NFL insiders have liked New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye. They just haven’t loved Maye the way Patriots fans and some media have loved him. Until now.

The gap between public perception and insider reality has closed over the past three weeks. Maye, who broke Tom Brady’s single-game, regular-season franchise record for completion rate in a 31-13 victory over Tennessee on Sunday, has resembled a top-tier QB in ways he had not before.

“For the first time, football people view Maye as possibly being a guy,” an exec from another team said. “He has always looked the part because of his measurables, but the game had not slowed down enough for him to develop that stuff.”

A headshot of Drake Maye

Drake Maye

Patriots

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The five-time reigning AFC East champion Buffalo Bills, idle Sunday after dropping from 4-0 to 4-2, now have more to worry about than the Kansas City Chiefs in the playoffs. The 5-2 Patriots, 23-20 winners at Buffalo in Week 5, are going to get better — much better — if Maye remains on his recent trajectory.

The Pick Six column begins there, with insider takes on what Maye has shown to earn their respect over the past three games, and what it means for New England — and for Buffalo. The full menu:

• Maye, Patriots change dynamics
• Almost paper-bag time for Raiders
• Trading Tua, Trevor or Kyler?
• Rodgers, meet the Betrayal Index
• John Harbaugh’s Super-long drought
• Two-minute drill: Wait, Giants lost?

1. The Bills went 24-6 in the AFC East from Brady’s Patriots exit through 2024. They finally have competition in the division.

Maye’s development and the Patriots’ growth come at an interesting time for the Bills. Buffalo ranks fifth in offensive EPA per play but only 23rd on the defensive side.

“The (Buffalo) defense is good when they have a lead, but they are small, and you can lean on them a little bit that way,” an opposing coach said.

Think Mike Vrabel (listed playing weight: 261) might want to lean on an undersized opponent? Did you see the way the 227-pound Rhamondre Stevenson was running in Tennessee?

To be clear, no one is writing off the Bills.

“Mentally, as much as anything else, it’s hard to stay that hungry, and I see Buffalo as a team that thinks they can flip the switch at some point, because they have been good for a long time,” an exec said. “They have been taking everybody’s best shot for 3-4 years now. It is just hard to stay sharp.”

New England looks hungry. The Patriots and Kansas City are the only teams to rank among the NFL’s top 10 in EPA per play on both sides of the ball this season. Buffalo ranked first on offense and second on defense from 2020-24. Times are changing, although more evidence is needed, as four of New England’s victories were against Miami, Carolina, New Orleans and Tennessee.

“They are a good team,” an opposing exec said of the Patriots. “I do not think they are a great team, but here is what they do not do: beat themselves. That is the nature of that coach (Vrabel). There is a fear factor of accountability.”

Maye’s willingness to take tough and detailed coaching, which he surely is getting from Vrabel and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, is an X-factor. Among the six first-round quarterbacks from the 2024 class, Denver’s Bo Nix and Washington’s Jayden Daniels appear to be wired similarly. Atlanta’s Michael Penix Jr. could fall into that category. Chicago’s Caleb Williams is fighting perceptions he isn’t wired that way, while Minnesota’s J.J. McCarthy must prove he can get on the field and stay there.

There’s little comparison statistically between Maye and the other second-year drafted quarterbacks starting for their teams this season.

Maye ranks third among 34 qualifying quarterbacks in EPA per pass play, passer rating and yards per attempt. He ranks second in completion rate (75.2 percent) after completing 21 of 23 Sunday, the highest rate by a Patriots QB (minimum 20 attempts) in a regular-season game.

As one coach who has studied New England put it, Maye has been for the past three weeks what fans and media seemed to think he was all along.

“His development is earning a loose leash from Vrabel and Josh,” another coach said while monitoring the New England game on TV.

When New England took possession at its 7-yard line Sunday, down 10-3 to Tennessee at the time, Vrabel and McDaniels put the ball in their quarterback’s hands. They passed on the first play, gaining 12. They passed on the second play, with Maye taking off for a gain of 19. Maye later hit Mack Hollins for a 22-yard gain, part of a 93-yard touchdown drive.

“That explosive (pass) to Hollins was (Aaron) Rodgers-like,” the coach added.

Maye’s accuracy on the run, fearlessness in the face of the rush and the way he protects the football have stood out.

“He stands in there, gets his ass kicked and still delivers an accurate ball,” the coach said.

A trip to the medical tent for a concussion evaluation Sunday served as another reminder of just how quickly second defenders arrive in the NFL. That is one area where Maye, who missed one game with a concussion in 2024, needs to hone his instincts. He passed the concussion protocol this time, despite banging the back of his helmet on the ground with great force.

It’s a long season. New England sits second behind 6-1 Indianapolis atop the AFC right now. Nobody saw that coming, but everything is temporary in the NFL. The 4-3 Chiefs appear increasingly formidable. Buffalo, despite its issues, still has arguably the toughest quarterback to defend in Josh Allen. Joe Burrow could return to Cincinnati.

The Patriots won’t play a top team until visiting Tampa Bay in Week 10. If they win that one, look out.

2. What would the late Buddy Diliberto say about the 2025 Raiders?

The Chiefs have long dominated the Raiders (and other teams), but the Raiders’ previous coach, Antonio Pierce, was at least competitive against them. Pierce had a 1-2 record with a minus-3 point differential in his final three games against Kansas City.

New coach Pete Carroll, who replaced Pierce this season, lost 31-0 to the Chiefs on Sunday. His top receiver (Jakobi Meyers) and best offensive player (Brock Bowers) did not play. He lost his best overall player, defensive end Maxx Crosby, to injury in the second quarter.

Still, 31-0? This was two weeks after the Colts outscored the Raiders 40-0 over the second and third quarters of a 40-6 rout, which makes it tougher to buy Carroll’s explanation that the injuries played a bigger role Sunday than he had expected.

“The Raiders, if they can’t run the ball, it’s just brutal,” an exec from another team said. “They were hard to watch even when they beat Tennessee.”

A Raiders team featuring the NFL’s highest-paid offensive coordinator, Chip Kelly, finished with three first downs against the Chiefs. That tied a franchise low reached just once previously in 1,051 total games, per Pro Football Reference, in 2008. No other NFL team has had fewer than four first downs in a game since 2006.

The Raiders ran only 30 offensive plays, displacing the 1980 New Orleans Saints for second on the list of fewest plays in a game since at least 1964, also per Pro Football Reference.

The 1980 Saints were so bad, New Orleans radio personality Bernard “Buddy” Diliberto nicknamed them the “Aints” and encouraged fans to wear paper sacks over their heads (fans complied). In an era when media traveled on team planes, the Saints banned Diliberto from theirs.

That 1-15 Saints team finished one game with only 31 offensive plays run, the fewest on record until the 1999 expansion Browns ran only 28 (teams typically run 60 or more plays).

It’s becoming that kind of season for the Raiders under Carroll, who was supposed to raise the floor for this team, along with new quarterback Geno Smith.

Instead, the Raiders’ point differential (-77) is fifth-worst in franchise history through the first seven games. Smith has 10 interceptions, tied with Tua Tagovailoa for most in the league.

Carroll’s willingness to embrace the absence of key players as a major factor in the outcome seemed unlike him, but we haven’t seen him lose by this much, this frequently. We also have not seen Carroll operate under an owner such as the mercurial Mark Davis. He worked under Robert Kraft, Paul Allen and Allen’s sister, Jody, during his last two NFL head-coaching stops.

It could be an interesting bye in Las Vegas.

3. Tua Tagovailoa, Trevor Lawrence and Kyler Murray have a combined $131 million in fully guaranteed salary next season. Can their teams get out of these deals?

Before last season, NFL executives lamented how teams had taken a “next man up” approach to paying quarterbacks near the top of the scale regardless of production or team success.

“Most of the coaches and GMs haven’t won enough to be able to tell their owners, ‘You know what? Let’s reset,’” a team contract negotiator said then.

And so, teams keep signing mid-tier quarterbacks to upper-tier deals, then hoping things work out. Seattle bucked the trend this offseason by trading Geno Smith and signing Sam Darnold for less. The results have been spectacular so far.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins, now 1-6, benched Tagovailoa during a 31-6 loss to the previously 1-5 Cleveland Browns. Lawrence completed fewer than half his passes during a 35-7 loss to the Rams (four drops were a factor). Murray missed a second consecutive Arizona Cardinals start due to injury; the offense improved statistically with Jacoby Brissett in the lineup for close losses to Indianapolis and Green Bay, teams with a combined record of 10-2-1.

An NFL executive wondered Sunday whether these teams could trade quarterbacks among each other, or whether teams such as the winless New York Jets, who benched Justin Fields on Sunday, might have interest. The New Orleans Saints will presumably take a long look at rookie Tyler Shough this season, giving them a feel for how they might want to address the position longer term.

“Maybe you get someone to take on a deal and get a pick, similar to the Brock Osweiler trade,” this exec said.

Cleveland acquired Osweiler and a second-round pick from Houston in 2017, freeing the Texans from the quarterback’s $16 million salary.

Another NFL exec could not have been much blunter during our summer conversation on team spending and quarterback play. He thought the Dolphins erred by keeping Tagovailoa on their roster long enough for $54 million of his 2026 salary to become fully guaranteed.

“Their time to get out of that deal was this year,” the exec said in June. “That is what they should have done. They should have cut him before his guarantees vested.”

A headshot of Tua Tagovailoa

Tua Tagovailoa

Dolphins

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Trouble was, coach Mike McDaniel was heading into a pivotal fourth season still seeking his first playoff victory. Starting anew at quarterback might have killed his chances for a revival in 2025. But with the Dolphins falling to 1-6 with a listless performance Sunday, Miami is experiencing the worst of both worlds: One of the NFL’s worst teams is now pot-committed to a Tier 3 quarterback.

Tagovailoa, who tossed three interceptions without a touchdown and fumbled three times in the rain-soaked loss to the Browns, is on pace for career worsts in yards per attempt (6.4), passer rating (82.1), sack rate (6.8 percent) and explosive pass rate (11.8 percent). His EPA per pass play (minus-.02) is his worst since his rookie season.

The Jaguars cannot relate just yet, but their day could be approaching. They have a first-year coach (Liam Coen) and a winning record (4-3). With coaches and executives around the league nearly unanimous in their belief that Lawrence lacks consistent accuracy, upper-tier production could be elusive.

One exec wondered how long Coen will want to stay the course with the laid-back Lawrence after working with the uber-competitive Baker Mayfield and Matthew Stafford in Coen’s previous stops. Tagovailoa and Murray fit similar profiles. No one sees them as natural leaders.

The Jaguars owe $37 million in fully guaranteed salary to Lawrence in 2026. The figure is $54 million for the Dolphins with Tagovailoa and $39 million for the Cardinals with Murray. All three landed in Tier 3 — guys teams win with, not because of — when 50 coaches and executives cast votes in 2025 Quarterback Tiers.

4. Aaron Rodgers’ team scored 30-plus points for the 100th time in his starting career, counting playoffs. For the 12th time in those games, Rodgers’ team lost.

After our recently published Betrayal Index showed the uphill battle Dak Prescott is fighting to overcome the Cowboys’ leaky defense this season, readers asked to see what the numbers said about Rodgers over the course of his career.

Then, on cue, Rodgers’ Pittsburgh Steelers lost at Cincinnati on Thursday night, even after Rodgers’ 68-yard touchdown pass to Pat Freiermuth put Pittsburgh ahead with 2:21 remaining. This was a classic quarterback betrayal game in that the QB performed at a high enough level to win in most scenarios, only to lose when his defense and/or special teams faltered.

Rodgers now ranks tied with Tony Romo for fourth on the Betrayal Index among 32 quarterbacks with the most starts (including playoffs) since 2000, per TruMedia.

We calculate this by taking where Rodgers ranks among the 32 QBs in EPA per start (fourth), then subtracting where his teams ranked among the units for the other QBs in combined defensive/special teams EPA per start. The difference between those rankings (-19) is Rodgers’ Betrayal Index number.

Rodgers is one of five quarterbacks whose team has scored at least 30 points in 75 total starts, including playoffs, since 2000. Of the five, only Drew Brees, the most betrayed QB of his generation, has lost a higher percentage of these games.

Rodgers has 301 touchdown passes and 22 interceptions in 100 total games when his team has scored at least 30 points. The 13.7-to-1 ratio of TDs to INTs is more than double the ratio for any other QB with at least 75 such games since 2000.

Rodgers had four touchdown passes and two interceptions against the Bengals. One of those picks, on a deep ball to DK Metcalf, reflected another type of betrayal.

“It was Metcalf’s fault, and no one is saying it,” a coach from another team said. “They are saying, ‘One-high safety, Rodgers predetermined his read.’ He actually predetermined that the guy is going to run full speed the whole route.”

The all-22 video showed Metcalf slowing his route, then trying to catch up to the ball.

5. John Harbaugh is among 14 coaches to spend 200-plus games and win a Super Bowl with the same team. Only two stayed in the role longer than Harbaugh has without winning another title.

Retired NFL defensive lineman Chris Canty, who made 33 of his 128 career starts with Harbaugh’s Baltimore Ravens from 2013-15, raised a pointed question regarding his former coach.

“What is the shelf life around a Super Bowl?” Canty asked on ESPN’s Unsportsmanlike.

As the table below shows, only Don Shula and Mike Tomlin lasted longer without winning another title among the 14 longest-tenured coaches to win it all with their teams (every coach listed has at least 200 games and a Super Bowl title with one team). Shula and Tomlin each made additional Super Bowl appearances without winning it all, but both lasted more than a decade longer after those games as well.

When is it time for a team and its longtime successful coach to part ways?

“The NFL has completely turned over (since 2012), the game is completely different, this generation of athlete is completely different,” Canty added. “I’m just not sure John Harbaugh remains the best option to lead the Baltimore Ravens forward.”

Harbaugh’s message did not seem stale while Baltimore ranked sixth in win rate (.686) and second in point margin (+395) over the three most recent full seasons (2022-24).

This 1-5 start shines light on the long Super Bowl drought.

In the 12 full seasons since Baltimore last reached a Super Bowl, four other AFC teams have gotten there: Kansas City five times, New England four times, Denver twice and Cincinnati once. The teams with Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Joe Burrow, in other words.

“They won the whole f—ing thing with (Joe) Flacco,” an exec from another team said. “The guy (Harbaugh) knows how to do it. You give him a guy (Jackson) that can’t win the whole thing because he can’t pass accurately enough in the playoffs to have the four-game magical carpet ride that Flacco took them on, so they are a championship game contender and out, a divisional game contender and out.”

Jackson’s development as a passer has raised expectations for Harbaugh to get back to the biggest stage. But the Ravens have only four playoff victories since their Super Bowl appearance, tied with Houston and Indianapolis for sixth-most in the AFC.

The current Ravens have far surpassed previous franchise-worst totals for points allowed (194) and point margin (-50) through six games.

Jackson’s potential return from a hamstring injury and a soft post-bye schedule offer a path for Baltimore to regain traction in a weak AFC North. In the meantime, the bye invites a bigger-picture look at where Baltimore stands in Harbaugh’s 18th season.

When is it time to move on?

Andy Reid leaving Philadelphia for Kansas City is a potential comp. Carroll and Seattle parting ways could be another.

Harbaugh, hired in 2008, won it all with Baltimore after his fifth season.

“I think he is a fantastic coach,” Canty said, “but sometimes the message grows stale within the organization.”

A coach from another team predicted Harbaugh would revamp the defensive staff, possibly bringing back current Dolphins defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver and/or current Titans defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson.

“He will get the band back together on defense, and then he’ll fire a couple of guys on offense for effect,” this coach predicted.

6. Two-minute drill: Wait, the Giants led 19-0 in the fourth quarter and lost?

Let’s first credit the Broncos for scoring 33 fourth-quarter points to overcome a 19-0 deficit through three quarters and win, 33-32. But let’s face it, no one felt great about this game, unless you happened to have Nix in your fantasy lineup (he became the first player with two touchdowns rushing and two passing in the same quarter, per Elias Sports Bureau).

“I told them (to) enjoy this — there is some grit there, they didn’t quit,” Broncos coach Sean Payton said. “But it’s important we don’t let the euphoria of a win like that cloud the things that need to get cleaned up tomorrow.”

The Broncos were already the only team in league history to overcome a 19-0 deficit through three quarters and win. In 1983, rookie John Elway tossed three fourth-quarter touchdown passes against Baltimore, the team that drafted him and then traded him when Elway refused to report, to win that game 21-19.

Denver produced the second such comeback victory Sunday, this time at the Giants’ expense. Teams are now 2-36 after trailing 19-0 through three quarters, per Pro Football Reference.

Now, for the Giants’ part in this. How did they lose after leading 19-0 through three quarters and 26-8 when Denver took possession with 10:14 remaining?

Two three-play drives, one ending with Jaxson Dart’s interception deep in Giants territory, consumed only 1:34 of fourth-quarter clock. That gave Denver time. The Broncos also succeeded on a late two-point conversion (their second of the fourth quarter), while the Giants missed an extra point (their second miss of the game).

Pass rusher Brian Burns seemed to be lamenting the Giants’ decision to drop eight players into coverage on Denver’s winning drive. But as they say, it is almost never just one play.

This game featured five non-penalty plays in the final six minutes of regulation with EPA swings of 2.0 or greater in the Broncos’ favor, tied for the most for any team in a game since at least 2000, per TruMedia.

A pass interference penalty favoring Denver on fourth-and-3 with 6:38 to play also hit the 2.0 EPA threshold. The Broncos overcame three plays with EPA swings of at least 2.2 or greater in favor of the Giants in the final 1:08, including a 38-yard pass interference penalty that set up New York’s go-ahead touchdown.

• About those “juiced” footballs: Early in the season, when kickers were booming field goals from long distances at elevated rates, I looked at how the development could affect strategy.

Kickers made five field goals longer than 55 yards in each of the season’s first two weeks. Only once previously since 2000, a span of 431 weeks, had kickers made more kicks from that distance.

Could it continue? It did, for two weeks. Teams made five kicks longer than 55 yards in Week 3 and again in Week 4. The numbers have fallen since then, but the trend remains upward.

Coaches and analysts (including me) speculated that new rules letting teams more thoroughly break in the footballs used for kicking were leading to “juiced” balls that carried longer than in the past. That could be a factor, but it’s clear kickers have been making more of these super-long kicks anyway. The current spike is a continuation of what happened last season. The table below makes that clear.

Zooming out further, we can see the rise in successful kicks from both 51-55 yards and from longer than 55 yards.

Green Bay’s Lucas Havrisik and Dallas’ Brandon Aubrey both hit from 61 yards Sunday. Kickers have now made five kicks longer than 60 this season, two more than kickers made last season or the season before. The previous high was four in 2021.

• Remarkable 49ers: The 49ers’ 5-2 record is one of the more impressive feats of this season, given their ridiculous injury situation.

“The coaching is so good there,” an opposing coach said. “Both sides of the ball. You look at what is going on, they should not have the record that they have. But they do.”

Christian McCaffrey suddenly breaking out for 129 yards and two touchdowns on the ground in a 20-10 victory over Atlanta overshadowed the 49ers’ best defensive effort since Week 1, despite not having Nick Bosa or Fred Warner, among others. That was 2024 seventh-round pick Tatum Bethune filling in for Warner and collecting 10 tackles, nine of them short of the first-down marker, including two at or behind the line of scrimmage.

• Dak decidedly not betrayed: The Cowboys finished their 44-22 victory over Washington with 13.1 combined EPA on defense (12.2) and special teams (0.9), best for them since the 2024 opener against Cleveland. This was a sweet reversal for the Cowboys, whose defense had made Dak Prescott the most betrayed QB in the league through Week 6.

More importantly, the game also exposed Washington quarterback Jayden Daniels’ durability concerns. He has missed games in each of his first two seasons and could miss more after injuring his hamstring during an awkward sack Sunday.

• Packers roll, sort of: The Packers are 4-1-1 after coming from behind to beat Arizona, 27-23. Does anyone feel great about them? Probably not, but Green Bay possesses the NFL’s youngest roster, so there should be growth over the course of the season. The talent is there. The record is good. The offense ranks third in EPA per play. The defense ranks 18th. They get a rested Rodgers on the road next week. Will it be a shootout?

• Cardinals’ frustration: The loss to Green Bay made Arizona the third team in NFL history to lose five in a row within a season, none by more than four points, per Pro Football Reference. The 2017 49ers and 1984 Browns are also on that list. Arizona gets a bye, then Dallas, Seattle, San Francisco, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay and the Rams. Rough!

•Bears buying time: The Bears’ first four-game winning streak since 2018 has them with a 4-2 record and eighth in the NFC, just behind 4-2 Detroit, which plays Monday night. The streak is providing a longer runway for Caleb Williams to develop without the scrutiny that comes in defeat. He has struggled against pressure and finished Sunday with 172 yards passing, minus-2 yards rushing, no touchdowns and one interception. But a win is a win.

•Not Harbaugh’s formula: Remember when the Chargers used the first pick of the Jim Harbaugh era for offensive tackle Joe Alt? Someone asked Harbaugh about the need for offensive weaponry. Harbaugh replied that offensive linemen are weapons, the way he sees things.

That comment captured Harbaugh’s ethos. With Alt and fellow mainstay tackle Rashawn Slater injured, the Chargers have lost much of what made them a Jim Harbaugh team. Now, their defense is crumbling, especially against Indianapolis in a 38-24 defeat Sunday.

Harbaugh’s teams historically have run the ball and played strong defense. On Sunday, the Chargers passed 15 times on their first 21 early down plays, the second-highest rate in the league for Week 7. They also suffered their worst defensive EPA game of the Harbaugh era.

The teams combined for 49 first downs, 846 yards and eight touchdowns. Quarterback Justin Herbert led the Chargers in rushing (31 yards). The Chargers never were in control.

Absolutely nothing about this game aligned with how Harbaugh wants to play

The Colts had something to do with that. They’re one of the NFL’s best teams so far. Alt is closer to returning for the Chargers. They need him.