Each season at The Athletic, reporters Scott Wheeler and Harman Dayal publish a quarterly Calder Trophy breakdown, ranking the top rookies in the NHL.

Through 20 or so games for every team, New York Islanders rookie defenseman Matthew Schaefer is the clear front-runner for the top of the ballots. However, the rookie class behind him is tightly packed.

Here’s Wheeler and Dayal’s joint top 10 at the quarter mark of the 2025-26 season.

1. Matthew Schaefer — LHD, 18, New York Islanders 

Stats: 20 GP, 7G-8A-15P, 22:30 ATOI

The NHL has been blessed with some historic seasons from rookie defensemen over the last half-dozen years, including those of Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes and Lane Hutson. However, what Matthew Schaefer is accomplishing relative to his age is shockingly precocious and unprecedented this century.

Schaefer just turned 18 this past September; had he been born 11 days later, he wouldn’t have been draft-eligible until 2026. For reference, when Makar had just turned 18, he was in the early stages of his draft season for the Brooks Bandits of the Alberta Junior Hockey League. Schaefer has a chance to author the best season we’ve ever seen from an 18-year-old NHL defenseman.

Only three defenders in history have eclipsed the 40-point mark as an 18-year-old: Phil Housley (66 points), Rasmus Dahlin (44 points) and Bobby Orr (41 points). With seven goals and 15 points in 20 games, Schaefer is easily on track to enter that rarified air.

The most impressive part about Schaefer’s early impact is that he’s been excellent outside of just the flashy point totals. He has fundamentally transformed the Islanders with his elite skating and puck-moving ability from the back end. He’s never cheated for offense, and his defensive play has been mature and steady. Schaefer is averaging nearly 23 minutes per game, being trusted with increasingly difficult defensive matchups and winning the two-way battle, with the Islanders generating more shots and goals than they surrender during his five-on-five minutes.

This isn’t just a young defender piling up points in sheltered minutes; Schaefer is performing like an elite, do-it-all No. 1 defenseman. Versus the Avalanche, for example, he played 5:10 head-to-head against Nathan MacKinnon at five-on-five. In those minutes, Colorado generated a measly 0.12 expected goals offensively.

If Schaefer keeps this up, he’ll be one of the top 5-10 defensemen in the Norris Trophy race.

2. Ivan Demidov — RW, 19, Montreal Canadiens

Stats: 19 GP, 4G-10A-14PTS, 14:28 ATOI

Schaefer is the best rookie in the NHL, but Ivan Demidov might be the most purely skilled. And a year after he led SKA in scoring, playing 13 minutes and change a night in the KHL, he’s now producing at a 60-point pace, playing 14 minutes and change a night in the NHL. That’s normally the magic number for Calder consideration, and yet it still feels as if he has another level to find. Demidov leads all rookie forwards in scoring, and he has done it without playing alongside the Habs’ top dogs at even strength and while bouncing on and off the top power-play unit. He looks like he’s going to become one of the league’s most talented wingers.

3. Alexander Nikishin — LHD, 24, Carolina Hurricanes

Stats: 19 GP, 2G-6A-8P, 20:06 ATOI

The Hurricanes’ 13-5-1 record is impressive considering the rash of blue line injuries they’ve faced, as Jaccob Slavin, K’Andre Miller, Jalen Chatfield and Shayne Gostisbehere have all missed time at various stages. Alexander Nikishin’s two-way impact is one of the key reasons Carolina’s back end has stayed afloat.

Nikishin has averaged 20:06, logging significant minutes at both even strength and on the penalty kill. He’s decisively winning his two-way matchups, with the Canes controlling 57 percent of shot attempts and outscoring opponents by a dominant 21-9 margin during his five-on-five shifts.

The towering 24-year-old Russian has a fun, old-school flavor to his game, with his knack for throwing massive hits and unloading booming point shots.

There are some raw qualities to Nikishin’s game, but he has demonstrated a mature, advanced understanding of how to shut down plays defensively. He’s also skilled enough to break pucks out and contribute offensively. In fact, there’s untapped upside for Nikishin to produce more points as the season rolls on. Also, he’s barely received any power-play time despite perennially being one of the highest-scoring defensemen in the KHL before his North American arrival.

Nikishin may not be a household name yet, but he has all the makings of a budding star with his tantalizing combination of size, physicality, defensive acumen and offensive upside.

4. Artyom Levshunov — RHD, 20, Chicago Blackhawks

Stats: 18 GP, 0G-10A-10PTS, 16:08

Artyom Levshunov has had a rocky start to the year, making a lot of mistakes early and even getting healthy scratched. However, he has really turned a corner over the last dozen or so games. His game might always come with some brain cramps, but he also looks like a force when he’s at his best, involving himself in everything that happens on the ice and playing freely. He has played to positive results overall this year at five-on-five, and while Sam Rinzel got the benefit of the doubt on the top power play to start the season, the Blackhawks have handed the keys to that unit to Levshunov. He has played beyond his ice-time season average in seven straight games now, and it doesn’t appear he’s going to look back from here on out.

That first NHL goal is coming, too.

5. Beckett Sennecke — RW, 19, Anaheim Ducks

Stats: 19 GP, 6G-7A-13P, 16:31 ATOI

Leo Carlsson’s and Cutter Gauthier’s monster breakouts have overshadowed the immediate impact Beckett Sennecke has had in SoCal. The No. 3 pick in 2024, Sennecke has gone from not even being a lock for a full-time NHL roster spot in training camp to becoming a top-six fixture. Sennecke is on pace for nearly 60 points and has been part of a lethal second line with Mason McTavish and Gauthier, which has controlled over 58 percent of expected goals and outscored opponents by an 8-3 margin.

The lanky 6-foot-3 winger can impact the game in many ways. He’s a gifted puckhandler and skates well for his size, which adds to Anaheim’s terrifying speed and skill off the rush. Here’s an example of him deking through the New Jersey Devils’ defense for a high-danger chance:

Sennecke also has some power elements to his game. He leverages his long wingspan to win puck battles and extend offensive zone possessions, and has shown some edge to his game. It’s exciting to think about how lethal his toolkit could become in future years once he adds muscle and fills out his frame. Sennecke’s intelligence is also an underrated asset. Watch his impressive vision to find the backdoor tap-in rather than shoot on this overtime winner against Utah earlier this week:

6. Arturs Silovs — G, 24, Pittsburgh Penguins

Stats: 4-2-4, .917 SV%

There are a few ingredients behind the Penguins’ surprise ascent into an early playoff spot.

Pittsburgh’s power play is currently the best in the NHL. Evgeni Malkin has turned back the clock and is playing at a near 100-point pace. Ben Kindel has turned heads as an 18-year-old. However, for all those surprises, there’s arguably none bigger than the impact of Kyle Dubas’ bargain-bin offseason additions, with Arturs Silovs, Parker Wotherspoon, Anthony Mantha and Justin Brazeau (before his injury) providing a significant boost.

Silovs’ early numbers have been terrific; he’s lost just twice in regulation over 10 starts, is sporting an outstanding .917 save percentage and ranks top 10 among all NHL goaltenders for goals saved above expected.

The 24-year-old Latvian’s breakout isn’t a complete fluke. He first turned heads during the 2024 Stanley Cup playoffs when he took over as Vancouver’s starter following injuries to Thatcher Demko and Casey DeSmith. Silovs performed so well in that high-leverage situation that, with Demko injured to begin last season, he got the nod as the Canucks’ opening night starter. He struggled at the beginning of last season and was demoted to the AHL, where he was named playoff MVP, guiding the Abbotsford Canucks to a Calder Cup championship.

With Silovs waivers-eligible and stuck behind Demko and Kevin Lankinen, the Canucks dealt him to Pittsburgh last summer to avoid losing him for nothing on waivers. Silovs’ side-to-side athleticism, quick reactions to in-tight chances and ability to take the bottom half of the net away have all shone in Pittsburgh. He has been a streaky, inconsistent goaltender throughout his career, so he still needs to prove that this is sustainable rather than just a hot start. Still, there’s a genuine possibility he turned a corner during his sensational AHL playoff run last spring.

7. Yaroslav Askarov — G, 23, San Jose Sharks

Stats: 6-5-1, .907 SV%

The Sharks are still not a playoff team, but they are competitive now. A year after they had a league-worst 52-point season and surrendered a league-worst 315 goals, they’re on pace for 86 points and a reduction to a still-poor but more respectable 267 goals against. Askarov has been a big part of that — he currently sits 12th in the NHL in MoneyPuck’s goals saved above expected model at +6.9 through 12 games played, and has clearly been the better of the Sharks’ two goalies over Alex Nedeljkovic. Askarov has also played 12 of 20 games, which tracks for a 50-game season. If he can maintain these numbers over that kind of a workload, he’ll get onto some ballots at the end of the year.

8.  Zeev Buium — LHD, 19, Minnesota Wild

Stats: 20 GP, 3G-7A-10PTS, 18:57 ATOI

The Wild let Zeev Buium sink or swim out of the gate this season, and while he was highly productive in the early going, he was also getting caved in defensively. They’ve since scaled back his usage, and his defensive play has rebounded, but his production has also slowed. He’s going to be an awesome player, but it’s hard to play defense in the NHL as a teenager, and Buium is learning that. There’s a reason Simon Nemec, a similarly sized, similarly talented defender, is only now beginning to hit his stride at 21. Buium is playing at a 41-point pace as a rookie D, though, and if his defensive results can stabilize, he could still play his way into the mix.

9. Jimmy Snuggerud — RW, 21, St. Louis Blues

Stats: 20 GP, 5G-6A-11P, 19:36 ATOI

Snuggerud has been one of the few bright spots for the Blues in what’s otherwise been a disappointing start to the season. Eleven points in 20 games might not be an eye-catching total, but it’s solid production considering how little the club has manufactured offensively as a whole. Snuggerud is tied for second-most points on the team.

The 21-year-old sniper has been noticeable in almost every game, playing on the top line with Robert Thomas. Snuggerud plays a direct, assertive, shot-first game. He’s generated the most shots on goal of all rookie forwards and has been a prolific chance creator, leading the Blues in individual expected goals per 60. He has a lethal shot from distance, but is also pesky at retrieving pucks and forcing turnovers in the attacking end.

It probably hasn’t helped Snuggerud’s production that his linemates this year, Pavel Buchnevich and Thomas, have underperformed in the early going. Buchnevich’s play, in particular, has fallen off a cliff, leading to some reshuffling in the top six. Hopefully, Thomas and whoever sticks on the opposite wing can jell, because it feels as if Snuggerud is one of St. Louis’ only top-six forwards living up to expectations so far.

T10. Jesper Wallstedt — G, 23, Minnesota Wild

Stats: 4-0-2, .924 SV%

T10. Matthew Wood — RW, 20, Nashville Predators

Stats: 13 GP, 6G-4A-10PTS, 13:17 ATOI

Jesper Wallstedt and Matthew Wood don’t yet have the sample size to truly be in the conversation, but we wanted to make note of their impressive play. A year after Wallstedt battled injuries and poor play in the AHL, and Team Canada cut Wood as a returnee at the World Juniors, their emergence is a big deal for their organizations. Wallstedt has yet to lose in regulation and Wood has made an immediate impact on Nashville’s power play. If they continue to perform like they have, they could rise on this list.

Honorable mentions: Oliver Kapanen, Arseny Gritsyuk, Ryan Leonard, Ben Kindel, Emmitt Finnie