At some point on Thursday night, the NHL officially finished the first quarter of its schedule. We’re not going to say “quarter pole,” because it’s a horse-racing term that almost never is used correctly.

In any case, Power Rankings HQ is marking the occasion with a simple game of “green flag, red flag.” There are (generally) real reasons for optimism for every team and, of course, real reasons for pessimism.

Also, as was the case last week, there’s pure chaos in the middle of the list.

1. Colorado Avalanche, 14-1-5

Last week: 1
Sean: 1
Dom: 1

Green flag: (Almost) everything!

In a league where 27 teams feel interchangeably mid, the Avalanche stand alone as The True Good Team. They’re an absolute wagon at five-on-five and it’s amazing that this deep into November, they’ve lost just once in regulation.

Red flag: The power play

We’re tight on bad things to say about this team because, really, there is only one: Colorado’s bafflingly bad power play. It boggles the mind that a unit with this much talent not only can’t score, but isn’t even getting chances that it bears repeating daily until it’s fixed.

2. Carolina Hurricanes, 13-5-2

Last week: 4
Sean: 2
Dom: 2

Green flag: Shayne Gostisbehere is nasty

Guess who leads the NHL with an average Game Score of 2.58. Gostisbehere didn’t get there by offense alone, either — his actual and expected goal shares are both well into the 70s, and he has the lowest expected goals against/per 60 in the league among defensemen.

Red flag: The end of Selke Staal?

Since 2017-18, the Hurricanes have been outscored with Staal on the ice just once. They’re in a 10-9 deficit there at the moment, and his expected goal share (51.5) would be his worst since 2020-21.

3. Dallas Stars, 13-5-3

Last week: 2
Sean: 4
Dom: 3

Green flag: Miro Heiskanen, Norris finalist?

It’s almost strange that a player so good and so respected has never come all that close to winning the Norris. If he keeps this up, that’ll change. He’s providing his typically high-end play in monster minutes, including 28:13 on Thursday, and his production is up: He’s fifth among defensemen with 19 points, and his 2.13 points/60 is nearly a full point above last season.

Red flag: Thomas Harley

A week-to-week injury is never good news, but it might serve as some sort of explanation for Harley’s play in his first 18 games: Dallas was outscored 15-9 with him on the ice, and his expected goal share was about 42 percent.

4. Anaheim Ducks, 13-7-1

Last week: 5
Sean: 3
Dom: 4

Green flag: Jacob Trouba being worth every penny

We don’t know what’s gotten into Trouba, but he continues to be one of the brightest spots on Anaheim’s blue line. A late-career renaissance like this is a nice bonus for a team on the rise.

Red flag: Pavel Mintyukov not progressing

Two straight healthy scratches and reports about trade demands if he doesn’t play has put Mintyukov’s name top of mind for the week. By Net Rating, his minus-2.2 is last among Ducks defensemen and one of the worst in the league. After a decent rookie season, it’s been disappointing to not see him take the leap.

5. New Jersey Devils, 13-6-1

Last week: 3
Sean: 5
Dom: 6

Green flag: Jake Allen

Historically, Allen is at his best when he’s pushing the starter. As soon as he’s anointed the starter, everything goes awry. For now, the starter is still Jacob Markstrom, and so that means the Devils are getting peak Allen, whose .917 is third among goalies that have played 10 or more games.

Red flag: Jacob Markstrom

Aside from all the injuries, New Jersey’s biggest issue right now is that the starter it just signed to an extension doesn’t look like a starter anymore. Thank god for Allen or this team would not be so comfy near the top of the East.

6. Vegas Golden Knights, 10-4-6

Last week: 9
Sean: 6
Dom: 5

Green flag: Shea Theodore doing his best Miro Heiskanen impression

He may not be getting as many points as he usually does, but the smooth-skating Theodore has been cooking defensively. He’s got some eye-opening defensive numbers in tough minutes.

Red flag: The bottom six is getting crushed

One of the things we loved about Vegas going into the season was that they added a superstar to an already deep forward group. Mitch Marner has held up his end with the team’s top six stars, but the rest of the lineup is having a tough time. Without Jack Eichel or Tomas Hertl on the ice this year, Vegas is getting outscored 18-9 with a 44 percent xG.

7. Winnipeg Jets, 12-7-0

Last week: 11
Sean: 7
Dom: 8

Green flag: The blue line getting healthy

A lot of people were bemoaning Winnipeg’s underlying numbers to start the season, but since Dylan Samberg returned, the Jets are right at 50 percent xG. More importantly, their usually strong defensive numbers are back to normal.

Red flag: The third pair

What Samberg’s lengthy absence exposed is just how bad Winnipeg’s third pair is. Logan Stanley, Luke Schenn, Haydn Fleury, Colin Miller are a tough combination of bad options.

8. Tampa Bay Lightning, 11-7-2

Last week: 10
Sean: 10
Dom: 7

Green flag: Surviving injuries on defense

We’re still not sure who Charle-Edouard D’astous is, but he’s currently playing top four minutes with Erik Cernak while Darren Raddysh lines up next to J.J. Moser. It’s rough without Victor Hedman and Ryan McDonagh, but the Lightning are finding ways to manage and that bodes well for when they do get healthy.

Red flag: They keep galaxy-braining the power play

Enough is enough, just put Brandon Hagel on PP1. Oliver Bjorkstrand has one goal in 19 games, the top unit is worse with him on it and the man advantage has been a major weak spot. Don’t overthink it, Coop! Stop trying to make Bjorkstrand happen, it’s not going to happen!

9. New York Islanders, 12-7-2

Last week: 22
Sean: 8
Dom: 10

Green flag: Bo Horvat has been one of the NHL’s best players

Horvat isn’t just tied for second in the league in goals, with 14 — he’s carrying around an average Game Score of 1.7, comfortably in the top 10, and a Net Rating higher than Connor McDavid and Macklin Celebrini, among many others. That’ll keep him in the Olympic discussion.

Red flag: Alex Romanov has been one of the NHL’s worst players

Down at the absolute bottom of the Net Rating list is Romanov, with a minus-6.6. Mix that in with the upper-body injury he sustained when Mikko Rantanen drove him into the net, and it’s tough not to feel bad for the guy.

10. Florida Panthers, 11-8-1

Last week: 13
Sean: 11
Dom: 9

Green flag: Brad Marchand is still elite

Marchand’s last season in Boston was tougher than usual to watch at times and he looked a step behind at 4 Nations. Forgive anyone who thought the end was near because Marchand certainly made it seem that way.

Then the playoffs happened and Marchand looked like his old self again, completely rejuvenated. And that doesn’t look like it was a one-off either. With 13 goals and 23 points in 18 games, Marchand has been Florida’s top offensive catalyst.

Red flag: Sergei Bobrovsky

Life would be a lot easier for the Barkov-less and Tkachuk-less Panthers if their franchise goalie could carry the load for a little bit. Sergei Bobrovsky was sporting an .881 and a bottom 10 spot in GSAx going into Thursday’s game where he pitched a shutout. More of that, please.

11. Los Angeles Kings, 10-6-5

Last week: 7
Sean: 9
Dom: 12

Green flag: Succession

What we needed to see this season: Quinton Byfield and Brandt Clarke showing progression toward franchise status.

What we’re getting: Exactly that. Byfield and Clarke have arguably been two of the Kings’ most impactful players in the first quarter.

Red flag: Shorthanded goals against

The Kings are one of the rare teams that use a 5F power play and they’re seeing the risks of that through the first 20 games with 2.1 shorthanded goals against per 60 — third worst in the league. The worst part is they’re not even seeing the offensive benefit and currently rank 23rd in power-play goals per 60.

12. Washington Capitals, 11-8-2

Last week: 24
Sean: 12
Dom: 11

Green flag: They’re one of the best five-on-five teams in the league

Only the Avs have outscored opponents more dramatically at five-on-five than the Caps (50-30). Their expected goal share is top five, as well.

Red flag: They have some of the worst combined special teams in the league

Unfortunately for Washington, the entire game is not played at five-on-five. Even after a two-goal night on Thursday, their power play is near the bottom of the league in actual and expected goals per 60. Their penalty kill is, too.

13. Ottawa Senators, 10-6-4

Last week: 8
Sean: 15
Dom: 13

Green flag: Team defense

No team in the league allows fewer expected goals at five-on-five than Ottawa (2.17). Seven individual players are sub-2.00, including Jake Sanderson and Shane Pinto.

Red flag: Linus Ullmark

In terms of actual goals against, though, Ottawa is all the way down at 19th (2.53). Blame their .893 team save percentage for that. Basically, blame Ullmark, who’s allowed nearly five goals more than expected at five-on-five and 7.5 overall.

14. Detroit Red Wings, 12-8-1

Last week: 15
Sean: 14
Dom: 14

Green flag: The Core Four ™

Going into Thursday’s games, Detroit’s Core Four ™ of Dylan Larkin, Lucas Raymond, Alex DeBrincat and Moritz Seider carried a combined plus-20 Net Rating. All four land in the league’s top 40. Hooray!

Red flag: The Other 18 ™

The rest of the skaters combine for a minus-17 Net Rating. Boo! That’s the second-largest gap in the league behind only Edmonton.

15. Pittsburgh Penguins, 10-5-4

Last week: 16
Sean: 13
Dom: 17

Green flag: Erik Karlsson has learned how to defend

Hands up if you expected Karlsson to be carrying a higher Defensive Rating (plus-1.4) than Ryan McDonagh and Travis Sanheim. Pittsburgh has outscored opponents 14-9 with him on the ice.

Red flag: Penalty differential

No team has spent less time on the power play, which has undermined a unit that is scoring more actual goals per 60 (13.0) and generating more expected (12.1) than anybody in the league.

16. Utah Mammoth, 10-8-3

Last week: 6
Sean: 17
Dom: 15

Green flag: Their penalty kill

Only six teams allow fewer shorthanded goals than the Mammoth (5.62 per 60), and just one has been better at suppressing quality chances (6.9 expected goals per 60).

Red flag: Mediocrity from Mikhail Sergachev

If you’re optimistic about the Mammoth, some of that hinges on Sergachev playing like a No. 1 defenseman — and that hasn’t been the case so far. Utah is getting outscored 18-13 with him on the ice at five-on-five, and his expected goal share isn’t much better.

17. Philadelphia Flyers, 10-6-3

Last week: 17
Sean: 18
Dom: 16

Green flag: Christian Dvorak has worked out nicely

In terms of five-on-five points-per-60, Christian Dvorak’s career high is 1.97 back in 2021-22. He’s at 2.46 for the year so far. That’s a great start and some surprisingly nice bang-for-their-buck from the Flyers.

Red flag: Matvei Michkov has been Tocchet’d

Clayton Keller and Elias Pettersson, meet Matvei Michkov.

18. Chicago Blackhawks, 10-6-4

Last week: 23
Sean: 16
Dom: 21

Green flag: Spencer Knight — Olympian

Get this guy to Milan, he’s earned it. His 19.7 goals saved above expected is downright Hellebuyckian

Red flag: The ol’ 105 PDO

No one wants to be the fun police for a hockey team emerging from the abyss. If someone tries to “Well, actually” you that the version of Connor Bedard scoring at a 125-point pace is actually bad, pay them no mind.

But, if the bar has been raised toward discussing Chicago as an actual playoff threat this season, the team’s sky-high PDO is the unfortunate elephant in the room. The Blackhawks have banked enough points early to make some noise, but if they want staying power, they’ll need to start consistently controlling play to a better degree. The Bedard-Knight connection should get them a better goal differential than expected — just not to the current degree.

19. Seattle Kraken, 10-5-5

Last week: 19
Sean: 20
Dom: 19

Green flag: Matt Murray is back

It’s been a long road back to relevancy for Matt Murray, who played just two games last season, but his first five for the Kraken have felt revelatory. He looks like his old self again with a .924 save percentage and 5.6 goals saved. If the Kraken play their cards right, they might be able to get a first-round pick out of Edmonton.

Red flag: Worst xG in the league

No one really wants to believe in the Kraken with their whole chest, even if Seattle is currently third in the Pacific based on points percentage. No team gets out-chanced more than the Kraken and that’s the reddest of all red flags on the list. Don’t buy their record.

20. Minnesota Wild, 10-7-4

Last week: 26
Sean: 19
Dom: 20

Green flag: Jesper Wallstedt

Wallstedt just went nearly three hours’ worth of game time without allowing a goal, pushing his save percentage up to .926 and GSAx up to nearly four. That’s the sort of play that made Wallstedt a top prospect before a messy 2024-25 AHL season.

Red flag: They already paid Filip Gustavsson

There’s nothing wrong with having multiple options in net, and Gustavsson has been better than his .897 save percentage indicates, but that five-year, $34 million contract he signed all the way back in October might come back to haunt Minnesota.

21. Columbus Blue Jackets, 11-8-2

Last week: 21
Sean: 21
Dom: 19

Green flag: Zach Werenski looks Norris-calibre again

In case you were on the fence about Werenski’s place in the elite defenseman hierarchy, he’s putting on another Norris-worthy season with the Blue Jackets. Werenski probably won’t catch Cale Makar, but he’s playing big minutes, scoring a bunch and absolutely tilting the ice at five-on-five. His impact on xG and goals is among the league’s very best.

Red flag: The regression boys

Last season, Kent Johnson’s on-ice shooting percentage of 13.2 percent was fourth highest in the league. Sean Monahan’s 12.0 percent was 17th. Both have struggled to score out of the gate and not getting those same bounces is a big reason why. Johnson, in particular, ranks last on the Blue Jackets at 6.9 percent.

22. Montreal Canadiens, 10-7-3

Last week: 12
Sean: 22
Dom: 22

Green flag: Overtime magic

The Canadiens have played eight overtime games this season, won five and taken two more to the shootout. Given the state of the Eastern Conference, an extra point here or there could be the difference between a wild-card spot and a lottery slot.

Red flag: Sam Montembeault’s timing

Goaltender volatility can work against a team in both directions; back in 2022-23, Montembeault was too good, racking up 17 GSAx in a tank season for the Canadiens and wrecking their chances at drafting Connor Bedard. Now, after two more solid seasons and with his team fully in “win now” mode, Montembeault has been brutal (.852 save percentage, minus-8.4 GSAx)

23. San Jose Sharks, 10-8-3

Last week: 25
Sean: 25
Dom: 23

Green flag: Yaroslav Askarov is becoming elite

After a very weak start to the season, Askarov has put on a show in November. Going into Thursday, he had six straight games saving more goals than expected, culminating in 13.9 goals saved and a .959 save percentage. That’s stupid good.

Red flag: The John Klingberg and Nick Leddy experience

One reason Askarov has saved so many goals above expected is that the Sharks allow so many expected goals against. Not to point fingers, but maybe adding two veterans who have a history of doing exactly that was not the best move.

24. Edmonton Oilers, 9-9-5

Last week: 18
Sean: 25
Dom: 24

Green flag: They still have two MVPs

A ho-hum start for Edmonton’s big guns still means that one (Connor McDavid) is 10th among forwards in Net Rating and the other (Leon Draisaitl) is 16th.

Red flag: They still don’t have much else

Overall, the Oilers are bottom 10 in expected and actual goals at 5-on-5. A poor supporting cast at forward? Who could’ve seen this coming? Jack Roslovic is third on the team in goals, and he signed about 15 minutes before the season began.

25. New York Rangers, 10-10-2

Last week: 14
Sean: 24
Dom: 26

Green flag: Their ability to defend

No team allows fewer goals at five-on-five than the Rangers (1.77 per 60). They’re tied for second-best in expected goals against, too (2.25 per 60). How is this team 26th in points percentage?

Red flag: Their ability to score

That’s how. They’re middle-of-the-pack in expected goals percentage and fifth from the bottom in goals per 60. J.T. Miller, phantom backcheck aside, embodies their issues — he’s been solid defensively but has generated next to nothing with the puck.

26. Toronto Maple Leafs, 9-9-3

Last week: 29
Sean: 26
Dom: 25

Green flag: The big bad Leafs have the league’s best hit differential

For all the people who have demanded the Leafs get more truculence, belligerence and pugnacity, it’s time to soak up this moment: You did it! No team wins the hit battle every night better than the Leafs who have delivered 142 more hits than they’ve taken this year. Congratulations!

Red flag: How they spent Mitch Marner’s $11 million of cap space

For all the people who have said that “cap space” was a better asset than Marner’s last contract, well, you’re getting an expensive lesson as to why that was always a fantasy. The Leafs are paying Matias Maccelli, Nicolas Roy, Dakota Joshua and Scott Laughton a combined total of $11.2 million this year. And it’s going great!

27. Boston Bruins, 12-10-0

Last week: 20
Sean: 27
Dom: 27

Green flag: Jeremy Swayman is back

After a lost season, Swayman has reverted to form. He’s fifth in the league with 12.5 goals saved above expected and has generally looked like the guy Boston thought they were signing to a long-term, big-money deal.

Red flag: Marat Khusnutdinov is their 1C

Injuries to Elias Lindholm and Casey Mittelstadt have wreaked havoc on Boston’s shaky-on-a-good-day center depth chart. That means Khusnutdinov — who has 22 points in 108 NHL games — is centering David Pastrnak and Morgan Geekie. He’s been OK thus far, but yikes.

28. Vancouver Canucks, 9-11-2

Last week: 28
Sean: 28
Dom: 28

Green flag: Elias Pettersson

We’re going to say this gently: Pettersson, with 20 points in 22 games, is showing some positive signs. With three more five-on-five goals, he’ll tie his total from last season. Faint praise, perhaps, but it counts for something. Harman Dayal has more on the topic.

Red flag: Worst expected goals allowed in the league

Vancouver is allowing 3.33 expected goals against per 60, nearly a full goal worse than last season. The Tyler Myers-Marcus Petterson pair (38 percent expected goal share, 3.57 xGA per 60) has a lot to do with that.

29. St. Louis Blues, 6-9-6

Last week: 27
Sean: 30
Dom: 29

Green flag: They’re almost last in the West

The Blues have the rest of the league right where they want them!

Red flag: Canadian superstar goaltender Jordan Binnington

Does Canada have a goaltending problem or does Canada have an identifying good goaltending problem? Anyways, here’s Jordan “last in GSAx” Binnington being described as a lock for Team Canada — he’s earned it!

30. Calgary Flames, 6-13-3

Last week: 32
Sean: 29
Dom: 30

Green flag: They’re somehow an OK five-on-five team

The Flames are seventh in the league in expected goal share (53.7). That obviously hasn’t led to much, thanks to a terminal lack of finishing talent and mediocre goaltending, but … it counts for something.

Red flag: Matt Coronato is struggling after signing a big deal

Coronato has been good in November — he’s got a team-leading eight points and 39 shots in that stretch — but he’s still got plenty of ground to make up, especially after signing a seven-year deal with a $6.5 million cap hit over the summer.

31. Buffalo Sabres, 7-9-4

Last week: 30
Sean: 31
Dom: 31

Green flag: Tage Thompson looks better

After scoring six goals in his first 16 games, Thompson has found the net in four straight, though one came in a catastrophic loss to the Flames. If the Sabres stop their season from going off the rails, they’ll need Thompson to keep that up.

Red flag: Owen Power has not taken any meaningful steps

In fact, he might have regressed. Power is producing less (1.05 points per 60, down from 1.43) and putting up worse defensive results — the Sabres have been outscored 16-10 with him on the ice. Stagnation from an important young player in Buffalo? Shocking.

32. Nashville Predators, 6-10-4

Last week: 31
Sean: 32
Dom: 32

Green flag: Roman Josi returned to practice on Thursday

It’s hard to find many green flags in Nashville these days, so I guess we have to go to the injury report. Roman Josi might be back soon, which could move the Predators up from their current 66-point pace to a 75-point pace.

Red flag: Everyone Barry Trotz has thrown big money at over the last two years

Over the last two years, Trotz has given out $192 million in contracts to Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault, Brady Skjei, Nicolas Hague and Juuse Saros. Let’s check in!

Stamkos has five points in 20 games. Marchessault has six points in 17 games. Skjei is getting outscored 17-11 with the worst xG on the team. Hague is getting outscored 13-6 with the second-worst xG on the team. Saros is 35th in GSAx while the star prospect they traded to make room to pay for his 30s is seventh.

Not great!