MINNEAPOLIS — The throw was inexcusable, and J.J. McCarthy knew as soon as the ball left his hand.
Misses had already begun to accumulate. But this one? A third-and-7 attempt toward superstar receiver Justin Jefferson, angled toward the right sideline? Put it in the vicinity, and Jefferson makes the catch in his sleep.
McCarthy couldn’t do it. The pass sailed into the Chicago Bears’ bench. Afterward, McCarthy clasped his helmet with both hands, as if to ask himself what every Vikings fan was asking aloud: How?
“You just can’t miss those,” McCarthy said. “This league is too hard.”
It would be one thing if this were an isolated incident in the Minnesota Vikings’ discouraging 19-17 home loss to the Chicago Bears. But it wasn’t. Not only had McCarthy’s accuracy been a problem in his previous four starts, but the issue surfaced Sunday from the outset.
Deep balls fell short. Checkdowns came in hot. Some were a byproduct of bad mechanics. Others seemed to be the result of McCarthy’s tendency to climb into trouble. At times, he appeared to get rid of the ball too slowly. In other instances, often moving frenetically in the pocket, he’d uncork a heater that would not even hit Victor Wembanyama’s catch radius.
The numbers tell the story. McCarthy completed 16 of 32 passes for 150 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Most of his pass attempts weren’t affected by pressure. The Bears blitzed on fewer than 40 percent of the snaps. And their four-man rush, which has been as passive as any other in the NFL, only reached the quarterback on three of 19 snaps.
Until the Vikings’ go-ahead drive, which began with 3:14 remaining in the fourth quarter, McCarthy hadn’t completed a pass in the second half. The Vikings were running at a rate that even coach Kevin O’Connell admitted was abnormally high. It was the choice that gave Minnesota the best chance. McCarthy could not be relied upon to do the thing that has been the identity of this organization for multiple seasons.
“It starts with the pitching and catching,” O’Connell said.
Before this season began, and especially in training camp, O’Connell dismissed regular references to McCarthy being a rookie. Sure, the 22-year-old missed the 2024 season with a torn meniscus. But no, O’Connell maintained, last year was not entirely lost. Even then, nobody in the building hid their belief that a dominant defense and an effective run game would be the franchise’s formula for success this season.
Still, the Vikings thought McCarthy could convert in-rhythm throws. They felt that as long as he could execute on a few of the weightier downs and distances each game, the team would be in playoff position by season’s end.
Yet McCarthy’s inability to do the simple has made the hard even less feasible. It has also added to the need for near-perfection everywhere else.
The team hasn’t come close to that level. Early in the season, a lack of protection led to leakage in the offense. Last week, the Vikings committed eight false starts at U.S. Bank Stadium. On Sunday, a reliable target in Jordan Addison dropped a potentially game-altering throw on a third-and-7 over-the-middle attempt in the first quarter. He also couldn’t haul in an open pass to the flat in the third quarter.
“If I make those types of plays,” Addison said, “we win. No doubt.”
Other pass catchers failed to help McCarthy. Tight end T.J. Hockenson had a throw slip through his hands. Receiver Adam Thielen couldn’t corral a ball over the middle.
The Vikings special teams unit had its own hand in the final result. Though rookie Myles Price set up the comeback with a 43-yard punt return in the fourth quarter, the special teams phase allowed a 56-yard return that set up the Bears’ game-winning field goal.
All of these plays speak to the nature of this 4-6 team. Any misstep next to the quarterback is magnified, and the stress of that razor-thin margin for error is tangible. That is especially true for a group of veteran players whose objective is to win now, rather than travel the journey of quarterback development with no guarantees.
“Everybody feels like it’s difficult,” Jefferson said. “It’s not something that we’re keeping under the rug or anything. Yes, it’s difficult. But as a team, as a captain, as a leader of this team, I have to be the first one out there. I have to be headfirst, leading us into that direction of winning, of being where we need to be.”
Writing off anybody with seven games left to play would be foolish. However, The Athletic’s model only gives the Vikings a 3 percent chance of making the postseason.
These circumstances punctuate what has been apparent for weeks. Next week’s matchup with the Green Bay Packers, the ensuing week’s game against the Seattle Seahawks and everything after that is about assessing McCarthy’s progress.
Can Minnesota get to a place where it trusts McCarthy to throw over the middle in unfavorable downs and distances? Right now, the bar to clear is far lower. It would suffice to arrive at a place where there is faith in McCarthy to accurately place the ball in rhythm.
Even during Sunday’s game, O’Connell approached McCarthy on the sideline with reminders. He frequently used the phrase “feet and eyes,” a coaching point designed to keep McCarthy focused on the process. The Vikings knew he’d need to make some adjustments when they drafted him out of Michigan. He tended to overstride, causing consistency issues.
Now, the variance is tied to his lack of balance within the clutter of the pocket. In the second quarter, Bears safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson blitzed off the edge, and although he wasn’t close to McCarthy, the quarterback stepped up aggressively. He moved himself into a suboptimal spot, and his eventual throw was intercepted by Bears safety Kevin Byard III. McCarthy’s second interception, which occurred with 42 seconds left in the first half, was the result of poor mechanics due to overrotation.
“We’ve just learned that when he has great posture at the top of drops,” O’Connell said, “he throws the ball really well.”
The evidence existed before Sunday, and it re-emerged on the final drive. McCarthy orchestrated a 10-play, 85-yard touchdown drive. Perhaps as confounding as anything was a degree of composure that hadn’t been present throughout the afternoon. McCarthy couldn’t pinpoint any ingredient to the change, and his professional history doesn’t suggest it’ll carry over next week.
Hoping for the best was much easier to do months ago. The role of these next seven games for the Vikings should be to assess McCarthy and ensure they enter the 2026 season with certainty.