If you gave the Indiana Pacers a dose of truth serum this morning, I think they’d tell you it would have been better for them had they lost the NBA championship on their home floor, in Game 6 of the finals to the Oklahoma City Thunder, rather than three days later on the road.
In that world, they would have been discouraged watching the Thunder celebrate on their home floor, Gainbridge Fieldhouse. It would have been painful to watch Oklahoma City whoop it up in their house. However, if that had happened, Tyrese Haliburton would have ended his season with a strained calf, and he would have had four months to let it heal.
He wouldn’t have torn his right Achilles tendon, seven minutes into Game 7. That, possibly the worst case scenario, is what happened, though.
In a world where it didn’t, Myles Turner would probably still be a Pacer.
The stunning, domino effect conclusion to Turner’s decade-long stay in Indy came Tuesday, when he agreed to a four-year, $107 million deal with the Pacers’ division rivals, the Milwaukee Bucks. That the 29-year-old Turner left was a shock, but not something that seemed impossible. He’d been in trade rumors for years, he didn’t have a great finals against OKC and he was still liked by many teams around the league as he entered unrestricted free agency.
That it was Milwaukee that got him, though, was a shot to Indy’s solar plexus.
There’s no love lost between the franchises. Including first-round playoff series in 2024 and 2025, “we’ve played them 20 times the last two years,” Pacers coach Rick Carlisle noted during the Pacers’ playoff run. After the Pacers vanquished Milwaukee in five games this year, Haliburton’s father, John, came onto the court at Gainbridge to celebrate — and got in Giannis Antetokounmpo’s face. The Greek Freak didn’t care for the elder Haliburton’s antics and told him so before leaving the floor.
Antetokounmpo’s future crossed Turner’s this week. The Bucks, desperate to keep up with the powers in the Eastern Conference as Antetokounmpo considers his future amid significant cap challenges, took an unprecedented step to land Turner. Milwaukee took on serious financial baggage to get him.
Needing to clear enough room to sign Turner, the Bucks waived and stretched Damian Lillard’s contract, taking the two-year, $113 million extension for the 34-year-old star guard that was set to begin next season and spreading it over five years via the NBA’s stretch provision. It was the largest single use of the stretch provision in league history.
If you add the nearly $27 million or so per year that the Bucks will pay the 29-year-old Turner to the yearly outlay they’ll now shoulder in dead money for Lillard, who’ll likely miss most of next season after suffering his own devastating Achilles tear in the playoffs against, ironically, the Pacers, Milwaukee will pay out nearly $50 million per season through 2028-29 for one position: Turner’s.
Pacers ownership was less willing to pay tax for a team that was less likely to contend next season without Tyrese Haliburton. (Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
There’s no sugarcoating how devastating it is for Indiana to lose Turner, the team’s longest-tenured player and the guy who wore the struggles and the triumphs of this past season on his sleeve. During the finals, Turner said he was so stressed that his hair was falling out. He’s been open about the mental health issues he’s gone through during his decade with the Pacers, and how coming out at the other end as a key member of a finals team was beyond cathartic. Carlisle, Turner said, was the first coach he’s had in Indiana who believed in him.
The feeling was mutual.
“I don’t think it’s any secret that the franchise, at this particular moment, that (re-signing Turner) is the No. 1 priority,” Carlisle said on his weekly radio show in Indianapolis after the finals.
“I don’t know anything about money or numbers or years, or any of that kind of stuff, but Myles is a very important part of what we’ve done here, what we’ve been doing. He’s a very important part of the history of the franchise, certainly over the last decade. I know that will be a big topic. I’m not privy to every little conversation going on there, but Myles is a very important part of what we’re doing. That will be a big thing.”
Once Haliburton went down, however, Indy became vulnerable.
“It changed everything,” one league source said Tuesday.
Until that moment, ownership was willing to pay luxury tax for the first time in 20 years. Since acquiring Haliburton from the Sacramento Kings in 2022, the Pacers meticulously built around him, bringing in players who were perfect fits for his growing playmaking abilities. They had opened up a two- to three-year window, having signed all of their current key players through the 2026-27 season, and all but wing Aaron Nesmith through 2027-28. However, it was all centered on Haliburton and his incredible offensive gifts. He makes everything go for the Pacers. He’s the reason they can play at such a withering pace for 48 minutes, wearing out opponents who can’t stay the course.
No one was better at getting Turner open looks on the move, where he’s more effective, rather than trying to post up. Turner struggled mightily without Haliburton on the floor.
A league source said the Pacers’ offer to Turner topped out at around $23 million per year, short of what he got from Milwaukee. Turner essentially wanted what he got from the Bucks, something closer to $27 million a year.
With the compounding luxury tax, had Indiana given Turner what he wanted, it would have paid around $11 million in taxes on top of his salary. In addition, by being a taxpayer, the Pacers would have lost the refund money that teams staying out of the tax receive annually from taxpaying teams, which is usually between $5 and $10 million per year.
Pacers ownership was less willing to pay tax for a team that was less likely to contend next season without Haliburton. It was still willing to pay it — to a point. The most generous prediction, though, even within the building, is that Indy could be a middle-of-the-pack team next year. Realistically, just as with Boston and other teams that lost their star player, the more likely result is that Indiana takes a step back.
Right now, Indiana only has Tony Bradley signed to play center next season, having picked up his $2.94 million club option for next season late last week. The Pacers could try to pry a center loose from elsewhere with a trade. Forward Bennedict Mathurin, a restricted free agent next summer, could at least get such discussions rolling.
Ironically, though, there’s another potential option, one that the Pacers tried just a few years ago.
In the summer of 2022, the Pacers gave a four-year, $133 million offer sheet to Deandre Ayton, who was a restricted free agent with the Phoenix Suns at the time. It was the biggest offer sheet in NBA history. Ayton had worn out his welcome in Phoenix, a year after being a vital part of the Suns’ finals run, where they lost to … Milwaukee … a year before. However, Ayton’s play dropped badly during the ’22 playoffs, to the point where then-coach Monty Williams benched him after just 17 minutes of Phoenix’s Game 7 conference semifinal blowout loss to the Mavericks.
Despite the tension between the two, the Suns matched the offer sheet.
Now, after losing Turner, the Pacers can use their full non-taxpayer midlevel exception of $14.1 million to sign a center, and Ayton, now 26, is available as an unrestricted free agent after the Portland Trail Blazers bought his contract out over the weekend. The Blazers first acquired him in a three-team trade with the Suns in 2023, and the third team in the deal was … Milwaukee.
The Stein Line’s Jake Fischer reported Monday that Ayton gave up around $10 million of his $35.6 million salary as part of this week’s buyout, but Ayton could make up that money if he gets the non-taxpayer midlevel from someone. Someone like the Pacers, for example.
The Los Angeles Lakers also have the $14 million MLE, and after Brook Lopez went to the Clippers and Clint Capela back to the Houston Rockets, Ayton is suddenly front and, excuse the pun, center. While his flaws and maturity were major reasons the Blazers gave up on him, he’d still be the perfect rim-running, lob threat type of center that L.A. desperately wants to pair with Luka Dončić.
A source close to Ayton said Tuesday that the Pacers would be “considered” as a potential landing spot.
Ayton would be a challenge for the Pacers. He would have to demonstrate his ability to improve off the court and that he could again earn starter’s minutes on a team that still has high aspirations. Like Williams, Carlisle doesn’t suffer fools at this stage of his career. Neither do Pascal Siakam, Andrew Nembhard, Nesmith or T.J. McConnell.
Indiana is a professional basketball organization from top to bottom. The Pacers will struggle mightily without Haliburton next season. They almost certainly won’t be the East’s finals rep in 2026. They won’t roll over, though.
They’ll still be looking for someone serious in the middle. They’ll need the help, and particularly, now, against … Milwaukee.
(The Athletic’s John Hollinger contributed to this story.)
(Top photo of Myles Turner and Tyrese Haliburton: Ron Hoskins/NBAE via Getty Images)