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After 35 races and some remarkable drama, we’ve finally reached the final race of the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series season.
With that said, we are down to four drivers who will vie for the championship at Phoenix: Denny Hamlin, Chase Briscoe, Kyle Larson, and William Byron, who delivered a victory at Martinsville in a must-win scenario to lock himself into the final four.
Three of those drivers: Hamlin, Briscoe and Byron, will be looking for their first championship at the premier level of NASCAR racing. While Larson is hoping to add to his iconic 2021 series championship.
But who holds the edge going into Phoenix?
NASCAR Power Rankings For The Four Title Contenders
All four drivers will be happy to see that they do not have to compete against Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney of Team Penske, who combined to win the last three Cup Series championships.
Both ran well at Martinsville, and Blaney even held the lead with 50 laps to go, but was outdueled by an undeniable Byron.
Additionally, all four drivers have won at Phoenix in the past, meaning each has reason for confidence. But who goes into the championship race with most to feel good about?
4) Kyle Larson
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It would be absolutely foolish to count any of the four remaining drivers out heading into Phoenix. Especially someone like Larson, who made believe is the best driver in the series.
But it just doesn’t feel as if he has quite the momentum of the other three title contenders, each of whom picked up victories in the Round of Eight.
Larson ran well at Martinsville. He finished the race in fifth and finished third and second in the opening two stages, easily covering rival Christopher Bell in the race for the final spot in the championship four. But he never looked like a threat to win, something he hasn’t done since May, and he may well need to do so next week to lift a championship, as he did in 2021.
On the bright side, he has a solid 10.7 average finish at Phoenix and finished third there earlier in the season after starting in 17th. That average finish is even better – 9.0 – since joining Hendrick Motorsports.
3) Chase Briscoe
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Briscoe absolutely has an argument to be higher on this list. He finished dead last at Martinsville after struggling all race before an engine failure. But that result is really meaningless considering he had already locked himself into the Championship Four with a win at Talladega.
The first-year Joe Gibbs Racing driver has been nothing short of incredible in the second half of the season, and he ran extremely well earlier in the playoffs at Gateway, a track not too dissimilar to Phoenix.
Additionally, Briscoe picked up his first win of his career at Phoenix in 2022 when he was racing for Stewart-Haas. Couple that with the fact that he’s been won of the series’ best qualifiers on a track that can be tough to pass on, and it’s easy to see how Briscoe could come out on top on Sunday.
There are, however, some concerns. Briscoe’s average finish at Phoenix is just 18.4, the world of the title contenders (albeit in worse equipment), and he finished 35th there in March after starting just 30th.
2) Denny Hamlin
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Sixty victories. Three Daytona 500 wins. Countless crown jewel event victories
Is this the year that 44-year-old Denny Hamlin finally gets his elusive NASCAR Cup Series championship?
Hamlin became the first driver to lock himself into the final four with a win in Las Vegas, but the weeks since have been tumultuous. He had mechanical gremlins at both Talladega and Martinsville that ruined his races. And while those weren’t consequential then, another one in Phoenix will be fatal to his title hopes.
At 10.6, Hamlin has the best career average of any of the final four at Phoenix, and he’s won twice there, compared to one apiece for each of his competitors.
Additionally, Hamlin finished second to teammate Christopher Bell at the track in March. If he replicates that feat this time around, he’ll finally have the championship that his resume deserves.
1) William Byron
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Isn’t it funny how quickly things change?
Byron began the season red hot and even despite the mid-season slump, claimed the regular season championship. But he had to scratch and claw his way through each playoff round and looked down and out after late-race incidents at both Las Vegas and Talladega scuppered what otherwise looked like top-five finishes.
But Byron and his team delivered when it mattered most, leading over 300 laps and picking up the victory at Martinsville to propel himself into the Championship Four.
Now he heads to Phoenix, a track where he led 83 laps in March, with a ton of momentum. Byron has a 10.8 average finish at Phoenix in his career, the fourth-best of any track on the calendar, and he has just one finish lower and sixth in the last six races there.
Additionally, wins at Iowa, Martinsville, and a third-place finish at New Hampshire will have Byron and his team confident that they have what it takes to lift a championship at Phoenix.
And who knows, maybe if he does, he’ll get that long-awaited date with Sabrina Carpenter?