Analyzing Detroit Lions’ 16-9 loss to Philadelphia Eagles
Free Press sports writers Jeff Seidel and Shawn Windsor break down the Detroit Lions’ 16-9 loss to the Eagles on Sunday, Nov. 16.
Fast facts
Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET; Sunday, Nov. 23; Ford Field, Detroit.
TV: Fox.
Radio: WXYT-FM (97.1).
Line: Lions by 10½.
The coaches: Lions – Dan Campbell (50-39-1 overall, 45-32-1 with Lions); Giants – Mike Kafka (interim, 0-1 overall).
Last meeting: Nov. 20, 2022, Lions won 31-18.
Key matchupsBrian Burns vs Lions OTs
Since 1982 (when sacks became an official NFL stat), only 13 players have recorded at least 20 sacks in a season. New York Giants edge rusher Brian Burns is on pace to reach that mark, with 13 sacks on the season (second-most in the NFL) – and he won’t be the only Giants pass rusher the Lions will have to account for.
Former Penn State standout Abdul Carter, the No. 3 overall pick in the draft, is tied for second on the team with nine quarterback hits but has only been credited with half a sack so far this season. He’ll be itching to get on the board against a Lions offensive line that has shown some struggles over the past three games.
The responsibility to contain the Giants’ front-line pressure will fall to the usual suspects: offensive tackles Taylor Decker and Penei Sewell, who both played against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 11 despite injury questions. Detroit’s offensive line has been an understandable cause for concern, but both big men have what it takes to limit New York’s pass rush, even if the interior offensive line still has some work to do.
Dan Campbell vs fourth downs
Was Lions coach Dan Campbell a genius for taking over the play-calling in Detroit’s 44-22 drubbing of the Washington Commanders in Week 10? Or did that game not count because of an imploding Commanders’ defense?
Similarly, should Campbell be given a pass for his team’s offensive no-show against the Eagles? Or should fans give him the same amount of criticism as offensive coordinator John Morton got for the Lions’ performance against the Minnesota Vikings?
Whatever the reason, Campbell-as-play-caller won’t have any room for excuses against the Giants. The Lions are at home, have nearly all their best playmakers available and are facing a Giants defense that is fourth-worst in the NFL in points allowed per game (27.3) and yards allowed per game (375.1). This should be a relatively easy assignment for any person calling plays for the Lions.
One key marker of Campbell’s play-calling abilities should appear in fourth-down opportunities. The Lions need to do better on fourth down than the 0-for-5 showing they put up against the Eagles, and Campbell knows that. Campbell should get tons of credit for the Lions succeeding on fourth down as often as they do, but now that he calls the plays he should also get the blame when the boldness leads to turnovers.
Because it only works when it works, you know?
Scouting reportLions offense vs. Giants defense
The Lions will be without tight end Sam LaPorta likely for the rest of the season as the veteran recovers from a back injury. His absence really showed for Detroit against the Eagles, as Lions quarterback Jared Goff didn’t have his safety valve to throw to. (Not to mention the Lions’ struggles containing Philadelphia’s pass rush without LaPorta in to help block.)
But thankfully for the Lions, this Giants defense is not even close to the quality of Philadelphia’s.
Despite having a quality front seven that features NFC sack leader Brian Burns and No. 3 overall pick Abdul Carter, the Giants give up nearly 150 rushing yards per game, third-worst in the NFL. That’ll open up big opportunities for running backs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs should Burns, Carter and the rest of the Giants’ front line focus a little too much on trying to sack Goff.
Oh, and Goff? He’ll be back at home where he’s most comfortable, and he still has Amon-Ra St. Brown and an unlocked Jameson Williams to throw to. Expect the Lions to try to get their running game back in order after putting up only 74 rushing yards against the Eagles last week, and expect Goff to try to reconnect with St. Brown after the Pennsylvania wind knocked them offline.
Lions defense vs. Giants offense
Pop quiz! Which unit is ranked higher: The Lions’ defense in yards allowed per game or the Lions’ offense in yards gained per game?
Trick question! – both units were ranked No. 5 in the NFL entering Week 12, with the offense putting up 366.9 yards per game and the defense allowing 291.8. But these numbers shouldn’t be treated equally.
For one, the Lions’ offense has been mostly healthy all season, with only LaPorta and starting guard Christian Mahogany missing significant time. Meanwhile, the secondary has been somewhat of a MASH unit but still continues to put up excellent production with backups such as Rock Ya-Sin and Avonte Maddox proving their worth while starters Kerby Joseph, Terrion Arnold and D.J. Reed have been out.
Also, they won’t have to handle rookie sensation Jaxson Dart, who missed last week’s game against the Green Bay Packers and has been ruled out for Sunday’s game. In his place will be veteran Jameis Winston, a true slinger who could light up the scoresheet, but is also equally likely to offer multiple chances for interceptions.
If the Lions secondary can keep the Giants’ wide receivers covered – an easier task with star wideout Malik Nabers out for the season – expect the Lions’ front seven to pounce on Winston.
Lions vs Giants prediction, pick
Let’s not overhype this game by calling it “must-win” or “can’t-lose” (even if those terms are not entirely inaccurate). Let’s instead focus on the basics: the Lions have one of the most talented rosters in football highly motivated for a win, while the Giants have the NFC’s worst record and a rookie quarterback returning from a brain injury. This is not an even matchup.
If you’re worried about where the Lions have been headed the last three weeks, you can put your faith in a healthy offense, a defense that refuses to give ground despite injuries and Dan Campbell keeping this team as prepared as any other in the league. And remember – this Lions team does not lose two games in a row. The pick: Lions 31, Giants 17.
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You can reach Christian at cromo@freepress.com