It always feels odd to write a preview for a game that has essentially just happened. And yet, just about every season since these home-home mini-series have been instituted, I’ve ended up doing just that. I’m not sure how I manage to do it so consistently. Most of the time, I’m just looking to cover games that fit my schedule, rather than seeking out specific contests for entertainment purposes. And here I am again, trying to find something new to say about a match-up so recent that I can still faintly smell Scott Foster’s BENGAY® from the last one.
The thing is, the Spurs *should* win this one. They have a better offensive and defensive rating (9th and 6th) than Golden State (22nd and 10th). Their net rating is 11 places better (11th vs. 17th), their rebounding and rebounding percentages are better (4th and 10th vs. 21st and 23rd), even their effective field-goal percentage and true shooting percentage (4th and 5th vs. 15th and 14th) are better.
As far as I can tell, the only things that the Golden State Warriors do truly better than the Spurs are ball movement (4th in assist percentage vs. 22nd) and not getting called for fouling the opposition (3rd in opponent foul rate vs. 18th).
Even then, their turnover issues are almost identical (24th in turnover percentage and 21st in assist-to-turnover ratio vs. 22nd and 18th), essentially nullifying one of those points.
The Spurs are better at scoring 2nd chance points (2nd vs. 19th), fast-break points (6th vs 20th), and points in the paint (10th vs. 30th). They’re better at limiting fast-break points (3rd vs. 8th), limiting points in the paint (2nd vs. 19th), and limiting shots made overall (6th in opponent field-goal percentage and 4th in opponent field goals made vs. 19th and 18th).
The only other visible advantage is in three-point shooting, where the Spurs fall short in both three-pointers made (22nd vs. 4th) and made against them (27th vs. 11th). As we all know, that’s not a small thing.
However, what this basically confirms is that the Warriors played their version of a perfect game in San Antonio’s last loss. In a vacuum, they’re worse defenders, just as turnover-prone, and significantly disadvantaged in the post and on the boards.
They took 57 three-pointers against the Spurs, won the turnover battle, and took 20 more free throws, and they still only won by five points. They *should* have lost to the Spurs, and without the advantage in even one of those areas, they almost certainly would have.
That’s the sort of thing that the young Spurs should have seen watching the tape. They’ll know they could and should win this game if they tighten things up just a little. The Warriors are a team of proud vets, though, and the Spurs can’t take that for granted.
Still, the advantages should be theirs. Surely the circumstances of the last game won’t repeat themselves. Right? Right?!
November 14th, 2025 | 8:30 PM CT
Watch: Amazon Prime Video | Listen: WOAI (1200 AM)
Spurs Injuries: Dylan Harper – Out (Calf)
Warriors Injuries: Jonathan Kuminga — Questionable (Knee), Alex Toohey — Out (Knee), De’Anthony Melton — Out (Knee)