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Motor City momentum
Detroit is riding an 11-game win streak and continues to put space between itself and the rest of the Eastern Conference. It’s early, but the Pistons have been dominant and resilient — something we’ve not been able to say about them in a very long time. Still, they’re not quite being embraced in the way the Cleveland Cavaliers were last season when they started 15-0.
People might still lump this team into the abomination of two years ago when Detroit lost 28 straight games (a single-season record) and was one of the worst NBA squads ever. But anybody paying attention last year saw a culture change under J.B. Bickerstaff. Was that enough to expect this 13-2 start? Are the Pistons for real? Can they win the East? Let’s break it and see how sustainable this is:
How are they doing this? Primarily, they’re really good defensively. They don’t mind pushing the boundaries of physicality, which you can tell because they allow the league’s third-highest free-throw rate. But offsetting that, Detroit forces the second-highest turnover rate and allows the fourth-lowest effective field-goal percentage.
The Pistons are middle of the road in 3-point volume allowed and 11th in 3-point percentage allowed. Where they shine is denying 2-pointers. They allow the fourth-fewest points in the paint (adjusted for pace) and the fourth-lowest 2-point percentage. They shut that water off real quick for their opponents.
On offense, the Pistons aren’t a good 3-point shooting team (22nd), but they score the most points in the paint, third-most points off turnovers and seventh-most fast-break points. They’re also near ninth in second-chance points, thanks to being the third-best offensive rebounding team. Basically, they are physically trying to break your will by being bullies.
After the links, we’ll examine whether this team is lucky or good. Also: Can it win the East?
The last 24
Tyrese Maxey is on a heater
🏀 Career-high! Maxey lit up the Bucks in an overtime win. He scored a career-best 54 points.
🏀 Is this difficult? The Lakers need to win the LeBron James minutes. Why isn’t this a guarantee?
🏀 Fallen kingdom. The Kings’ season keeps getting worse. Domantas Sabonis is out 3-4 weeks with a torn meniscus.
🏀 Busses fired. The Lakers just reorganized and made some changes. Joey and Jesse Buss were dramatically fired, and The Athletic got an exclusive interview with Jesse.
🏀 Good times? Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla has an, um, interesting approach to having fun. “I don’t know what it means.”
🏀 Rosy future. The Trail Blazers aren’t very good, but Damian Lillard believes that better times are on the horizon.
Stream the NBA on Fubo (try it for free!) and catch out-of-market games on League Pass.
Detroit v. Everybody
OK, let’s keep digging in on the Pistons.
Are they getting lucky or are they good? You could say that a little bit of it is luck since they missed Joel Embiid twice and Anthony Davis once in their respective showdowns with Philly and Dallas. But remember, the Pistons have been missing key players (including their top six in one game and five of them in the next) for a week or more. They’re still winning. And at some point they’ll get back Jaden Ivey — who averaged 17.6 points in nearly 30 minutes per game last season before getting hurt.
However, some of this is thanks to an easy schedule. Basketball Reference ranks them 24th in strength of schedule. CraftedNBA has them 28th. But good teams beat the teams in front of them, and they’re doing that. This team is good.
What’s the difference between this year and last? They’re about the same in terms of shot-making and turnovers. The Pistons are better on the offensive boards and better at getting to the free-throw line compared to last season. Their defense has improved greatly at preventing shots and forcing turnovers without selling out the scheme.
Ausar Thompson has looked better when healthy, but mostly this is about Duren. Maybe it’s motivation from not getting a contract extension, but he’s dramatically improved. He’s started scoring a lot more in the 3-to-10 foot range on the floor instead of being exclusively at the rim. That has changed how he operates in rolling situations and how he can make decisions as the defense collapses.
The 21-year-old Duren is also allowing just 55.1 percent on defended shots, compared to 62.3 percent last season. His offensive rebounding is also at a career high. Whether it’s a contract year or he’s taking the leap or both, Detroit has a high-impact big man.
What are their shortcomings? They’re bad at free-throw shooting (28th) and weak in 3-point shooting. Duncan Robinson and Caris LeVert have replaced Malik Beasley and Tim Hardaway Jr. just fine in that department. But this team still struggles to make shots from the outside.
Can they improve those shortcomings? Cade Cunningham and Tobias Harris are a combined 27.7 percent from deep. Cade isn’t making shots quite like he did last season, but nobody is worried about that. If you believe Ivey is the 40.9 percent outside shooter we saw last year and not the 33.9 percent shooter we saw his first two seasons, that should help things a lot.
How long can they keep this streak going? They’re at Milwaukee on Saturday and at Indiana on Monday. The Bucks won’t have Giannis Antetokounmpo, and the Pacers are duct-taping rotations together. So Detroit could easily tie the franchise record of 13 in a row. Then things get tougher. The Pistons are at Boston, home versus Orlando and at Miami for the next three. My guess is it ends somewhere in there, but they have a great chance to set the franchise record of 14 or beyond.
So, are they for real? Yes, this team is for real. We’ll see how it looks in a playoff setting. We’ll see how it looks consistently against tougher opponents. But this team is tougher and better defensively than what we saw a year ago. Banking wins at the beginning of the season is just as important as banking wins at the end. If they play defense like this and stay relatively healthy, the Pistons can take the top spot in the East. That means they can win the East.
NBA Cupdate
Group play nears dramatic conclusion
Yes, the NBA Cup has started already! Yes, the NBA Cup is still going! And no, the NBA Cup is not some gimmick. I’ve got Cup fever! I’ve got NBA Cup fever! I’ve got World Cup fever 🏴! And I don’t want my temperature to go down. OK, I might be losing it a little, but I am still all-in on the NBA Cup. We need to update you on what’s happening, as we have just four more nights of group play action (which also count as regular-season games, in case you forgot): tonight, and then Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday of next week.
Group play is getting very heated and I defy you to figure out what will happen in West Group C. Defy you, I say! (This section has an excessive amount of exclamation points.)
East Group A: Raptors 2-0 ( +23) | Cavaliers 1-1 (+22) | Hawks 1-1 (+8) | Pacers 0-1 (-20) | Wizards 0-1 (-33)
Takeaway: As we discussed Thursday, the Raptors are second in the East. They already have a win against the Cavs and Hawks. The tough part of their group play is over. They should take this group with a 4-0 record. Now it’s just about whether or not the Cavs and Hawks can do enough to be in a wild-card position.
Prediction: Raptors, as we all expected?
East Group B: Pistons 2-0 ( +23) | Magic 2-0 (+20) | Celtics 1-1 (-12) | 76ers 0-1 (-10) | Nets 0-2 (-25)
Takeaway: The Pistons’ showdown with Orlando on the final night of group play should decide this group, and it’s in Detroit. Regardless, the loser of that should be in the best position to pull the wild card if they don’t get blown out.
Prediction: Hard to go against the Pistons right now.
East Group C: Bucks 2-0 ( +16) | Bulls 1-1 (-6) | Knicks 1-1 (-2) | Heat 1-1 (+10) | Hornets 0-2 (-18)
Takeaway: With Antetokounmpo missing time because of his groin strain, this group is suddenly up in the air. The Bucks have never lost in group play. Not two years ago. Not last year. And not so far this season. They have games in New York and Miami. This will truly test their group play lore. Miami could really steal this if New York loses another game.
Prediction: The Bucks until they actually lose.
West Group A: Wolves 2-0 ( +54) | Thunder 1-0 (+31) | Suns 1-0 (+22) | Kings 0-2 (-46) | Jazz 0-2 (-62)
Takeaway: With Phoenix getting its act together, the Wolves have a very tough road to close out this group. They still play the Suns and the Thunder, so there’s no more beating up on weak opponents in the NBA Cup. OKC and Phoenix still have to play each other too.
Prediction: Who is picking against the Thunder right now?
West Group B: Lakers 2-0 ( +19) | Clippers 2-0 (+2) | Grizzlies 1-1 (+9) | Mavs 0-2 (-14) | Pelicans 0-2 (-16)
Takeaway: Since going 2-0, the Clippers have pretty much cratered. The Lakers just got LeBron back, and the rest of this group is awful. Unless the Lakers exclusively run things through Marcus Smart and Jaxson Hayes, they should be the favorites for this group.
Prediction: I’ll take the Lakers.
West Group C: Nuggets 1-1 ( +23) | Rockets 1-1 (+13) | Spurs 1-1 (+10) | Blazers 1-1 (-22) | Warriors 1-1 (-24)
Takeaway: I have absolutely no idea what could happen here. This is a group of madness. It’s going to become a five-team game of rock-paper-scissors. We’re really going to test the limits of the tiebreaker system.
Prediction: I guess the Nuggets? They have Big Honey.