Numbers For The Morning After, with Chris Cerullo
📸 : RMNB

The Washington Capitals saw their three-game winning streak end on Saturday night. The Tampa Bay Lightning scored five goals on just 16 shots, but it wasn’t just poor goaltending that delivered a big fat L to the Caps.

Instead, everything we’ve been complaining about since the season started is what we’ll still be complaining about in this post. Woooooo, so fun, yeah, wooo, great. I love that.

  • We’ll start with the five-on-five play, where the Capitals were again brilliant. They finished up 57-26 in shot attempts, 27-10 in shots, 30-18 in scoring chances, 15-6 in high-danger chances, and 3.21-1.3 in expected goals. I would say that when you play like that, you should expect to win the game 75-80 percent of the time. Haha, so fun and so cool that they did not win. I want to punch a hole in a wall.
  • The power play. Again. 0-for-6, including a failure on an extended 5-on-3 advantage. There’s that old adage that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over, expecting a different outcome. I don’t think simple personnel changes are the answer. The rot is within whatever “system” the first unit is specifically implementing. It’s just so bad, y’all. You don’t need me to tell you that, though.
  • Oh, and the penalty kill. They’ve now given up at least one goal in six straight games. Isn’t that lovely? Fourth-worst penalty kill in the league to go with their sixth-worst power play. Brutal. What’s the estimate at now on how many standings points special teams has cost them this season? Are we at double digits yet? Probably.
  • The fourth line was absolutely brilliant and deserved more than the one goal that they scored. With Hendrix Lapierre on the ice at five-on-five, the Capitals posted positive differentials in shot attempts (+13), shots on goal (+8), scoring chances (+8), and high-danger chances (+2). They only allowed one Lightning scoring chance and did not give up a high-danger chance.
  • Ethen Frank scored the aforementioned goal, giving him three goals and five total points in his last two games. He has eight points (3g, 5a) in 11 games this season. Obviously, a very small sample size, but that’s a 60-point pace over a full 82-game schedule. Frank keeping that up is improbable, but you have to respect how he’s leveled up his game.
  • Logan Thompson definitely didn’t help matters, giving up four goals on just six shots faced. According to MoneyPuck, Thompson gave up 2.78 more goals than expected. If you need a reminder, the Capitals lost by two goals. He doesn’t need to be Vezina level every night, but he can’t do that.

📊

This story would not be possible without

Please consider joining us in supporting them.