BUFFALO, N.Y. — The question this time of year around the water cooler, grocery store aisle, in classrooms and especially in newsrooms, is what’s in store for winter?

Many think that if we were “spoiled” by Mother Nature at some point, we are in for a harsh winter. Plus, when Lake Erie and Ontario are warm, that lake effect machine can be turned up to maximum.


What You Need To Know

  • We are looking at the potential for a La Niña, which generally means wetter than average conditions
  •  Just because Lake Erie has warmer water, doesn’t mean we will be walloped. There are mulitple factors
  • Area- snowplow companies have gotten larger equipment due to the rise in foot-plus storms 

Snowblowers and snowplows getting tune-ups are often part of the sounds of fall, especially for professional snow-clearers like Connor Kolb and his team at WNY Snow Removal.

“The original November storm in 2014, that was our first year in business,” Kolb smiled. “So it’s kind of trial by fire.”

That might be an understatement. Since then, they’ve upgraded a few times.

“We seem to be getting more and more frequent snows that are exceeding at least a foot,” Kolb said. “So there’s been some changes and stuff that we’ve had to do over the years, investing in different equipment and stuff.”

Kolb is not playing into the whole “the lake is warm, here comes the snow” thing.

“I take it with a grain of salt, right?” Kolb smiled. “At any point, we could get hammered with snow.”

No one understands that better than Spectrum News 1 Chief Meteorologist Chris Gilson.

“Everybody wants to look at doom and gloom,” Gilson said. “But just because something is happening doesn’t guarantee that we’ll have a really active winter season.”

A lake effect band coming off of Lake Erie into Buffalo. (NOAA)

Gilson says Buffalo could see above-average snow totals — around 95 inches plus.

“Because we are looking at the potential for a La Niña, which generally means wetter than average conditions,” Gilson explained.

He says there’s a possibility of near normal or slightly above average in other parts of upstate.

“This year is looking like a weak La Niña at best,” Gilson said. “There’s even some indications that maybe it could be neutral.”

So, Albany is looking at around 60 inches, Rochester, 90 inches and 115 to 120 inches in Syracuse. There are so many variables. One of them, of course, is Lake Erie and its water temperature and cold air.

“That wind flow of the colder air over the warmer lakes, that creates the instability, the warm air rises, that forms the clouds, eventually that forms the snow,” he explained.

There is no magic number. Gilson says wind direction, speed and distance all play a role. He notes the lake is cooling down. And if you really aren’t buying his expertise, maybe this will change your mind. This Floridian newcomer isn’t hustling to get ready.

So is he prepared for his first winter here?

“No, I still need to buy winter clothes,” Gilson laughed.

In the meantime, Kolb will continue to monitor the forecast and fine-tune his equipment for if and when that white stuff falls.

“And at this point, we, if you prepare for the worst, you’ll be ready,” Kolb said.

An important note about those sticks at the end of driveways in your neighborhood: they aren’t for sword fighting. Snow plow companies color them accordingly and use them as markers to find their clients. It’s a friendly request that they be left alone.