The first seven weeks of this NHL season have had a little bit of everything.
Perennial contenders crashing. Surprising teams on the upswing. Breakthrough performances from fresh-faced young stars. Frequent reminders that players like Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Brad Marchand and John Tavares aren’t ready to fade into the sunset just yet.
About the only thing we haven’t seen is a trade of any consequence. Stay tuned for that.
It’s little wonder readers answered the call for mailbag questions with a variety of compelling topics. You asked about the hot seat in Toronto, when the trade market is going to pick up, who the Montreal Canadiens should target for help down the middle, why top prospect Gavin McKenna has a growing list of doubters, what’s going on with The Athletic jinx in Utah and much more.
As always, thank you for taking the time to read, engage and respond.
Let’s go!
(Note: Some questions are edited lightly for length and clarity.)
How hot is the seat Brad Treliving is sitting in? Trading picks when the cupboard was already bare for Matias Maccelli and Dakota Joshua seems like a huge misstep. The depth he wanted to replace Marner with is not working. With the cap going up, what are the chances he moves those two and Max Domi to free up space for a free agent? And is there even any value in these guys to other teams? — Scott G.
The Leafs started this season talking about a Stanley Cup pursuit and currently find themselves in the Eastern Conference basement. The seat couldn’t possibly get any hotter. While Treliving has vowed that he can’t trade himself out of this predicament, it hasn’t kept the general manager from gauging the market on his players to see if some kind of shakeup is out there.
He has some limitations in the form of no-trade and no-movement clauses in a number of contracts, plus the fact he’s not currently trying to deal from a position of strength. Still, very little can be ruled out as a possibility at this point. The Leafs aren’t at a point where they’re shopping superstars, but every player below that tier on the roster could be considered available if the right trade came along.
Is there any world where Auston Matthews doesn’t go to the Olympics, whether it be his choice or heavily influenced by the Leafs to ensure he’s healthy? — Stuart M.
No, we do not live in that world. It can’t be overstated how important getting back to the Olympics was for NHL players. As a result, I don’t think you’d find anyone willingly taking a pass on a trip to Milan in February – whether it’s Matthews or any other player currently sidelined from his NHL team with an injury.
Remember that the list of those currently in that situation includes Mark Stone, Connor Hellebuyck, Jack Hughes, Matthew Tkachuk, Brady Tkachuk and Victor Hedman.
How would you compare the amount of trade chatter behind the scenes this year to previous years? Are you anticipating any impact on the deadline trade market due to how many teams are either not sellers or potentially buyers? — Buhlahkay V.
The chatter is definitely picking up, even if we haven’t really seen a trade of any consequence since Lukas Reichel was dealt to the Vancouver Canucks from the Chicago Blackhawks on Oct. 25.
Unfortunately, talk doesn’t always produce action. I’ve sensed a fair amount of frustration among executives at how difficult it’s been to make moves, with the reasons provided ranging from the amount of trade protection currently included in player contracts (36 percent of the league, according to PuckPedia) to how mushy the standings are due to all the loser points being handed out.
As for what to expect ahead of the March 6 trade deadline, I’ve encountered multiple GMs who expect the number of trades to be greatly reduced from years gone by because of the creation of a playoff salary cap and the limitations placed on salary retention in the new collective bargaining agreement.
The salary cap is going up. Many top UFAs are already signed. Some teams have a lot of favorable deals (like the Panthers) and might not have to spend to the cap. The players get 50 percent of revenue. In the past, there was escrow in case all of the player salaries added up to an amount that exceeded 50 percent of revenue. What system is in place if all the players’ contracts don’t add up to 50 percent? — Dale H.
This is a timely question, Dale, because I was told recently that early revenue projections for the 2025-26 season have players on pace to receive more money than their individual contracts call for. Put another way: Teams are currently on pace to bring in more than 50 percent of the league’s total revenue, which would see players paid a top-up amount to even things out.
This has always been possible, but it hasn’t happened often since the NHL instituted a salary cap in 2005. As you pointed out, the players have usually paid to make up the difference through escrow. Depending on where revenues land through June 2026, a player in line to make $10 million could theoretically end up making a couple hundred thousand dollars more than that amount for his work.
What center should the Habs swing for the fences for? — Rick A.
The Sidney Crosby trade conjecture has quieted down, given how well the start of the season has gone for the Pittsburgh Penguins, but that’s the player I think Montreal should go all-in for if the Canadiens ever get a chance to land him. There’s absolutely no guarantee Crosby opens his mind to the possibility, but he’d be an ideal fit. The Habs also have the assets needed to make a trade work if the opportunity ever comes their way.
Are people judging Gavin McKenna’s start at Penn State too harshly? — Alexander H.
In a word: Yes. There tends not to be enough nuance to discussions like this one. In my view, it’s possible for two things at once to be true: McKenna can be at times struggling after jumping to the NCAA as a 17-year-old, and he can also still be the best 2007-born hockey player on the planet. He’s still producing more than a point per game for Penn State, after all.
The smart money is on McKenna actually benefiting from the increased level of competition he’s faced in his draft-eligible season and ending up ahead overall for having gone through this experience.
A little off to the side: I just learned there is such a thing as a “commentator information system” that provides on-ice information to the folks who call the games. What exactly is it? — John G.
The commentators who broadcast NHL games have access in real time to some of the data scraped from chip technology placed in pucks and sweaters: information like how hard a particular shot went or how long a player’s shift has lasted, with particular emphasis on instances where players get trapped out there for an extended period of time.
The commentators can also see how much total distance a player has covered in the game, although you rarely hear that information shared on broadcasts.
“The Mammoth have arrived as an NHL playoff contender ahead of schedule, with room left to grow.” Since The Athletic posted that headline to your article, Utah has lost six of seven … what’s going on here? — Daryl W.
This phenomenon can best be explained by The Athletic jinx, which is invoked whenever we write something positive about a team or player. I kid, I kid. What happened with the Mammoth is they endured a tough road trip through Eastern Canada after my article appeared Nov. 6, and the goals have dried up in a major way ever since.
It’s important to note, though, that Utah continues to hold down a wild-card spot in the Western Conference, and the main tenets of that article I still believe to be true: they’ve successfully executed a patient rebuild, they’re in prime position to take yet another step forward during their second season since being relocated from Arizona, and they’re poised to be a team to reckon with over the next number of years.
Which down-and-out team has the brightest future: Nashville, Calgary or Buffalo? — Matt J.
This question requires a fair bit of guesswork since the rebuild hasn’t formally started in any of those cities. Looking at the rosters, I think Nashville has the most pieces that can be swapped out for meaningful futures. Now, will the Predators bite the bullet and actually embrace the teardown?
And will they do that in Calgary with a reluctant owner and a new building set to open?
Can the Sabres even contemplate another reset?
Still TBD, across the board.
Do you think Kyle Dubas offers Malkin a one-year deal during their talks over the Olympic break? Love what Ben Kindel is doing this year, and I think he could maybe be the second-line center next year, but if an injury happens or Kindel doesn’t take that step forward, you are looking at a very thin center depth. — Will S.
Dubas has been consistent about taking care of the franchise legends he inherited in Pittsburgh. As a result, I would expect him to leave any decisions about the future almost entirely in the player’s hands.
The biggest question is whether Malkin wants to continue his NHL career beyond this season. If he does, there will be a future for him with the Penguins. We’ll probably find out one way or another once the sides sit down together in February.
Wonky contract question: Hypothetically, if the Vancouver Canucks traded Thatcher Demko and retained half of his deal, would the retention count for only this year at his $5 million average annual value, or would it carry through the entirety of his next deal since he re-signed already? — Noah P.
You’ve highlighted an interesting case because there’s no precedent for this kind of trade and no formal rule covering it in the collective bargaining agreement. However, it’s my understanding that the NHL has previously told teams that their interpretation of a situation like this would be that the retention percentage would apply across the current contract and the extension.
So if the Canucks ever traded Demko, they’d have to consider the impact this season plus the following three years on a contract carrying an $8.5 million cap hit annually.
A Thatcher Demko trade would be complicated given his already-signed extension. (Derek Cain / Getty Images)
What kind of ceiling is possible for Macklin Celebrini, Connor Bedard, Leo Carlsson and Matthew Schaefer? Like, is “all-time great” or “face of the league” in play? — Timothy L.
Face of the league, for sure. To me, that’s a player that captivates attention over a meaningful period of time and becomes a focal point for discussion across the sport. These guys all have the ability to achieve that level of fame and are already taking a step in that direction this season.
I’m a little less sure any of them will go down as all-time greats because there are so few spots available on Mount Rushmore. Not saying it’s impossible, but it’s also too soon to say it’s likely in any of their individual cases.