Times Opinion convened a panel
of voters to assess the
candidates for the Nov. 4 election.
Oct. 24, 2025
On a scale from 0-10, we asked panelists to rate each candidate’s potential to be a great governor of Virginia.
Virginia will elect its first female governor on Nov. 4, when voters choose between Abigail Spanberger, a Democrat who served three terms in Congress and a former C.I.A. employee, and Winsome Earle-Sears, the current Republican lieutenant governor and a Marine Corps veteran. Virginia’s off-cycle governor elections serve as a window into how voters are responding to a new administration, and in that respect, Ms. Earle-Sears will be fighting history: Only once since the 1970s have Virginians elected a governor from the same party as the president.
In the latest version of The Choice, Times Opinion convened a panel of nine people with varied backgrounds and areas of expertise — a former lieutenant governor and a laid-off federal worker; a small business owner and a postgraduate student — to assess the candidates’ potential to handle the issues Virginians face. President Trump’s role was a central focus of the discussion, but so was the economy and job loss in a state where thousands of federal workers have been fired. Sharp disagreements emerged over who would best enhance Virginia’s standing as a pro-business state and address the rights of transgender students in schools.
Ms. Spanberger has maintained a comfortable lead in the polls, and that advantage was reflected in the assessments of our panelists, eight of whom favored her over Ms. Earle-Sears. They liked what they described as Ms. Spanberger’s moderate approach, and believed that she would work with the Trump administration as necessary while also defending Virginians’ rights. Ms. Earle-Sears’s supporters praised what they called her business-friendly approach, and said she would have a smoother relationship with the White House. But even they faulted a campaign that they said offered little in the way of vision or creativity.
The Choice was prepared by Times Opinion editors using a brief questionnaire and a round-table discussion with all the panelists in late September, supplemented by individual conversations. The material has been edited for length and clarity.
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Jobs and the Economy Jobs and the EconomyDealing With Trump Dealing With TrumpEducation and Transgender Issues Education and Transgender IssuesLeadership Leadership
Sally Hudson Economist and former Democratic House delegate
The cost of living tops my list of priorities. A lot of politicians like to pay lip service to affordability on the campaign trail, but making progress will require focus.
The business environment and affordability are tightly linked because major employers want to settle in states that can attract and retain a strong work force — where people can afford to live where they work. I know sometimes it seems like the federal government is the ocean and the governor is just riding the waves. But there really is a lot the governor can do to foster a strong business climate here at home. Richmond can play a role in addressing local regulations that drive up the cost of living.Abigail Spanberger also has a clear set of plans for work force development and fostering innovation, to invest in the infrastructure and institutions that drive job creation: our schools, research centers, hospitals and cutting-edge industries.
Javion T. Peterson Student and former legislative aide
I’m supporting Spanberger, but her potential is limited by the struggling U.S. economy.
Bill Bolling Republican and former lieutenant governor
You want to be governor when the economy is doing well. The next governor is going to face an economy that is not doing particularly well. So the economy is at the top of the list. And how the business community is doing, how tax revenues are coming in — that controls and influences everything else. I also want the next governor to maintain a pro-business environment in Virginia. Winsome Sears, I think, would take a more pro-business approach to policy and economic development, building on many of the programs put in place by Governor Youngkin.
In addition, I think Spanberger will be pressured to change Virginia’s right-to-work law and approve collective bargaining for state employees, both of which I believe would harm Virginia’s standing as one of the most pro-business states in the nation.
Buz Grossberg Restaurant owner in Richmond
Job losses in Virginia and addressing what we can do about them is a big priority, and how we can save these jobs and these employees from a lot of extra harm, like cuts to health care. Sears would not be more effective at creating jobs and improving the economy. She would continue to follow the playbook of Youngkin and Trump.
Charlie Nave Lawyer and Roanoke City G.O.P. Committee chair
Sears supports right to work and will cooperate with Trump’s deportation efforts to open up blue-collar jobs and increase wages for U.S. citizens.
Adrian Mathura Former U.S.A.I.D. senior adviser
With tariffs and inflation, I’m not sure how the middle class and professional class can sustain spending. But the Commonwealth already holds robust and growing corporate investment sectors, which Spanberger could balance with her stated desire to ensure that corporations pay their fair share and thereby benefit the broader public and working-class electorate.
Leslie Houston Educator and former union president
Spanberger’s approach focuses on long-term, steady growth by investing in people through job training, education and work force development, so Virginians have the skills that businesses need.
Bill Bolling Republican and former lieutenant governor
We’ve been very fortunate in Virginia for a long time under governors of both political parties to have been recognized as one of the most pro-business states in the nation. But we’re facing challenges on two fronts. One is all of the DOGE cuts and the impact that has on the federal work force. I also think we’re going to see the next governor deal with revenue deficits. And then you have to make really tough decisions about how you spend money.
Rhena Hicks Co-executive director of Freedom Virginia
Affordability is top of mind, and I don’t see anything showing me how Sears would lower the cost of living for me.
My utility bill that comes in the mail every month, that was over $400 last month. Things like that is what voters are thinking about — at least what my family is thinking about when I think of the economy. And so looking for governor candidates that talk directly to that, I think Abigail’s got a really strong plan.
Bill Bolling Republican and former lieutenant governor
Whether you like President Trump or not, you do not want to create an enemy of the federal government. If you do, it’s going to be a really, really rough ride. If Spanberger is elected governor, I’d expect to see constant warfare between her administration and the Trump administration over numerous policy issues, including immigration enforcement, educational policy, environmental policy and policies regarding transgender students.
Adrian Mathura Former U.S.A.I.D. senior adviser
I agree. It doesn’t serve us to have the next governor fight the administration. I’d like to see Spanberger work on supporting the many federal or federal-adjacent people in my community, supporting the economy and supporting Virginia. But in cases where our rights are in conflict with federal government initiatives, she needs to act decisively to protect the people of Virginia.
Buz Grossberg Restaurant owner in Richmond
I think Sears will follow the divisive MAGA agenda. Spanberger will work for Virginians to preserve democracy.
Tom Sheets President of Blue Ridge Lumber
Those two are not going to get along, because he doesn’t get along with hardly anybody. That’s just how it is.
Rhena Hicks Co-executive director of Freedom Virginia
I would hope that she would be very nuanced in her relationship with Trump. I love the fire and the passion that Gavin Newsom brings, but Virginia, geographically, we are so intertwined with D.C., many people’s livelihoods depend on it, including in other parts of the state, not just northern Virginia. I think she would throw the gauntlet down when needed, and work with him when it was beneficial to Virginia.
Leslie Houston Educator and former union president
It doesn’t take much to be an enemy of the federal government. Spanberger has a history of being pragmatic, and I hope that she will remain that way. I would like to see her take a firm and assertive stance in defending Virginia’s interests if they are threatened.
Sally Hudson Economist and former Democratic House delegate
I think if Winsome Earle-Sears is governor, the federal government will view it as an open invitation to meddle in our every institution, from our schools to our courts. We’re already seeing some of that under Governor Youngkin. Virginians are savvy voters. They understand the relationship between local, state and federal government because of our proximity. We’re looking for a governor who is going to protect Virginia. Abigail Spanberger can find ways to work with Washington when it serves Virginians well, but she’s also shown she’s willing to put Virginians first when our rights and institutions are under attack.
Buz Grossberg Restaurant owner in Richmond
We’re in a situation where standing back and using the old rules may not apply because there’s such an egregious affront against our Democratic rights. We may need to push back more than most people expect. We’re seeing the demise or demoralization of the democracy we love so much, along with the rule of law. That’s one of the things that really, really frustrates me and makes me scared, to be perfectly honest.
Charlie Nave Lawyer and Roanoke City G.O.P. Committee chair
Winsome Sears and Donald Trump are from different factions within the Republican Party. And they’re not in perfect alignment, but I think they’re going to work well enough together for the good of the whole Commonwealth. I think that Winsome Sears’s greatest opportunity is to be a check against the legislature.
If there’s a Democrat majority in the House of Delegates after Election Day, then she is going to be facing a pretty partisan, extreme, in my view, Democrat Party. The thing I’d be looking for her to do the most is to use that veto pen and keep it full of ink.
Javion T. Peterson Student and former legislative aide
Abigail Spanberger would best handle it. Because of her tenure in Congress during the previous Trump presidency, she dealt with the chaos in D.C. and established relationships with congressional members from both parties.
Rhena Hicks Co-executive director of Freedom Virginia
Above any of the issues on the campaign trail, education is the one that I hear Abigail Spanberger talk about the most. And I do think it’ll be nice to have a governor with children in Virginia public schools.
Typically, I’m the one informing friends of everything, due to the nature of my job. And I think it’s really interesting that lately, the mom group chats have been popping off about things that I’m normally trying to shake them into caring about — around revenue, curriculum, for example. And I will say none of my group chats ever talk about transgender kids in bathrooms.
Leslie Houston Educator and former union president
In Fairfax County, they are talking about this a lot. It’s an important issue. Parents have every right to feel the way they do, and as a parent myself, I understand their concerns. I also think we can’t lose sight of issues like school funding and equity. Our schools are being asked to do more with less. Our teachers are overworked and underpaid.
Listen, there was a time when I was in the school system where, as a teacher, before school even started, I’d already spent $1,000 — and federally you could only write off, at that time, $250 — to ensure that my students had snacks and food to eat because kids can’t learn if they’re hungry.We’re struggling with class sizes that are too large and some students who are exhibiting behaviors we were not seeing before the pandemic.
Charlie Nave Lawyer and Roanoke City G.O.P. Committee chair
Virginia has a lot more home-schooling than four years ago. My own children are home-schooled, and we’ve seen a flood of more people coming into the home-school co-ops and getting interested in home-schooling because their trust in the local public schools has just plummeted.
They see them focusing on not reading or writing, but all sorts of fads and trends. And we’ve all been seeing what’s going on up in northern Virginia with transgender kids in locker rooms; this seems like an absolutely dead-to-rights issue. For crying out loud, how can you even focus on doing this when the children aren’t able to read at grade level?
Bill Bolling Republican and former lieutenant governor
The candidates are very different on these cultural issues. Sears is pro-life. Spanberger is pro-choice. Sears has made the prohibition of transgender students using the same restroom and locker room facilities as young girls a centerpiece of her campaign. She would promote state policies on these issues. On the other hand, Spanberger has taken the position that issues of this nature should be dealt with at the local level, not the state level.
Tom Sheets President of Blue Ridge Lumber
On transgender issues and abortion, both candidates would appeal to their base, with Sears being too inflexible on abortion. Spanberger would be more open to compromise.
Charlie Nave Lawyer and Roanoke City G.O.P. Committee chair
Sears will handle these better because she has a common-sense perspective on these issues.
Rhena Hicks Co-executive director of Freedom Virginia
Abigail Spanberger for sure would handle these issues better. She is competent, measured and trusts the experts in the room. Whichever way the MAGA wind blows is where Winsome Sears will take a hard-line stance.
Adrian Mathura Former U.S.A.I.D. senior adviser
I don’t think Spanberger has responded with enough conviction to Sears’s strong and overwhelmingly out-of-bounds attacks on transgender rights. For example, she could have more strongly said this is merely a culture war matter used to incite passions and fears. If Spanberger is unable to stand strong against these basic civil rights issues, she will likely be ineffective in countering the onslaught of abuses underway by the current federal administration.
Sally Hudson Economist and former Democratic House delegate
Virginia’s governor has to respect the rights and dignity of all Virginians. When you start with genuine respect for all the people you serve, it’s not hard to handle divisive issues with moral clarity. Abigail Spanberger has that sincere commitment to public service.
Javion T. Peterson Student and former legislative aide
Winsome Earle-Sears has demonstrated she does not have the capacity to handle these complex issues — abortion and transgender rights — with the sensitivity necessary.
Leslie Houston Educator and former union president
I am voting for Abigail Spanberger because, in my opinion, she is the lesser of two evils. I was a critic because I felt like she was not addressing issues within the Black community, but based on this conversation, it seems she’s not reaching other communities either. I’m worried about housing, about affordability, about homelessness. If we don’t find a governor that has some type of integrity and compassion — and at least Abigail Spanberger appears to have some — then we will be in trouble.
Javion T. Peterson Student and former legislative aide
I want the next governor to have a sense of collaboration.The budget needs the governor, the state house and the state senate all working together.
I want the governor to be able to advocate for policies and talk with the people who are in the communities every day doing the work. Abigail Spanberger is better suited to be a champion for the agencies and the institutions and the people doing the work. These are the people that are shaping the economy.
Bill Bolling Republican and former lieutenant governor
If you listen to the television ads, you ought to oppose Winsome Earle-Sears because she’s just like Donald Trump. And if you listen to other television ads, you ought to oppose Abigail Spanberger because she wants to let biological males play female sports and use female locker rooms. That seems to be the public message of both campaigns.
Now, if you go to their websites and you dig a little bit, you can find a little bit of policy information in some places, but there is not much policy information out there. That should concern us all.
Tom Sheets President of Blue Ridge Lumber
I agree with Bill — it’s negative ads. We’ve always had a problem. Nobody’s telling us what they want to do for us, do for Virginia.
Sally Hudson Economist and former Democratic House delegate
There’s an old saying that a leader needs three bones: a wishbone to dream big, a jawbone to speak up and a backbone to stand strong. I think a leader in this time needs the backbone most of all.
Rhena Hicks Co-executive director of Freedom Virginia
We need a Virginian-first mentality right now.
Charlie Nave Lawyer and Roanoke City G.O.P. Committee chair
We need a leader who’s inspirational so that we can be unified.
Buz Grossberg Restaurant owner in Richmond
Well, for me, we need a leader that’s going to push hard to follow the rule of law. Here in the state, in federal government, wherever it may be, it’s got to be honesty and integrity and following the rule of law, because that’s what our country was built on.
About our panel These nine local leaders assessed the candidates independently, as individual voters, not on behalf of their organizations. Some panelists made donations to candidates; that information is disclosed in their biographies.
Bill Bolling is a former Republican lieutenant governor of Virginia who served from 2006 to 2014 under the governors Tim Kaine and Bob McDonnell. He was a state senator for nearly 10 years and unsuccessfully sought the Republican nomination for governor in 2012. Since 2014, he has taught government at George Mason University and Virginia Commonwealth University.
Buz Grossberg is the owner of Buz and Ned’s Real Barbecue in Richmond, which grew from a food cart he opened in 1992. He has hosted fund-raisers for Democratic and Republican candidates for local office over the years, and has donated to Abigail Spanberger.
Rhena Hicks is a co-executive director of Freedom Virginia, an advocacy nonprofit focused on affordability issues. She served as chief of staff to Kelly Convirs-Fowler, a Democratic member of the House of Delegates. She is also the executive director of the Democratic Business Alliance of South Hampton Roads.
Leslie Houston is a former president of the Fairfax Education Association, a union representing workers in the public school district, and a special education teacher. She also advocates measures that address inequality issues.
Sally Hudson is a former Democratic House delegate who represented Charlottesville for two terms until 2024. She is the founder of Ranked Choice Virginia, a voter education nonprofit. She is a labor economist and a fellow at the University of Virginia, where she previously taught public policy and economics. She has contributed $500 to Abigail Spanberger’s campaign.
Adrian Mathura is a former senior adviser for the U.S. Agency for International Development who lost his job during federal layoffs in July. His work involved overseeing anticorruption and financial planning in global health, including PEPFAR, the federal program for worldwide H.I.V. treatment and prevention. He is a lawyer and a veteran of the U.S. Navy.
Charlie Nave is a lawyer whose firm primarily represents nonprofits and fund-raising consultants, and the chair of the Roanoke City Republican Committee. He is the vice chair of the Sixth Congressional District Republican Committee. He ran unsuccessfully to represent Roanoke City in the House of Delegates in 2021.
Javion T. Peterson is a graduate student studying public administration at Virginia Commonwealth University and a former legislative aide to three Democratic House delegates. A former public school teacher, his research interests include education policy and civic engagement.
Tom Sheets is the president of Blue Ridge Lumber in the Shenandoah Valley. He has hosted political fund-raisers for elected Republican leaders and organized information sessions with Senator Mark Warner. He has been appointed by state leaders to serve on various boards representing business and cultural interests.
× About our panel
These nine local leaders assessed the candidates independently, as individual voters, not on behalf of their organizations. Some panelists made donations to candidates; that information is disclosed in their biographies.
Bill Bolling is a former Republican lieutenant governor of Virginia who served from 2006 to 2014 under the governors Tim Kaine and Bob McDonnell. He was a state senator for nearly 10 years and unsuccessfully sought the Republican nomination for governor in 2012. Since 2014, he has taught government at George Mason University and Virginia Commonwealth University.
Buz Grossberg is the owner of Buz and Ned’s Real Barbecue in Richmond, which grew from a food cart he opened in 1992. He has hosted fund-raisers for Democratic and Republican candidates for local office over the years, and has donated to Abigail Spanberger.
Rhena Hicks is a co-executive director of Freedom Virginia, an advocacy nonprofit focused on affordability issues. She served as chief of staff to Kelly Convirs-Fowler, a Democratic member of the House of Delegates. She is also the executive director of the Democratic Business Alliance of South Hampton Roads.
Leslie Houston is a former president of the Fairfax Education Association, a union representing workers in the public school district, and a special education teacher. She also advocates measures that address inequality issues.
Sally Hudson is a former Democratic House delegate who represented Charlottesville for two terms until 2024. She is the founder of Ranked Choice Virginia, a voter education nonprofit. She is a labor economist and a fellow at the University of Virginia, where she previously taught public policy and economics. She has contributed $500 to Abigail Spanberger’s campaign.
Adrian Mathura is a former senior adviser for the U.S. Agency for International Development who lost his job during federal layoffs in July. His work involved overseeing anticorruption and financial planning in global health, including PEPFAR, the federal program for worldwide H.I.V. treatment and prevention. He is a lawyer and a veteran of the U.S. Navy.
Charlie Nave is a lawyer whose firm primarily represents nonprofits and fund-raising consultants, and the chair of the Roanoke City Republican Committee. He is the vice chair of the Sixth Congressional District Republican Committee. He ran unsuccessfully to represent Roanoke City in the House of Delegates in 2021.
Javion T. Peterson is a graduate student studying public administration at Virginia Commonwealth University and a former legislative aide to three Democratic House delegates. A former public school teacher, his research interests include education policy and civic engagement.
Tom Sheets is the president of Blue Ridge Lumber in the Shenandoah Valley. He has hosted political fund-raisers for elected Republican leaders and organized information sessions with Senator Mark Warner. He has been appointed by state leaders to serve on various boards representing business and cultural interests.