In this year’s Player Tiers project, we were told we may be drinking the Panthers’ Kool-Aid a little too much.

There wasn’t a question of whether Aleksander Barkov is MVP-caliber or if Matthew Tkachuk is one of the best wingers in the game. It was whether the next wave of Panthers was getting slightly overrated after winning back-to-back championships.

One analyst’s framing helped put that in perspective.

“Sam Reinhart is a great player as the sort of second or third-best player on a top team. But if he is your best forward, are you feeling great about your chances?”

This isn’t meant to fault what Reinhart brings to a lineup; he has become a great goal scorer and all-around threat for the Panthers. But there is a reason why he works so well there: He doesn’t have to be The Guy; he is part of a star-powered top six and thrives within the system.

And now, with both Tkachuk and Barkov sidelined, the Panthers are learning what this team looks like with players such as Reinhart, Sam Bennett and Anton Lundell stepping into more meaningful roles than usual.

On an individual level, Reinhart’s scoring pace has already taken a step back from the last couple of years. After reaching the 80- and 90-point mark, he is only on pace for 45 across an 82-game season. The goal scoring is still a threat, even with his shooting percentage coming down to earth at a more reasonable 14.3 percent. And with his shot quality in mind (9.1 xG so far), there could be even more in the tank than his current rate shows. But that gap between expected and actual goal scoring is affecting more than just Reinhart — it’s a team-wide problem.

Below the surface, the Panthers’ shot quality is there, having trended up to 2.85 xG per 60 over the last stretch of play. Florida’s scoring chance suppression is also moving in the right direction. The problem is that the team is only scoring 1.86 goals per 60. That adds up to 8.43 goals fewer than expected, which is the third-worst in the league. And without Barkov and Tkachuk, this group may not be able to power past that.

Utah’s hot start

With a 6-3 loss to Edmonton on Tuesday night, the Mammoth’s seven-game win streak came to an end. But this team is still making a statement in the early goings of the season — especially with four straight wins against last year’s Western Conference playoff teams.

The potential has been there for this franchise over the last couple of seasons, but it hasn’t come together enough on the ice or in the standings. This season, led by a fast-paced group of rising stars, from Clayton Keller and Mikhail Sergachev, to Dylan Guenther, Logan Cooley and JJ Peterka, the Mammoth have already upped their playoff chances to 73 percent. And that group led the way against the four Central Division teams to reach the playoffs last year.

The wins weren’t all perfect. Against the Avs, Utah allowed a late goal that forced overtime. The Mammoth let the Blues claw back from a 4-0 hole to pull within one in the third period, too. But in both instances, this team bounced back; Guenther scored the winner against Colorado, and Utah picked up offensively to close out St. Louis.

A poor second period cost Utah the game against the Oilers on Tuesday night, but it served as a solid measuring stick against one of the projected top contenders in the West. If the Mammoth can learn from it, this team should finally make a name for itself as a riser to watch in the playoff picture.

Jakub Dobeš is outperforming Sam Montembeault

Over the last few years, Montembeault has proved he can be The Guy in Montreal. He stood tall for the Canadiens last year and earned the fourth-best goals saved above expected in the league, according to Evolving-Hockey. That pushed his projected value into the top five in the league, heading into this season. But his actual play so far is closer to a bottom-five goalie.

Montembeault has yet to earn a quality start in five appearances, dropped to a .842 save percentage, and allowed 6.3 goals above expected. That ranks third to last in the league, ahead of only Joel Hofer and Linus Ullmark.

His goalie partner, on the other hand, is thriving. Dobeš has given the Canadiens a chance to win with five quality starts in six outings, a .930 save percentage, and a GSAx of 9.63, which ranks fourth in the league. That earned him two straight starts on Tuesday night against Seattle, for the second time this season.

Dobes’ stellar start is exactly what the Canadiens need, but it’s a long season, and he doesn’t exactly have a strong track record to lean on in a true starting capacity. Montembeault does, and that history helps improve his chances of a rebound. But at this rate, he will have to earn his playing time and prove he can get back on track.

Ivan Demidov and Lane Hutson’s chemistry

Last year, the Canadiens’ go-to combination was bigger than just a top line. It was a four-man unit: Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, Juraj Slafkovský and Lane Hutson. While Hutson’s still getting his reps in with that trio (and quarterbacks the top power-play unit with them), the numbers aren’t as sparkling as last year. Instead, it’s offseason addition Noah Dobson who is clicking with the Suzuki line, as Dom Luszczyszyn highlighted in 16 Stats. In now 64 five-on-five minutes together, this unit has a 75 percent xG rate and a 5-0 scoring edge.

Hutson, on the other hand, is finding a lot of chemistry with a new-look second line led by Ivan Demidov. The Hutson-Demidov connection pairs two highly skilled skaters who see the ice well and can create offense out of nothing.

Playing with Demidov, Alex Newhook and Oliver Kapanen also eases Hutson’s workload in terms of quality of competition, compared to Dobson, who is playing matchup minutes. The result? Montreal is dominating its minutes with both the first and second line on the ice. With Hutson and Demidov deployed together in 49 five-on-five minutes, the Canadiens have rocked an 68.3 percent xG rate, and outscored opponents 3-1.

An Avalanche of power-play goals

Colorado netted a power-play goal in each of its first three games to open the season. And then the team only mustered one more over the next seven games and 24 opportunities.

Even in those first couple of games, the Avs’ efficiency was far from perfect. Colorado only went one-for-six against the Kings in Game 1, one-for-four against Utah, and then one-for-five in a shootout loss to the Stars.

Heading into Tuesday night’s matchup against the Devils, the Avalanche ranked third-to-last in power play scoring with just 3.32 goals per 60. Only Nashville and Carolina had produced less.

Shooting 6.42 percent on the advantage didn’t help matters. But neither did generating just 6.55 expected goals per 60, which also ranked third-to-last in the league (ahead of only Chicago and St. Louis).

It’s surprising for a unit led by two of the most dynamic skaters in the world, in Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar. But it’s not the first time this team experienced power-play woes; it tripped up the Avs at times last regular season, and bit them in Round 1. That led the team to replace assistant coach Ray Bennett with Dave Hakstol.

But the Avs turned things around on Tuesday, with four power-play goals against the Devils in six opportunities. New Jersey’s one of the stingier penalty-killing teams, but was without a key cog in Brett Pesce. Now, Colorado has to hope this was the breakthrough the team needed to make their power play an actual advantage again.

Dylan Larkin, faceoff specialist

Remember the Red Wings’ disastrous penalty kill last season? One of the issues was how often Detroit would lose the initial faceoff and allow a goal against within seconds.

What’s one way to counter that? Deploy a faceoff specialist.

That’s what Dylan Larkin has become this season in Detroit. Larkin has killed penalties in seasons past; he just hasn’t generally been on the Red Wings’ top unit. Technically, he still isn’t this year — he just starts there.

The Red Wings have been sending Larkin out first over the boards in short-handed situations to take the draw, and he often jumps off the ice within 10 seconds of the faceoff. While he stays out for a full shift in some instances (often after a faceoff loss), he sometimes is also back on the bench within five seconds.

Ahead of Tuesday’s matchup against the Blues, Larkin had won 13 or 22 short-handed draws for the Red Wings (59.1 percent). The rest of the team had only won five of 20 draws (25 percent) through the first nine games. That adds up to Larkin taking 52 percent of Detroit’s short-handed draws and being responsible for 72 percent of the team’s face-off wins, according to data collected by Prashanth Iyer.

He added to that on Tuesday night, when he went three-for-three on the Red Wings’ short-handed face-offs against the Blues.

It’s not the most extreme case in the league — Jake Evans, for example, has taken (and won) over 80 percent of the Canadiens’ short-handed draws. But Larkin isn’t too far behind; his ability to win faceoffs on the penalty kill has become a key part of the team’s strategy to address a weakness that crushed them last year.

Kiefer Sherwood is in for a raise

While Sherwood emerged as a spark plug in the early going of last season, with his goal-scoring and physicality, some sustainability concerns eventually slowed his production. His season-wide numbers left him with comps such as Darren Helm, Raffi Torres, Jannik Hansen and Mikhail Grabovski.

It’s a list of forwards who would give most teams some pause before handing out a lengthy extension; comps lower on the list, such as Dave Bolland, show how dicey it can be to bet on players of this ilk.

Evolving-Hockey’s model pointed to a three-year, $3.46 million extension this past summer. But with a rising cap, a thinning class of free agent wingers, Sherwood’s start, and the Canucks’ lack of forward depth, it makes for an even more interesting situation — especially if he can prove that he is more than just a bottom sixer this season.

With six goals in 12 games this year, Sherwood is on pace for 41 goals. And those goals show just what a talented scorer he has the chops to be.

Similar to last year, there are red flags to watch for — no one shoots 31.6 percent forever, so that scoring rate should slow. But what if he isn’t as streaky in the second half as last year?

Sherwood, an electrifying and exciting winger, is the exact kind of player general managers love to overspend on. While most players are what they are at 30 years old, he still has a chance to prove that his comps aren’t his path forward. At this rate, a payday is in his future — he just has to show he can maintain this level of energy across an 82-game season.

October stars

Makar, once again, is proving that he is the best defenseman in the world. Along with 15 points in 11 games, the Avalanche are controlling play in his minutes with a 61.9 percent xG rate, and 15-5 five-on-five scoring edge. That earned him the No.1 star in October.

While Pavel Dorofeyev can’t stop scoring goals in Vegas, Jack Eichel’s two-way impact earns him the No. 2. He is an all-around threat who quarterbacks play in his minutes, and is amping up the offense after his scoring slowed last spring. At this rate, it won’t be surprising to hear his name come up in early awards talk.

Spencer Knight’s excellent start in Chicago earned him the third star of the month. Despite facing one of the toughest workloads against, he has given the Blackhawks a chance in six of seven starts so far. Along with a sparkling .930 save percentage, Knight leads the league with 13.3 goals saved above expected.

— Data via Evolving-Hockey, HockeyViz, Hockey Stat Cards, All Three Zones, Dom Luszczyszyn, and Natural Stat Trick. This story relies on shot-based metrics; here is a primer on these numbers