Hollywood’s newest Oscar category has everyone guessing.

After decades of advocacy for one of filmmaking’s essential crafts, the Academy will present the first competitive award for achievement in casting at the 98th ceremony. The honor marks the first new Oscar category since best animated feature in 2001. Variety has confirmed that the award will be included in the main ceremony.

As Hollywood prepares for this historic debut, it is experiencing something rare: collective uncertainty. Nobody quite knows how to campaign for it — or predict the outcome. Refreshing, isn’t it?

In practice, the new category follows a clear but rigorous structure. All eligible films enter the preliminary ballot, where active members of the Casting Directors Branch vote to create a 10-film shortlist. This is notable because, outside of best picture, no other category allows members to vote for 10 titles. In theory, it incentivizes the branch to watch more films and could open the door for more surprising, left-field choices. If successful, this could be something the other shortlist categories could adopt in the future.

After the shortlist is set, the achievements advance to a bake-off — an in-person and virtual showcase featuring a five-minute reel of selected scenes and a pre-recorded Q&A with each film’s casting director(s). Branch members will view the bake-off and vote for up to five achievements, determining the official nominees. Finally, in the last round, all Academy members — regardless of branch — may vote on the winner, provided they’ve watched all five nominated films. Nominees must be credited as casting directors (“Casting Director,” “Casting by,” or “Casting”) in a principal on-screen position, with no more than two eligible per film, except under rare circumstances approved by the branch’s executive committee.

Studio strategists, publicists and even casting professionals are wrestling with the same central question: How do you visually communicate a process that is almost entirely intangible? What makes a compelling five-minute reel when a casting director’s defining work happens in closed rooms, on Zoom calls or through instinctive choices that aren’t documented on camera?

“We’re in uncharted territory,” says one awards strategist. “Do we show audition footage? Before-and-after casting decisions? Montages of ensemble chemistry? Nobody has a playbook for this yet.”

The Academy’s rules outline the mechanics: The Casting Directors Branch will shortlist 10 films, each supplemented with a written breakdown of the casting process, photo grids of the actors and a five-minute reel composed of excerpts from the final-release version. Those reels, paired with Q&As, will be showcased in a bake-off before the branch selects five nominees.

The new award has already sparked debate over whether the category will honor pure casting craft or become a de facto ensemble award. The criteria are broad. Great casting might mean discovering fresh talent like Chase Infiniti in “One Battle After Another.” It could involve finding uncanny physical resemblance — such as Guillaume Marbeck as Jean-Luc Godard in “Nouvelle Vague” — or seeing past assumptions to imagine Jeremy Allen White as Bruce Springsteen in “Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere.” Some voters may simply gravitate toward big, star-studded ensembles like that of “Jay Kelly.”

Courtesy of The Space Program, Cannes Film Festival

The category also gives smaller films a meaningful spotlight. Casting director Rebecca Dealy’s exhaustive search for young performers for Charlie Polinger’s “The Plague,” from IFC, exemplifies the on-the-ground discovery that often defines independent filmmaking.

“I find casting even just one kid difficult, so the idea of having to find eight incredible kids was very daunting,” Dealy tells Variety. “I did massive searches all over the country, which resulted in thousands of tapes.”

On paper, the contenders for the inaugural award represent a vibrant field, with many veterans in the mix — Francine Maisler (“Sinners,” “Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere,” “Ella McCay”), Cassandra Kulukundis (“One Battle After Another”), Tiffany Little Canfield and Bernard Telsey (“Wicked: For Good”), Jennifer Venditti (“Bugonia,” “Marty Supreme”) and Nina Gold (“Jay Kelly,” “Hamnet”) among them. There is no limit to how many slots a casting director can fill.

Whether voters reward discovery or star power, the introduction of the casting Oscar is a long-overdue correction — recognizing the invisible labor that shapes cinema from the inside out.

The first official charts for achievement in casting and original score are out.

The latest Oscar predictions are below.

Nouvelle Vague

Courtesy of Cannes Film Festival

*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees below are in alphabetical order)

Best Picture
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios)
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“It Was Just an Accident” (Neon)
“Jay Kelly” (Netflix)
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)

Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
Guillermo Del Toro, “Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Ryan Coogler, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Jafar Panahi, “It Was Just an Accident” (Neon)
Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet” (Focus Features)

Actor
Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme” (A24)
Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics) ***
Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent” (Neon)

Actress
Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet” (Focus Features) ***
Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue” (Focus Features)
Chase Infiniti, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)

Supporting Actor
Benicio Del Toro, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Paul Mescal, “Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value” (Neon) ***

Supporting Actress
Elle Fanning, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Ariana Grande, “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) ***
Regina Hall, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Hailee Steinfeld, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)

Original Screenplay
“Is This Thing On?” (Searchlight Pictures) — Will Arnett, Mark Chappell and Bradley Cooper
“Jay Kelly” (Netflix) — Noah Baumbach, Emily Mortimer
“Marty Supreme” (A24) — Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
“Sentimental Value” (Neon) — Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Ryan Coogler ***

Adapted Screenplay
“Bugonia” (Focus Features) — Will Tracy
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) — Guillermo Del Toro
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Chloé Zhao ***
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Paul Thomas Anderson
“Train Dreams” (Netflix) — Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar

Casting
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) — Robin D. Cook
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Nina Gold
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Cassandra Kulukundis
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Francine Maisler ***
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) — Tiffany Little Canfield and Bernard Telsey

Animated Feature
“Arco” (Neon)
“KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix)
“Little Amélie or the Character of Rain” (GKids)
“Ne Zha 2” (A24)
“Zootopia 2” (Walt Disney Pictures) ***

Production Design
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) ***
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)

Cinematography
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Train Dreams” (Netflix)

Costume Design
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“The Testament of Ann Lee” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) ***

Film Editing
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)

Makeup and Hairstyling
“Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics)
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) ***
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“The Smashing Machine” (A24)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)

Sound
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios)
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) ***

Visual Effects
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios) ***
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
“The Fantastic Four: First Steps” (Marvel Studios)
“Superman” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)

Original Score
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) — Alexandre Desplat
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Max Richter
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Jonny Greenwood
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Ludwig Göransson ***
“The Testament of Ann Lee” (Searchlight Pictures) — Daniel Blumberg

Original Song
“Dream as One” from “Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios)
“Dear Me” from “Diane Warren: Relentless” (Greenwich Entertainment)
“Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix) ***
“I Lied to You” from “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Clothed by the Sun” from “The Testament of Ann Lee” (Searchlight Pictures)

Documentary Feature
“Come See Me in the Good Light” (Apple Original Films)
“The Perfect Neighbor” (Netflix) ***
“The Librarians” (Independent Lens)
“The Tale of Silyan” (National Geographic Documentary Films)
“2000 Meters to Andriivka” (PBS)

International Feature
“It Was Just an Accident” from France (Neon)
“The Secret Agent” from Brazil (Neon)
“Sirāt” from Spain (Neon)
“Sentimental Value” from Norway (Neon) ***
“The Voice of Hind Rajab” from Tunisia (Willa)

Top 5 projected Oscar nomination leaders (films): “One Battle After Another” (14); “Sinners” (13); “Frankenstein” (12); “Hamnet” (11); “Wicked: For Good” (9);

Top 5 projected Oscar nomination leaders (studios): Warner Bros. (30); Netflix (19); Focus Features (14); Neon (13); A24 (7)