Look, we have to be honest: The college football season is halfway finished, and we’ve already gotten a lot wrong. Then again, who hasn’t?
Twelve of The Athletic’s 28 staff members surveyed in August predicted Texas to win the national title. The Longhorns aren’t technically out of it at 4-2, but things haven’t gone according to plan. Next up? Five votes for Clemson, which is 3-3, and three votes each for LSU (still in it at 5-1, though hardly impressive) and Penn State (totally imploded and fired James Franklin).
The remaining votes went to Ohio State (looking good?), Notre Dame (lost twice but not out of it) and Georgia (we’ll see?).
So let’s hit reset: 29 college football writers and editors at The Athletic were surveyed this week for our updated midseason predictions for the College Football Playoff, Heisman Trophy and conference championships — plus some more bold calls.
Who will win the national championship?
Here are our midseason picks compared to our preseason picks, plus Austin Mock’s current odds for each team to win the title in The Athletic’s projections model:
65.5%
7.1%
22%
20.7%
0.0%
13%
3.4%
7.1%
10%
3.4%
0.0%
7%
3.4%
0.0%
6%
3.4%
0.0%
5%
0.0%
0.0%
14%
0.0%
3.6%
6%
0.0%
0.0%
4%
0.0%
0.0%
4%
0.0%
42.9%
1%
0.0%
10.7%
1%
0.0%
17.9%
0%
0.0%
10.7%
0%
Our staff is rallying around undefeated No. 1 Ohio State for a second consecutive national championship, which isn’t surprising. It has the best odds in Mock’s projections, too, at 22 percent — 8 points higher than anyone else — and has made winning look so easy that Ryan Day now has a higher career winning percentage than Knute Rockne.
Last year, Texas was No. 1 and undefeated at midseason, and it was our top pick to go all the way with 50 percent of the vote. It went on to lose in the Playoff semifinals. Will things work out differently for the Buckeyes?
The consensus is usually wrong at midseason. Excluding the pandemic-altered 2020 season, just six of the past 20 AP No. 1 teams at midseason have gone on to win the national championship: 2022 Georgia, 2021 Georgia, 2017 Alabama, 2012 Alabama, 2009 Alabama and 2004 USC.
Last year’s national champion, Ohio State, was ranked fourth at midseason, and it was second with 36.7 percent of our midseason vote. The furthest a team has come from behind in the polls at midseason to win a national title in the past 20 years? In the first year of the Playoff in 2014, Ohio State vaulted from No. 13 in mid-October to the championship.
Our second choice is AP No. 2 Miami, which is searching for its first national title since 2001. Six of 29 midseason voters picked the Canes. No other team got more than one vote: Notre Dame, Oregon, Texas A&M and, yes, Indiana, which has never finished higher than fourth in the polls.
Alabama, which is second in Mock’s odds, received zero midseason national championship votes. And yet: The Crimson Tide are our most popular pick to lose the national title game, receiving 10 of 29 votes.
Who will lose the national title game?
Ohio State vs. Alabama is the most popular national championship matchup combination, with all eight of those voters calling for a Buckeyes win.
Six people voted for Miami vs. Ohio State, and three have Ohio State vs. Texas A&M.
Who will win the Heisman Trophy?
Fernando Mendoza
QB
44.8%
Ty Simpson
QB
37.9%
Carson Beck
QB
6.9%
Dante Moore
QB
3.4%
Diego Pavia
QB
3.4%
Jeremiah Smith
WR
3.4%
Though Arch Manning was the preseason betting favorite and half of our staff picked Texas to win the national title, our Heisman choice in August was actually Ohio State superstar receiver Jeremiah Smith, who received more than half of the votes at the time.
Now, Ohio State is No. 1 and Smith is tied for the Big Ten lead with seven receiving touchdowns, but his numbers haven’t been attention-grabbing enough for the Heisman race. Smith has 40 catches for 505 yards, with his two 100-yard games coming against Ohio and Grambling. It’s enough to earn him second-team midseason All-America honors, but he received just one midseason vote to win the Heisman.
Still, in a wide-open race, BetMGM gives Smith the fourth-best odds behind Carson Beck, Ty Simpson and Fernando Mendoza.
Our midseason Heisman straw poll, based on who staffers would vote to win right now, was topped by Mendoza — who would be Indiana’s first winner — and Simpson. They also top our predictions here for who will actually win in December. Beck, the BetMGM favorite, received just two of our 29 votes.
How did our midseason Heisman picks work out last season? Pretty good, actually. Our four October vote-getters were, in fact, the four finalists — Travis Hunter, Ashton Jeanty, Cam Ward and Dillon Gabriel — though the winner, Hunter, was merely third in our midseason predictions.
Conference championship races
ACC
93.1%
54%
6.9%
14%
0%
11%
0%
9%
0%
4%
0%
4%
0%
2%
0%
1%
All but two voters picked Clemson to win the ACC in the preseason. And now all but two voters have picked Miami.
The Hurricanes are in their 22nd season in the ACC but are still searching for their first conference championship. Miami was undefeated at this point last year, too, but it lost to Georgia Tech and then squandered an ACC title game bid by blowing a lead to Syracuse. Will this season be different?
The only other two votes went to fellow unbeaten Georgia Tech, which trails Miami by 40 percentage points in Mock’s model.
Either Clemson or Florida State has won 12 of the past 13 ACC titles, the lone exception being Pitt in 2021. A fresh conference champion appears likely.
Big 12
93.1%
61%
3.4%
7%
3.4%
5%
0%
14%
0%
6%
0%
2%
0%
2%
0%
1%
0%
1%
It was hard to write about the Big 12 title race in the preseason without calling it “wide open.” Our preseason picks reflected that; seven of 16 Big 12 teams received at least one vote to win the conference, none more than six votes for Texas Tech and Arizona State.
Naturally, no Power 4 team has a better chance to win its conference in Mock’s model now than Texas Tech at 61 percent — and the Red Raiders equaled Miami in earning all but two conference title votes in our staff survey. Texas Tech is trying to win its first conference title since it was in the Southwest Conference in 1994, and so far, its offseason spending spree is paying off.
Cincinnati and Baylor received one Big 12 title vote apiece, with none going to unbeaten BYU.
Big Ten
86.2%
56%
6.9%
25%
6.9%
9%
0%
5%
0%
3%
0%
1%
Penn State received 15 of 28 preseason votes to win its first Big Ten title since 2016. Now the Nittany Lions are 0-3 in conference games and have an interim coach.
We’re back to a familiar favorite in Ohio State, which hasn’t actually won the Big Ten since 2020. All but four midseason votes went to the Buckeyes, with the others split between Indiana and Oregon, despite the Hoosiers’ historic win over the Ducks in Eugene last Saturday.
SEC
55.2%
43%
37.9%
13%
3.4%
14%
3.4%
13%
0%
7%
0%
4%
0%
2%
0%
1%
0%
1%
Who would have thought that Alabama would receive just two preseason SEC title votes, lose its opener to Florida State (which is now 3-3) and be our SEC favorite at midseason anyway?
Thanks to consecutive ranked wins over Georgia, Vanderbilt and Missouri, and the emergence of Ty Simpson as a Heisman candidate at quarterback, the Crimson Tide are back in a familiar position atop the SEC projections here — and Mock’s model agrees.
Texas A&M (11 voters) is the only other team to garner significant staff support for the SEC title, with one vote apiece going to Georgia and Ole Miss, who happen to play each other in Athens on Saturday. Neither Texas A&M nor Ole Miss has appeared in an SEC title game.
Reminder: The top five conference champions get an automatic bid to the Playoff, reserving at least one spot for a champion from the American, Mountain West, Conference USA, Sun Belt or MAC.
None of our 29 voters picked more than one G5 team to get into the field, and with byes no longer reserved for conference champions, nobody picked a G5 team to repeat Boise State’s feat of being a top-four seed.
The American is widely considered the best G5 conference, so it’s no surprise that it dominates our voting, with USF, Memphis and Tulane sweeping the votes. Mock’s odds favor Tulane over Navy, USF and Memphis, with small chances for teams in the Sun Belt (James Madison) and Mountain West (UNLV, Boise State and San Diego State).
Who will make the College Football Playoff?
We asked each voter to seed their 12 Playoff picks. Using a points system (12 for a No. 1 seed, 11 for a No. 2 seed, etc.), we came up with our staff’s bracket below.
Others receiving votes: Nebraska, Tulane, Utah, Washington, Missouri, Texas, Virginia, Vanderbilt, Cincinnati, Oklahoma, Baylor
After 41 teams received at least one Playoff vote in the preseason, we’re down to just 28 teams on the board through seven weeks of the regular season. Among the teams receiving zero votes: Clemson, which was in 100 percent of preseason brackets, and Penn State, which was in all but one. Texas was also in all preseason submissions and appears in just two now.
Four teams appeared in all 29 brackets at midseason: Ohio State, Miami, Alabama and Texas Tech. Just behind them at 28 of 29 are Texas A&M, Indiana and Oregon, with Ole Miss at 26 and Georgia at 25. Despite starting 0-2, Notre Dame is the only other team to appear in more than half the brackets at 16 of 29.
Ohio State also received a first-round bye in all 29 brackets, with Miami (26), Indiana (20), Alabama (15), Texas A&M (14) and Texas Tech (nine) next up. Oregon, Georgia and Ole Miss are the only other teams predicted to get a bye, by one person each.
Revisiting our preseason hot takes
We published a selection of bold predictions and hot takes from our staff in August. Some are still possible … and most didn’t age well. (But remember: They are supposed to be bold and improbable! What is college football if not either of those things?)
Austin Meek: One of these four teams will make the CFP: Minnesota, Kansas, Syracuse, Baylor.
Baylor is still on the board at a 5 percent chance in Mock’s projections!
Pete Sampson: USC will fire Lincoln Riley after a 7-5 season … and maybe before then. USC has invested in its football program with a new general manager and a big bet on NIL. Yet the talent level isn’t what it used to be under Pete Carroll or even the coaches who followed him. Despite the cost of pulling the ripcord on Riley after three years, a three-game skid at midseason of losses at Illinois, home to Michigan and at Notre Dame, makes Riley’s future untenable.
We’ll see? USC beat Michigan but lost to Illinois and has a trip to Notre Dame on Saturday.
Eric Single: Clay Helton’s Georgia Southern 35, Lincoln Riley’s USC 31.
USC 59, Georgia Southern 20.
Eric did, however, submit an unpublished prediction that “this will be Lane Kiffin’s last season coaching Ole Miss.” Let’s just say we’re monitoring what’s happening in Gainesville.
Seth Emerson: The CFP manages to match up Georgia with Carson Beck and Miami in a first-round game.
Possible!
Christopher Kamrani: Carson Beck will be replaced as Miami’s QB by late October.
Maybe if he goes 1-for-20 against Louisville on Friday?
Ralph D. Russo: Amid relentless rumors about James Franklin being considered for the vacant Florida job, Penn State is knocked out of the quarterfinals of the CFP. Franklin leaves to replace Billy Napier, who was fired in late December. The move ushers in a new era of coaching changes in the Playoff era.
Still a chance for part of this to be true?
Jill Thaw: Rutgers will go 2-1 against any combination of vs. Oregon, vs. Penn State and at Illinois.
TBD! Rutgers finishes with Oregon, Purdue, Illinois, Maryland, Ohio State and Penn State.
Jason Kirk: After Notre Dame wins the national title, everyone else will immediately restore the You Must Win A Conference To Get A Playoff Bye rule.
Notre Dame was 0-2. Now it has Mock’s fourth-best odds to win the national title at 10 percent.
Kate Hairopoulos: UNC and Bill Belichick take advantage of easy schedule to win nine games.
All he needs is six wins in a row against Cal, Virginia, Syracuse, Stanford, Wake Forest, Duke and NC State …
Scott Dochterman: The Big 12 will have four, maybe even five, teams tie at the top with 7-2 records.
Seven teams have fewer than two conference losses, so we can’t rule it out despite Texas Tech’s dominance of our survey.
Matt Brown: After Texas beats Texas A&M to close the regular season, Texas A&M beats Texas to win the SEC a week later … while Georgia and Alabama both miss the Playoff.
Some of this might hold up better than the rest.
Mitch Sherman: Arch Manning will throw for 300 yards in all of Texas’ first five games, including road wins at Ohio State and Florida. Then he’ll throw four interceptions against Oklahoma.
Reverse it and we get closer to the truth?
Grace Raynor: The loser of Ohio State-Texas wins it all.
Mock’s odds say: The Longhorns still have a 1 percent chance!
Midseason bold predictions and takes
Let’s try this again … and remember: Bold and improbable! That’s college football!
Mitch Light: Nico Iamaleava and Joey Aguilar each throw for 300 yards and three TDs as Tennessee beats UCLA in double-overtime in the Music City Bowl.
Scott Dochterman: A 9-3 team is going to get into the CFP. The depth in the SEC will earn it the benefit of doubt in the final selection process.
Ralph D. Russo: Bolder than five SEC teams making the CFP? How about four SEC teams in the quarters and three in the semifinals!
Chris Vannini: The SEC doesn’t get a top-four seed.
Jill Thaw: Penn State will hire Matt Rhule. He will kick off an era destined for 104-45 overall.
Antonio Morales and Cameron Teague Robinson: Nebraska makes the Playoff but loses Matt Rhule to Penn State.
Eric Single: Ohio State pulls a full Oregon, running the table in the Big Ten, winning the title game easily, then getting ambushed and blown out in the Rose Bowl off the bye by a conference foe peaking at the right time: USC.
Justin Williams: USC runs the table the rest of the way but still gets boxed out of the Big Ten title game by undefeated Ohio State and Indiana.
Ira Gorawara: USC upsets Notre Dame and Oregon on the road and plays for a Big Ten championship.
Matt Brown: Beating Michigan takes so much out of undefeated Ohio State emotionally that it subsequently loses to Indiana in the Big Ten title game and Texas Tech in its first CFP game in the quarterfinals.
Grace Raynor: Indiana will win more Playoff games than every non-Alabama SEC team.
Austin Meek: Indiana and Ohio State both win out. The Hoosiers upset Ohio State in the Big Ten title game, but the Buckeyes get revenge in the CFP semifinals.
Matthew Ho: LSU loses all its ranked matchups the rest of the season and Brian Kelly gets fired.
Seth Emerson: The SEC ends up with six coaching openings: Arkansas, Florida, Auburn and Kentucky, plus two coaches leave for other jobs.
Matt Baker: Seven SEC teams change coaches (not all firings).
Manny Navarro: Six more Power 4 coaches are going to be fired by season’s end: Florida’s Billy Napier, Auburn’s Hugh Freeze, Florida State’s Mike Norvell, North Carolina’s Bill Belichick, Wisconsin’s Luke Fickell and Kentucky’s Mark Stoops.
Joe Rexrode: Vanderbilt will be out of it at 8-3 entering the regular-season finale, but the Commodores will knock rival Tennessee out of the Playoff with an upset win in Knoxville.
Mark Cooper: Cincinnati is a bid-stealer, upsetting Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game and taking away what would have been Georgia’s place in the field.
David Ubben: Texas Tech doesn’t lose until the Playoff.
Stewart Mandel: Big 12 champ Texas Tech reaches the national championship game, upsetting SEC champ Texas A&M along the way, and Cody Campbell gives Joey McGuire a 25-year, $250 million contract extension.