4h agoThu 23 Oct 2025 at 2:44amMarket snapshot
- ASX 200: flat at 9,032 points (live numbers below)
- Australian dollar: flat at 64.84 US cents
- S&P 500: -0.5% to 6,699 points
- Nasdaq: -0.9% to 22,740 points
- FTSE: +0.9% to 9,515 points
- EuroStoxx 600: -0.2% to 572 points
- Spot gold: -0.3% to $US4,078/ounce
- Brent crude: +2.33% to US64.05/barrel
- Iron ore: flat at $US105.15/tonne
- Bitcoin: + 0.64% to $US108,296
Prices current around 1:45pm AEDT
Live updates on the major ASX indices:
1h agoThu 23 Oct 2025 at 5:39am
Bye bye!
That’s it for the team today.
THANK YOU so much for joining us.
Stay tuned to the ABC for more coverage of leadership changes at Optus.
And RBA governor Michele Bullock will be speaking tomorrow.
Talk soon!
1h agoThu 23 Oct 2025 at 5:10amOptus leadership changes
Optus has announced the planned retirement of Chief Financial Officer Michael Venter, who will also step down from his role as a Director on the Optus Board next year.
“On behalf of the Optus Board, I want to extend our sincere thanks to Michael Venter for his service as both interim CEO prior to Stephen Rue’s appointment, and most recently as an Optus Board Director,” Optus Board Chairman, John Arthur, said.
While Optus CEO Stephen Rue said, “Michael has decided to retire from executive life to pursue a portfolio career, and I wish to thank him for his significant contribution to Optus over the past four years, including the time he spent as interim CEO before I joined the company.”
Mark Potter, Chief Information Officer, has also chosen to depart Optus in March 2026 and John McInerney named incoming Chief Information Officer starting in November 2025.
“Following long-term and open discussions, Mark has decided that early next year is the right time to leave Optus after four productive years and having laid strong technology foundations for Optus’ transformation plans. I wish him all the best with his next chapter,” Stephen Rue said.
Optus has suffered a series of scandals in recent years.
The most recent being an Optus network upgrade earlier this year that led to a triple-0 outage which was linked to three deaths.
1h agoThu 23 Oct 2025 at 5:10am
More from the NAB on inflation, jobs and interest rates
The NAB says the August CPI indicator signals an uncomfortably strong rise in Q3 trimmed mean inflation of 0.9% qoq (with upside risk).
“We recently pushed our rate call out on the back of higher inflation in the quarter, though still expect the next move to be down.”
“At face value, the labour force data skews the risk to an earlier cut,” the bank said.
The tension is clearly between stalling disinflation and the prospect of rising unemployment.
2h agoThu 23 Oct 2025 at 4:50amOil price surges
The price of Brent Crude is up sharply in Asian trade today.
At 3:30pm AEDT it was up 3% to $US64.51/barrel.
Here’s some oil market analysis from RBC Capital Markets.
“… action by the US Department of Treasury to impose sanctions on the two largest Russian oil exporters, Rosneft and Lukoil, marks the most material move to date by the United States to shutter the Russian war [Autonomous Trade Measures] ATM.
“We have consistently argued that serious secondary sanctions on the major Russian oil exporters would force refiners that rely on access to US capital markets to seek alternative sources of supply.”
“In the case of Iran, the secondary sanctions imposed by the US Congress in 2010 forced refiners in India and Turkey to largely shun Iranian barrels, leaving Chinese independent refiners as the principal purchaser of these distressed cargoes.
“Of course, the rigor of enforcement will matter, but it is worth noting that during the periods of peak sanctions enforcement (2010 to 2015 and 2018 to 2020), Iran’s exports fell by around 1 mb/d and 2 mb/d, respectively.
“Moreover, it is our understanding that there was a deliberate decision by the previous administration to scale back sanctions enforcement to allow more Iranian barrels on the market and keep oil prices contained.
“If the Trump administration does indeed back today’s words by action, we anticipate that refiners seeking to retain access to US capital markets will forgo Russian barrels.”
2h agoThu 23 Oct 2025 at 4:31am
‘No comment on M&A activity but keep an eye in opportunities’: BHP
When asked about mergers and acquisitions being off the cards, BHP chair Ross McEwan said no comment on any activity but “keep an eye on what’s going on in the marketplace and opportunities that come up”.
“As an organisation, we have scale, so that doesn’t wake us up at night and say we have to get more scale.
“But we do want to continue the path of growth and we just see some great opportunities that we’ve gone organically.
“Be it small or large, we keep an eye on it, but it has to be a good value for our shareholders.”
2h agoThu 23 Oct 2025 at 4:23am
ASX vs the economy
The key ASX index constituents are typically much larger companies than those that exist elsewhere in our domestic economy. Best not to confuse ASX index performance with what is happening in the economy
– Alex
Very true, Alex, but they are also big employers.
Thanks for the blog contribution.
2h agoThu 23 Oct 2025 at 4:18amIt all comes down to jobs… jobs, jobs, jobs
This is a long blog post but it’s important.
It goes to the heart of the state of play in the Australian economy and the upcoming November RBA interest rates decision.
It’s an excerpt from the National Australia Bank’s (yes it has a lot of research out today) “Forward View Australia”.
It shows the near-term outlook for the economy, inflation and interest rates rests with, basically, the ongoing demand for labour.
“In quarter average terms, the [September] unemployment result was in line with our 4.3% forecast (and marginally higher than the RBA’s August SoMP forecast of 4.2%),” the NAB said.
“While the labour force data can be volatile on a month-to-month basis, the sharp rise in September does point to the risk of a deterioration in the labour market.
“However, further data will be needed to confirm if the latest rise is a trend.
“We still view an unemployment rate of 4¼% as broadly sustainable, and the headline figure was consistent with this, tracking just above 4% for the greater part of a year.
“Employment growth has clearly slowed since mid-to-late 2024.
“It has tracked below 15k per month through mid-2025 in trend terms, although this accelerated to around 20k per month in September.
“Population growth has also slowed from its peak but has stabilised at an elevated level.
“This suggests that absent a further easing in the participation rate, the risk remains to the upside for the unemployment rate.
“How much of the acceleration in private sector activity growth flows through to labour demand will be an important dynamic overcoming months.”
Now … we wait for more data!
2h agoThu 23 Oct 2025 at 4:02am
More gold upside?
Gold has seen an extraordinary multi-year bull market.
It’s reached record high multiple times recently.
The price pulled back earlier this week, but some analysts believe — as the song goes — the only way is up … at least for now.
“Despite the volatile sell-off this week after having raised our gold price forecasts, we retain our bullish tilt,” RBA Capital Markets wrote in a note.
“We continue to view our new low scenario as a likely floor and think this pullback will prove a good entry point.”
A reminder this is not financial advice.
3h agoThu 23 Oct 2025 at 3:52amTough November RBA interest rates call
The Reserve Bank pays special attention to what businesses tell the NAB (via its quarterly business survey) about their margins.
The RBA also looks at measures of capacity utilisation (again via the NAB survey).
On business margins, the NAB sees ongoing pressures. Margin squeeze, or costs weighing on revenue, is easing, but only gradually.
And on capacity utilisation, demand continues to outstrip supply in some corners of the economy.
Remember the RBA is looking for aggregate supply to equal aggregate (or total) demand in the economy.
This keeps core inflation low and steady.
The long and short of it is pretty simple: if, and that’s a big “if”, the RBA views the lift in the September unemployment rate to 4.5% and a one-off, it’s more likely to hold interest rates steady on Melbourne Cup Day.
If it sees trend unemployment rising, it’s more likely to ease policy.
Crucially though, the NAB business survey shows cost pressures remain for businesses, and their margins are under a bit of pressure.
You wouldn’t know by looking at the share market though!
3h agoThu 23 Oct 2025 at 3:35am
South Korea property wobbles: Oxford Economics
The Bank of Korea has held interest rates steady at 2.5 per cent.
Its comments on the nation’s property market, though, inspired this note from Oxford Economics:
“The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its policy rate unchanged, extending its pause in the easing cycle as we (and consensus) expected,” head of Asia economics Louise Loo said.
In the accompanying press conference, BoK Governor Rhee Chang-yong cited “instability in the real estate sector” as the primary driver for the pause, with housing in the Seoul metropolitan area now “showing signs of overheating”.
“Concerns over the increased tariff-driven KRW volatility over the past month also likely stayed BoK’s hand,” Louise Loo said.
3h agoThu 23 Oct 2025 at 3:22am
Karoon Energy share prices surge 8pc as Q3 sales revenue up
The energy sector has again been leading in the market today.
Offshore oil and gas producer Karoon Energy‘s share price soared by 8% today, making it the best performer in the index (so far).
CEO Julian Fowles told the market that the company’s sales revenue rose 3% to $US164.1 million in the third quarter of 2025, largely contributed by “higher average realised oil prices” of its flagship Baúna project in Brazil.
Dr Fowles added that “strong cashflows” also helped the company reduce its net debt, from $US237.9
million to $US148.7 million as at 30 September 2025.
Karoon’s share price was trading at $1.547, giving it a market cap of $1.04 billion.
3h agoThu 23 Oct 2025 at 3:12am
Consumers weighting for ‘bargains’
Super Retail Group held its AGM today.
Its brands include automotive retailer Supercheap Auto, outdoor and leisure retailers Macpac, and BCF, and sporting retailer Rebel.
E&P Capital has offered up its thoughts on Super Retail Group.
It sees sales driven by promotional campaigns.
“While sales growth in the past 2 months has softened slightly, the key trading window for 1H26 is the Black Friday/Christmas period and industry feedback / data continues to suggest that consumer spending remains clustered around key promotional events,” E&P Capital retail analyst Kade Madigan noted.
“As such, we continue to expect an improvement in the momentum of consumer spending through November/December.
“[Super Retail Group’s] share price has been weak across the last 6 weeks, impacted by the recent change in management.
“We would expect that today’s update being in line with consensus expectations should provide comfort that recent movements in management personnel have not significantly disrupted operational momentum at the divisional level,” she said.
4h agoThu 23 Oct 2025 at 3:00am
Fitch on interest rate outlook
BMI (a unit of Fitch Solutions) has just published its outlook for Australia’s interest rates.
Its key views are listed below:
- We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to ease rates by a further 25bps to 3.35% by the end of FY2025/26.
- We think that inflation will accelerate above the 2-3% target range in the coming months, limiting space for rate cuts.
- Australia’s improving economic trajectory compared with other developed markets will allow the currency to strengthen to USD0.68 by end-2025 and USD0.70 by end-2026.
4h agoThu 23 Oct 2025 at 2:45am
BHP on US/Australia critical mineral agreement
US President Donald Trump and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese signed a critical minerals agreement aimed at countering China on Monday.
“I think, it’s a little bit early to actually see the outcomes of what we see as a good meeting between the prime minister of Australia and the president of the United States,” BHP Chair Ross McEwan said.
“But I think it was a very good meeting to start those conversations.”
4h agoThu 23 Oct 2025 at 2:35am
BHP CEO flags ‘difficult decisions’
BHP Group’s CEO said the company may be forced to take “difficult decisions” for its metallurgical coal business in Australia if there were no regulatory changes to support it.
The world’s biggest mining company held its annual general meeting today.
BHP last month said it would suspend operations and cut 750 jobs at a Queensland coking coal mine it shares with a unit of Mitsubishi, blaming low prices and high state government royalties that have dented its returns.
“Without change, there’s without doubt going to be more difficult decisions that are going to be made,” CEO Mike Henry said at the miner’s annual general meeting.
4h agoThu 23 Oct 2025 at 2:22am
Love of economics
David – I love economics too…for Me it was Mrs Smith from Year 11. She was delightfully quirky & left me with the mind set of “don’t take the theory’s to literally (Because its likely to sound absurd), pay attention to the background lesson”…took that mindset into my economics degree. Best of all she asked two philosophical questions & made a statement that broke some conventional trains of thought, that had really helped later on.
– allan
G’day Allan,
Thanks for sharing.
The thing that got me over the line was this:
“It’s curious isn’t it class,” Mr Devin said, “10% of the world’s population is dying of obesity and the bottom 10% are dying of starvation”.
He was referring to inequality or the haves and have nots, and, at the time, the developed world and the developing world.
It resonated with me like nothing else.
DT
5h agoThu 23 Oct 2025 at 2:00am
Financial markets quiet … with one outlier
Wall Street pulled back modestly last night by Asian markets seem to be holding up reasonably well … with the exception of the Nikkei 225.
It’s down over 1% at 1pm AEDT.
On that front it’s worth watching the Japanese 10-Year bond yield.
Analysts say the bond market could draw money from Wall Street if the risk-free rate approaches 2%
It’s currently 1.65%.
5h agoThu 23 Oct 2025 at 1:46am
Gotta love economics
OK this a little bit of a personal post from me.
I love economics.
I fell in love with it in year 11 — helped by a great teacher, Terry Devin.
I wish the same for other students.
The Reserve Bank has published its latest Bulletin.
It devotes a section to the progress of the uptake of economics in high schools… because it recently dropped off a cliff.
Here’s an excerpt from the RBA October Bulletin.
“The RBA’s 2024 student survey finds that students across New South Wales continued to view the field of economics as relevant and beneficial to society; however, perceptions of the study of Economics in Years 11 and 12 remained less favourable.”
“New insights from the 2024 survey highlight the role of early exposure to Economics through the Years7–10Commerce elective, particularly following the introduction of a core economics topic into the 2019 Commerce syllabus.
“This early engagement is associated with greater student interest, confidence and understanding of Economics.
“Notably, the largest improvements were observed for students from lower socio-economic backgrounds, who are under-represented in Economics.
“These findings suggest that an increased focus on efforts to give more Years7–10students the opportunity to engage with Economics could help to broaden participation and improve perceptions of the subject among a more diverse cohort of Years 11–12students.”
You can read more on the RBA’s website.
5h agoThu 23 Oct 2025 at 1:30am
House prices outpace wage growth by so much you probably want to look away
The wildness of our market is in full effect. Sydney’s median house price jumped 3.4% last quarter, an increase of $58,148.
If that percentage seems familiar it’s because it’s same as the backwards looking Wage Price Index of how much wages are rising by.
But the WPI is going up by 3.4% a year, not per quarter.