LAS VEGAS — One executive predicts all 13 free agents who received one-year qualifying offers will reject them, reasoning that no player will want to hit the open market next offseason with a lockout looming.
Perhaps that is true, but each case is different. The value of the qualifying offer, $22.025 million, is tempting. If one or more players accept it by Tuesday’s deadline, few in the industry will be shocked.
The draft-pick compensation attached to free agents who reject qualifying offers frequently hurts those who are not elite. Certain players in this group fit that description:
Second baseman Gleyber Torres
His .812 OPS with the Detroit Tigers before the All-Star Game earned him his third All-Star selection. His .659 OPS after it was partly the result of a sports hernia that required him to undergo surgery on Oct. 25. While Torres is expected to recover by spring training, the fact he is currently less than 100 percent might give some teams pause.
Torres, who joined the Tigers last offseason on a one-year, $15 million free-agent contract, is said to have his enjoyed his time with the club. He turns 29 next month, and would still be a relatively young free agent next offseason if he agreed to another one-year deal. And while the lockout could disrupt the market, at least he would be freed of the qualifying offer, which a player only can receive once.
If Torres stays with the Tigers, he would be virtually assured of fulfilling his goal of remaining with a contender. He rejected a multiyear offer from the Los Angeles Angels last offseason, according to people briefed on his free agency, because he correctly forecast the Tigers as more likely to contend.
Center fielder Trent Grisham
A year ago, the New York Yankees weren’t even certain they would offer Grisham a contract. They did, but Grisham accepted a pay cut from $5.5 million to $5 million — and then responded with 34 homers, double his previous best, and a career-high .811 OPS.
Like Torres, Grisham will play next season at 29. While his defensive metrics in center declined from 2024 to ‘25, a number of his offensive metrics are intriguing. His chase rate was the fourth lowest in the majors, behind only Juan Soto, Torres and Kyle Tucker. His walk rate was the ninth highest. And his batted-ball numbers suggested that his offensive performance was no fluke.
Grisham was comfortable in New York and is said to be confident he can replicate his 2025 performance because of changes he made at the plate and in his mental approach. If interested teams agree with that assessment, he could warrant a healthy multiyear deal.
Right-hander Brandon Woodruff and left-hander Shota Imanaga
While their circumstances are completely different, they’re both starting pitchers, occupying the segment of the market that often generates the most heated interest.
Woodruff, who turns 33 in February, missed all of 2024 coming off shoulder surgery and made only 12 starts for the Milwaukee Brewers in ‘25. Still, he produced a 3.20 ERA and a strikeout-to-walk rate that was the best of his career, albeit in a limited sample.
Imanaga, 32, wasn’t as good in his second season with the Chicago Cubs as he was in his first, and missed nearly two months with a strained left hamstring. The Cubs declined his three-year, $57.75 million club option. Imanaga in turn rejected a player option and the opportunity for a $30.5 million guarantee over two years. The Cubs then made him the qualifying offer.
The demand for starting pitching is so intense, both pitchers figure to command significant multiyear interest, especially when neither will cost as much as the top free-agent starters — Framber Valdez, Dylan Cease, Tatsuya Imai and Ranger Suárez.
Red Sox open to super ‘pen?
Though the idea is further down their list of priorities, the Boston Red Sox are considering the addition of a high-leverage reliever to create a version of a super bullpen, people familiar with the club’s thinking said.
Such an idea would match the approach teams such as the New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies, San Diego Padres and New York Mets took at last summer’s trade deadline. To be clear, the Red Sox do not intend to unseat lefty closer Aroldis Chapman from his role after his dominant season. Also, right-hander Garrett Whitlock is a viable late-inning option. But adding another reliever similar to that pair would obviously enhance their bullpen.
Boston is more focused on bolstering their rotation and adding to their infield, possibly with a power bat. Thus, the Sox do not seem like a match for someone like Edwin Díaz, who resides at the top of the closer market, for example.
But as The Athletic recently reported, they hold some level of interest in free agent Devin Williams. It wouldn’t be surprising to see them continue to at least monitor the market for other proven, high-leverage relievers, which includes Robert Suarez, Pete Fairbanks, Ryan Helsley, Luke Weaver and Raisel Iglesias.
Signing one of those relievers to a three- or four-year deal not only would bolster the Sox for 2026, but also give them a potential long-term replacement for Chapman, who will pitch next season at 38.
Orioles in closer market, too
Earlier this week, one rival executive observed, “It seems the only team willing to open the checkbook right now is Baltimore.” The Orioles’ early activity — a trade for reliever Andrew Kittredge, exercising of his $9 million club option and signing of free-agent outfielder Leody Taveras for one year and $2 million — should be a sign of things to come.
As general manager Mike Elias pointed out Wednesday, the Orioles’ current $92 million payroll, as estimated by Fangraphs, is far below their estimated final figure for 2025 of $160 million. A top-of-the-rotation starter and veteran hitter are among the Orioles’ targets. So is a closer, with Félix Bautista expected to miss most of the season recovering from shoulder surgery and Elias viewing Kittredge as more of a setup type.
“Ideally, we’re going to acquire somebody who has closer experience, that’s good against righties and lefties,” Elias said. “There are a few teams (trying to do) that. Maybe there’s not enough to go around. But it’s at the top of our list.
“We’re being very intentional in talking with those free agents and checking in on trade possibilities. I would really like to get that. Obviously, there are many ways to build a bullpen. It’s something teams and front offices can sort of do over the course of a season. But our preference is to land an experienced closer this winter.”
Elias said he is willing to forfeit a draft pick by signing a player who rejected a qualifying offer — a departure from last offseason, when he was reluctant to sign a starting pitcher with a QO and wound up adding only Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano.
Donovan among Cardinals who could go
The St. Louis Cardinals are not entering a full-fledged rebuild under new president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom, but the club will entertain trade offers for several star players as it shifts its focus to player development and homegrown talent.
Bloom is expected to trade third baseman Nolan Arenado, who has already told him he would waive his no-trade clause for an expanded list of teams. Ownership is willing to pay a significant portion of the remaining two years on Arenado’s contract to facilitate a trade, a stance it was unwilling to take last season. It would do the same to move right-hander Sonny Gray, who is owed $35 million in 2026.
Offloading veteran contracts, however, is far from the Cardinals’ only priority. They also will look to trade from their surplus of left-handed hitters, a group that includes Brendan Donovan. A first-time All Star last season, Donovan missed most of the final six weeks due to a nagging groin injury and underwent sports hernia repair surgery in October. But he is expected to be fully ready by spring training.
While the organization holds Donovan in high regard, the argument to move him involves the timing of the Cardinals’ next competitive window. Donovan will turn 29 in January and has two years remaining before free agency.
The Cardinals do not expect to be a fully competitive team within that timeframe, so it would make sense to maximize Donovan when his value is high. The impending arrival of top prospect JJ Wetherholt — who posted a combined .910 OPS between Double A and Triple A in his first full professional season and is also left-handed — makes Donovan expendable.
St. Louis also is expecting to entertain trade offers on Lars Nootbaar, who was in heavy demand at the deadline. Nootbaar, 28, underwent double heel surgery at the end of the season, putting his Opening Day availability — and overall trade value — in question. Still, with several teams searching for outfield help, a market could develop for Nootbaar, especially as his recovery progresses. The Cardinals would prefer to keep Alec Burleson and Iván Herrera, but will field calls on the majority of the roster, including Nolan Gorman and Pedro Páges.
Pitching depth is a concern for the Cardinals, and they will look to add a cost-controlled starting pitcher and an experienced back-end reliever as potential stop-gap solutions.
Royals face decisions on India, LF
Jonathan India endured a frustrating first season with the Kansas City Royals, posting a career-low .669 OPS after the Royals switched him to third base and left field, then returned him to second base in late May.
Now the question is whether the Royals will tender India a contract by the Nov. 21 deadline. MLB Trade Rumors estimates India will earn $7.4 million in his final year of arbitration before free agency. But some in the industry believe his number will be even higher.
Trading India when his salary is up and his value is down will not be easy. The free-agent options at second currently include Torres and Jorge Polanco. Bo Bichette and Ha-Seong Kim also could be possibilities if they are willing to move from shortstop.
The Royals, trying to address left field through a trade or free agency, could fill the position with multiple platoon types if they can’t get the everyday player they want. The left-handed hitting Mike Yastrzemski, who hit nine homers and produced an .839 OPS after arriving from San Francisco in a deadline trade, would be among the platoon possibilities.
If the Royals move quickly on a left fielder, it’s conceivable they could keep India at second, banking on a bounce-back season. But moving quickly will be a challenge. In their conversations with other clubs, the Royals learned they were trying to do the same thing as three other teams — trade pitching for a left fielder.
Polanco versatility appeals
Teams are considering Jorge Polanco at first base and third as well as second base, people familiar with talks regarding the free agent said.
Polanco, who had knee surgery in October 2024, demonstrated better health in 2025, bouncing back offensively and playing more frequently at second base in the second half. He made just 34 starts at second base overall but 15 of them were in September.
For his career, Polanco, 32, has played in just one game at first base (it happened last season) and 29 games at third, but he took groundballs last season at both positions.
In 138 games, the switch-hitter hit 26 home runs with an .821 OPS.
Maton won’t sign late this time, but there was a benefit
Free agency offers no guarantees, but reliever Phil Maton signing earlier than he did last time seems a good bet.
As a free agent last offseason, Maton didn’t sign until he received a one-year deal worth $2 million from the St. Louis Cardinals on March 13th. This time, early interest in the right-hander suggests a much quicker resolution. And in a twist, Maton discovered one interesting benefit to signing late in his last go-around.
Since Maton didn’t have much of a full spring training to build a rapport with Cardinals catchers, he started calling his own pitches via PitchCom for the first time — and ended up having a terrific season. Over 61 1/3 innings, Maton had a career-best 2.79 ERA with a 32.7 percent strikeout rate, his highest figure since the shortened 2020 season.
Known around the league for his pitching IQ, Maton also reworked his mechanics, helping him boost his velocity. Maton, 32, has never thrown especially hard. But he increased the average velocity on his cutter from 88.7 mph in 2024 to 90.6 mph in 2025. With teams continuing to value velocity, it’s not out of the question to think Maton may find a way to reach another gear.
Rays seeking rotation help
The Tampa Bay Rays are looking to add a veteran innings-eater to their rotation on a short-term deal, league sources said.
The Rays’ rotation doesn’t lack talent, but could use a stable presence. Shane McClanahan is trending positively, but hasn’t pitched in a major-league game since 2023. Drew Rasmussen made 31 starts in 2025, but carries an injury history. Ryan Pepiot and Shane Baz are coming off professional career highs in innings in a season.
For the Rays, someone in the mold of free-agent Adrian Houser, whom Tampa Bay acquired last summer at the trade deadline, might make sense.