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Warren Buffett may be considered the greatest investor of our time, but even he can’t touch the prowess of California congresswoman Nancy Pelosi (D-CA). As my colleague Omor Ibne Ehsan recently detailed, over the past decade, Pelosi has generated a cumulative return of 816% from her investments, beating the S&P 500 by a whopping 559 percentage points.
In contrast, the poor Oracle of Omaha has only managed a 282% cumulative return for Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK-A)(NYSE:BRK-B) during that same period — better than the benchmark index, but it’s no contest: Buffett is no Pelosi.
Of course, Pelosi isn’t the only politician with uncanny market timing. In 2024, while the California congresswoman trounced the market again, generating returns in excess of 70% compared to the S&P 500’s 25% — similar to Buffett’s 25.5% total return — she was a real piker among the 535 members of Congress.
According to the site Unusual Whales, which tracks politician trades, Pelosi was only the 10th best congressional investor last year, far behind Rep. David Rouzer (R-NC) with returns of 149%, Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL) at 142.3%, and Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR) with 123.8% returns.
In all, five politicians had returns over 100% in 2024.
Of course, the politicians deny trading on inside information obtained from their oversight responsibilities of the companies they regulate. Yet they also refuse to ban stock trading by politicians, no matter how many times a bill to do so is introduced.
If you want to mimic the trades politicians make, Unusual Whales has two exchange-traded funds (ETF): the Unusual Whales Subversive Democratic Trading ETF (NYSEARCA:NANC), to track Democrat politician trades and whose ticker symbol is a cheeky nod to Pelosi, and the Unusual Whales Subversive Republican Trading ETF (NYSEARCA:KRUZ), which tracks Republican trades. Its ticker is named after Republican Texas senator Ted Cruz, also known for his frequency and timing of trades.
This past summer, though, The Washington Times explored the prescient knack Pelosi has for timing her trades. It detailed how her portfolio — ostensibly managed by her husband Paul Pelosi — sold 5,000 shares of Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) last year just before the Federal Trade Commission launched an antitrust investigation into the tech giant. Pelosi also sold 2,000 shares of Visa (NYSE:V) prior to the Justice Dept. suing the payments processor.
In January, the congresswoman purchased 50 call options with a strike price of $20 of a rather small, unknown artificial intelligence-powered healthcare outfit called Tempus AI (NASDAQ:TEM) — just months before it signed a $200 million deal with AstraZeneca (NYSE:AZN).
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The value of her trade was reported as between $50,000 and $100,000. At the time, TEM was trading at around $31 per share, but the stock has soared since, and closed on Friday at $89.23 per share — a sweet 180% gain in nine months.
Based on standard pricing models, it’s estimated Pelosi’s 50 contracts are worth approximately $347,200 today. It’s easy to see why the California Democrat is seen as the gold standard of political investors.
So which stocks are doing best for Pelosi in 2025? Below are her three top performers.
At the same time Pelosi was buying Tempus AI, she also purchased 50 call options on AI powerhouse Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA). The contracts had a strike price of $80 and an expiration date of Jan. 16, 2026. NVDA stock is up 41.36% since the trade.
Of course, this hasn’t been the only time Pelosi has bought Nvidia. She has bought and exercised options on the chipmaker numerous times over the past few years. For example, as Omor detailed, in November 2023, she bought 50 call options with a $120 strike price that expired Dec. 21, 2024 that became 500 options with a $12 price after NVDA’s 10-for-1 stock split in June, 2024. She exercised those options the day before expiration when the stock was trading between $130 and $135 per share.
Nvidia still remains the largest position in Pelosi’s portfolio, representing about 22% of the total.
In another bit of good fortune, Pelosi bought 20 call options on Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) with an $800 strike price and an expiry of June 20, 2025, just three weeks before the AI semiconductor stock had its own 10-for-1 stock split. She exercised the options a year later when AVGO was trading at $250 a share.
Today, AVGO trades for more than $354 per share and the stock is Pelosi’s second-largest position, representing 15% of her portfolio.
Of course, Pelosi’s best trade of 2025 so far is Tempus AI, though it only ranks as the fifth biggest position. Wall Street, though, is cautious about the healthcare stock after its big run-up this year. Analysts have a consensus hold rating and an $82.50 per share target price, implying 7.5% downside potential.
Still, analysts are split on its near-term prospects, with half giving a buy or better rating. There is also a Street-high $110 per share target that Canaccord Genuity just reiterated last week. Tempus AI is scheduled to report third quarter earnings next week on Nov. 3, and it could serve as a catalyst for its next leg higher.