For much of the season, it’s seemed as if coaching carousel narratives have overshadowed the action on the field. This week, we’re finally getting down to the good stuff with the College Football Playoff race.
So of course, how perfectly 2025 it is that one of the coaches for one of the contenders might leave for one of the schools that already fired its coach.
I still want to talk Playoff.
(Note: Submitted questions have been lightly edited for length and clarity.)
There is a vociferous debate about Miami and Notre Dame’s relative position in the polls, as both teams are 8-2 at this point. ND fans argue that A) the Week 1 loss to Miami in the first game is less important than recent results, and B) that ND’s losses to Miami and Texas A&M are better than Miami’s losses to SMU and Louisville. However, ND can’t point to a statement win on their resume like Miami has over ND. Is it fair to discount a win/loss early in the season? They all count, right? — Stephen, Marietta, Ga.
All the games count, which both sides are justified in saying. Miami fans are understandably screaming, “Hello?! Did you forget we played each other in the first game?” All 12 games should count. And Notre Dame fans are saying, we agree, all 12 games should count — and that one was just one of them.
I’ve always felt head-to-head results matter, but they come in all shapes and sizes. Going to another team’s stadium and beating them carries more weight with me than beating them at home. Losing on a last-second field goal is a lot more excusable than losing by 21. And yes, timing matters. Common sense tells us a game played in November is a lot more reflective of the teams we’ll be seeing in the Playoff than a game played in August, like Notre Dame-Miami.
If the committee thinks, based on 12 games of data, that Miami is a better team than Notre Dame, then by all means, rank them in that order. But if everything else is telling you the Irish are the better team, then don’t contort the rankings just to fit them around a game played nearly three months ago, in which the home team won by three points on a last-minute field goal. Home-field advantage alone is worth three points.
My own opinion, having watched both of these teams over the course of the season, is that Notre Dame has rounded into a team capable of getting back to the national championship game. Quarterback CJ Carr is the nation’s third-rated passer, trailing only Ohio State’s Julian Sayin and Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza. Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price form a lethal backfield tandem. And the Irish defense has gotten much better over the last two months.
Jekyll and Hyde Miami seems more like a talented but underachieving college basketball team that squeezes its way into the NCAA Tournament and loses in the first round. Mostly because I don’t trust Carson Beck to be consistent and avoid turnovers. But Miami looked great last week against NC State, and I may revise my opinion if they win these next two road games against Virginia Tech and Pitt.
If the SEC gets six teams into the CFP, would that be the end of this version of the CFP? Regardless of whether you view it as warranted, I have to imagine that the Big Ten, ACC and Big 12 would cry bloody murder. — Christopher D.
They might, but I’m not sure that would accomplish anything. This is the last year of the original 12-year CFP contract, when all conferences had to approve any changes. Next year begins the new deal, where the Big Ten and SEC have all the authority. And right now, they don’t agree on much of anything. Particularly Playoff formats.
While Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti was busy trying to convince us that fans want to see 8-4 teams in play-in games, Greg Sankey convinced his colleagues to allow a change to the selection committee metrics to better reward strength of schedule — which better rewards the SEC.
Beginning in 2025, not 2026 or later.
But that’s not the main reason six bids are on the table this year. It’s more so what’s going on in the other leagues. The Big Ten is top-heavy and may end up with only three realistic candidates: Ohio State, Indiana and Oregon. The Big 12 has no big nonconference wins to prop up an at-large candidate besides Texas Tech. The ACC is atrocious, so it’s hard to argue it merits two bids, though Miami may still rise.
And then there’s Notre Dame, which is effectively the swing state of this year’s field. It will be hard for the committee to justify dropping the Irish out of an at-large field they’ve been part of since the first rankings, unless Notre Dame loses to Syracuse or Stanford.
But if the Irish choke against a three-win team, then the seas might part. Here’s how:
Eight teams — Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, Georgia, Texas Tech, Ole Miss, Oregon and Oklahoma — comfortably make it with or without a conference title. The ACC champion (we’ll say Virginia) and Group of 5 champion (we’ll say North Texas) make it 10.
Alabama finishes with three, possibly four Top 25 wins (at Georgia, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, possibly at Missouri). No other at-large candidate can touch that resume. Alabama is the 11th team, fifth from the SEC.
BYU loses at Cincinnati this week and Miami loses at Pittsburgh next week. No at-larges for them.
Vanderbilt beats Tennessee and finishes 10-2. Utah finishes either 10-2 or, if it gets into the Big 12 title game and loses, 10-3. They square off for the last at-large berth.
The Commodores’ best wins would be against Missouri and Tennessee, both 8-4 in this scenario. Utah’s would be against 9-3 or 8-4 Cincinnati and Arizona State. Neither team has a bad loss. That’s where Sankey’s metrics come in. The committee doesn’t publish its strength-of-record ratings, but ESPN’s has Vanderbilt No. 11, Utah No. 18.
The Commodores grab the 12th berth, the sixth from the SEC. Unless Texas beats Texas A&M, in which case the 9-3 Longhorns, now holding three top-15 wins — including one head-to-head over the Commodores — take their place.
Almost all of those results will have occurred one way or the other by the time Notre Dame kicks off at Stanford on Nov. 29 at 10 p.m. ET. In which case, America, you may have a tough decision. Do you root for the 4-7 or 3-8 Cardinal to ruin the Irish’s season, or do you root for Notre Dame to stave off the SEC Apocalypse?
James Franklin to Virginia Tech! Does that make them an eight- to nine-win team overnight in a weak ACC? Or even instant conference championship contenders — Jeff H.
Hard to say without yet knowing a single member of his first roster, but I’m bullish on his chances, if not in Year 1, then shortly thereafter. It’s one of those rare hires that makes perfect sense for both parties.
Virginia Tech has always had a lot going for it in the ACC, where Frank Beamer led the Hokies to four conference championships during the school’s first seven years in the league. It is one of the ACC’s few true “football schools,” along with Clemson, Florida State and Miami, with one of the best home atmospheres in the sport. It’s in a talent-rich state. And it has produced a who’s who of NFL alums. But the program wasn’t prepared for life after Beamer, and it compounded that with two underwhelming hires in Justin Fuente and Brent Pry.
Which makes this the perfect time to bring in a high-profile coach who has won at a high level. Franklin arrives just as the university approved a four-year, $229 million investment in athletics that should put it at or near the top of the ACC in resources. And at a time when the ACC could not be more wide open, what with two of its marquee programs, Clemson and Florida State, knee-deep in existential crises.
Meanwhile, Franklin gets a fresh start at a place where the expectations aren’t as suffocating as Penn State’s. I’m old enough to remember when Franklin was the “fun” guy at Vanderbilt, living his best life winning nine games a year. At Penn State the last few seasons, he often looked miserable winning 11 games. The weight of coming close but not quite to the pinnacle year after year seemed to beat him down.
But he’s not guaranteed success by any means. I’ve seen plenty of big-name coaches whose second (or third) acts wound up a disappointment. See: Mark Richt at Miami, Chip Kelly at UCLA, Kevin Sumlin at Arizona, Gus Malzahn at UCF, and most recently, Hugh Freeze at Auburn.
If you’re Virginia Tech, you’re hoping for your own South Carolina Steve Spurrier, Washington State Mike Leach or, currently ongoing (at least for now), Ole Miss Lane Kiffin.
Fernando Mendoza had his Heisman moment last week. Did Marcel Reed have his Heisman moment this week? Who are the top 5 in the Heisman race? — Garrett R., Gainesville, Texas
All the smart people on the internet think Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez should be a Heisman finalist. All the people who don’t know ball don’t list him as a top contender. Should he be a Heisman finalist. — Robert P, McKinney, Texas
As Ralph Russo asked on our Sunday episode of “The Audible,” can a guy lose and win the Heisman in the same game? That was Reed on Saturday. I don’t think he won it, but he wasn’t really in the conversation before, and he is now.
But this might be a season where the race will come down to who has the best game on the last weekend of the season, and with that in mind, it pays to project forward and think about which of the contenders will still be playing on Dec. 6 and/or who would be in position to make the strongest closing argument. And then rank them by likelihood from there:
1. Mendoza, if he beats 12-0 Ohio State in the Big Ten title game.
2. Ohio State’s Julian Sayin, if he beats 12-0 Indiana.
3. Reed, if he caps a 13-0 SEC championship season.
4. Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith, if he goes off against Michigan and Indiana, reminding everyone he’s still the best player in college football.
5. Georgia’s Gunner Stockton, especially if he beats 12-0 Texas A&M.
That may be the entire list at this point. Though perhaps if Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia gets to 10-2 and has a monster game in the Commodores’ finale against Tennessee, he could move ahead of those players before championship weekend.
Notre Dame’s Jeremiyah Love is fantastic, but he’s not the frontrunner, so I don’t see how he vaults over the others with Notre Dame finishing against Syracuse and Stanford.
The list of guys who can get to New York is obviously much longer, and Rodriguez is on it. Texas Tech is sure going to the mat for him, even lining him up in the backfield for a goal-line touchdown. My only issue is that it’s not a given he’s the best defensive player on his own team, much less the country, when David Bailey leads the nation in sacks. But I’d have no problem with it.
The point of the CFP expansion was to keep more teams, fan bases and regions of the country interested deeper into the season. So, with that in mind, how many teams are still alive for the CFP heading into Week 13? And how many of them would already be eliminated from the four-team CFP? — Brian S., Buford, Ga.
This list is always going to be long, but it is insanely long this year due to the wide-open Group of 5 race and the potential for wild tiebreakers in the ACC and Big 12, where it’s going to get falling-down drunk if Cincinnati beats BYU this week.
Let’s break it down by conference. (Note: I did not include teams that are mathematically alive but would require an unrealistic miracle.)
ACC (6): Georgia Tech, Virginia, Miami, Pitt, SMU, Duke
Big 12 (6): Texas Tech, BYU, Utah, Arizona State, Cincinnati, Houston
Big Ten (5): Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon, USC, Michigan
SEC (7): Texas A&M, Georgia, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Texas
Independent (1): Notre Dame
G5 (7): Navy, Tulane, North Texas, East Carolina, USF, San Diego State, James Madison
In total, 32 remain alive for 12 spots, even with most teams down to their last one or two games.
Were we still at four teams, with no automatic berths, the entire list would be:
1. Ohio State
2. Indiana
3. Texas A&M
4. Georgia
5. Ole Miss
6. Texas Tech
7. Oregon
8. Alabama (because it can still realistically win the SEC at 11-2, and would hold head-to-head tiebreakers over Georgia and Texas A&M, if that’s who the Tide beat in Atlanta.)
So in tripling the size of the field, they’ve in fact quadrupled the number of remaining contenders this late into the season. Someone else will need to do the math for when they inevitably go to 24.
Do you remember when LSU talked themselves into the BCS Championship with an argument of “we are undefeated in regulation?” — John L., Storrs, Connecticut
I like where your head is at. UConn at 8-3 is also currently undefeated in regulation. Tell the committee. Just don’t tell them the losses were to Syracuse, Delaware and Rice.
Do you think the committee will allow a team to miss its conference championship game and still get a first-round bye? It seems unfair, but Georgia is already in the top 4 and will likely avoid the SEC Championship. We all complained about the conference champs getting a bye automatically, and it was silly last year for Boise State to get one, but at the same time it seems deeply unfair for a team to get basically a double bye. — Kyle L.
Maybe the CFP should just have no firm rules from year to year, and instead wait to see how the season plays out and build the format from there.
Is this a year where the ACC/Big 12/G5 champs are pretty good? Then it is decreed: Only conference champs get byes.
Is it a year where the top four teams are all Big Ten and SEC? Straight seeding, then.
Oh, but one of those four missed its conference title game? In that case, new rule. It’d be the top four teams that made their conference title game, win or lose.
Oh, but one of those teams lost by three touchdowns? Then we only have three byes that year, and we add a 13th team to get to four quarterfinals.
My point is: There is never, ever going to be a perfect postseason format. I’d still rather have a straight-up top 4, even if it means Georgia gets an “unfair” advantage, than a contrived bracket like we had last year when No. 1 (in the CFP rankings) Oregon drew No. 6 Ohio State in one quarterfinal while No. 4 Penn State played No. 9 Boise State.
Also, were that to happen, I’m not sure Kirby Smart would consider it an advantage. You saw what happened to the bye teams last year, including with Smart’s own team. And this would be an even longer break. Georgia’s last regular-season game is Nov. 28, and it wouldn’t play again until Dec. 31 or Jan. 1, against an opponent that played less than two weeks earlier.
Perhaps some coaches would still prefer the rest and recovery time over the wear and tear of an extra game. Smart does not strike me as one of them.