WTA Finals Best Bets Including Gauff vs Pegula

H2H: 5-2

Similar to yesterday’s first match, Sabalenka enjoys a 5-2 career record against Jasmine Paolini. They’ve also met twice this year, both times in a semifinal. Once on clay, once on a hardcourt, and Sabalenka won both in straight sets. Paolini’s last victory over Sabalenka was back in 2022 at WTA Indian Wells. Her other win didn’t come at a WTA level, as it was at ITF Ilkley in 2017. Sabalenka is coming off a US Open victory and then a semifinal appearance in the next tournament, WTA Wuhan, losing to Jessica Pegula in a three-set tiebreak. Paolini’s only tournament victory came at WTA Rome in May. She made another final at WTA Cincinnati only to lose to Iga Swiatek in straight sets.

Best Bet to Make

Sabalenka is the favorite for a reason. Not only is she no. 1 in the World, but she also has a recent proven track record against Paolini. While Paolini did put up a better performance at WTA Stuttgart, pushing Sabalenka to a tiebreak in the first set, and a 6-4 second set, whereas she only won four total games in their WTA Miami match in March. Sabalenka won that tournament without once going to a third set. Sabalenka winning 2:0 is the play here, as only two of their seven matches have gone to a third set. The last one was that aforementioned 2022 match won by Paolini. At 1.85, it’s better than any offer of Sabalenka straight up.

That being said, Sabalenka winning 2:0 is a value bet for sure.

Value bet/the best odds: Sabalenka winning 2:0 @1.85 @Coral

Gauff – Pegula: Time 16:30

H2H: 3-4

Unlike Sabalenka and Paolini, Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula have a robust rivalry. Pegula currently leads the rivalry 4-3, but Gauff has won the last two matches, including the final at WTA Wuhan, which happens to be both of their last matches. That’s right, they’re playing back-to-back. Gauff beat Pegula in last year’s WTA Final group stage. Pegula also made the final in this very tournament in 2023, but Gauff is the defending champion and was a semifinalist in 2023. Gauff is 9-1 in her last ten matches, only losing to Amanda Anisimova in the semifinals of WTA Beijing. Pegula is 8-2 with the aforementioned loss to Gauff and another loss to Linda Noskova, who made it to the finals at WTA Beijing against Anisimova.

Best Bet to Make

Gauff is currently a 1.75-1 favorite in this match, and it’s likely due to her last two wins working in tandem with her victory over Pegula here last year, and her 9-1 recent run. I think Gauff will win, but Pegula is going for 2.69 on Betfair, and not only does she have the lead in their rivalry, but she beat Gauff in the semifinals of this very tournament when she made the final here in 2023. I bet you thought I forgot about that match, didn’t you? It’s okay, you can admit it. I think that rivalries like this tend to go back and forth, and the value on Pegula is too good to pass up.

That being said, Pegula winning is a value bet for sure.

Value bet/the best odds: Pegula winning @2.69 @Betfair

Main Photo Credit: Sam Greene-USA TODAY Sports