The gradual weakening of employment conditions is creating a largely overlooked crisis for America’s workers, despite recent data indicating the labor market may be on slightly stronger footing than in Summer, one economist has warned. 

“Unemployment has been rising ‘a tenth of a point here, a tenth of a point there,’” Justin Wolfers, professor of economics at the University of Michigan, posted to X on Wednesday. “That feels small month to month, but as it has added up month over month, we’ve silently shifted from a very tight market toward a noticeably weaker one.

“Slow drips still fill the bucket.”

Why It Matters

Hiring has remained sluggish in 2025 and job cuts—seen by some as the “firewall” against a recession—have begun to rise in recent months, driven in part by AI adoption as well as broader economic headwinds. These conditions have exacerbated many of the financial anxieties harbored by Americans, who are battling both elevated inflation and record-high debts, with surveys revealing plummeting confidence about both their present and future economic prospects.

What To Know

The Labor Department’s most recent jobs report, released last week after several weeks of delays, came in hotter than expected. The economy adding 119,000 jobs in September, more than doubling consensus forecasts of a 50,000 gain.

“This strong report is more proof that President Trump’s pro-growth, America First agenda is already making great progress, and it will continue to deliver positive results for American families and businesses,” said White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt.

However, economists like Wolfers were careful not to interpret the particularly backward-looking report as a sign that the labor market had recovered from its summer woes, noting that unemployment ticked up to a four-year high of 4.4 percent and that estimates for the previous two months were revised down by a total of 33,000 jobs.

“Unemployment is and has been rising in the United States,” Wolfers said during an appearance on MSNBC’s The Weekend Primetime following the release. “It’s risen slowly enough that it hasn’t attracted much attention—a tenth of a point here, a tenth of a point there—very soon though you’re talking about very big changes in people realities.”

And more recent data indicates that employment conditions remained weak in October and November.

In a preliminary estimate, payroll processing firm ADP said that private employers in the U.S. eliminated an average of 13,500 jobs per week for the four weeks which ended November 8.

Meanwhile, the Conference Board, in its consumer confidence reading for this month, found that Americans are expressing “reduced confidence across jobs, incomes, and financial situations.” Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at research organization, said that expectations of labor market conditions into mid-2026 remained “decidedly negative” in November.

What People Are Saying

Economist Justin Wolfers told MSNBC: “Unemployment right now is at a four-year high—really worth thinking about that—and except for the pandemic it would be an eight- or nine-year high.”

Mark Hamrick, a senior economist at Bankrate, told Newsweek following the latest jobs report: “Word that payroll growth was stronger than expected in September helps to quell recession fears. Even so, there are less than comforting signs in the slight rise in the jobless rate to 4.4 percent, the highest in nearly four years, and in the downward revisions to payrolls for both July and August.” 

“An ongoing and concerning trend is again seen here: the lack of sectors with healthy job creation,” he added.

What Happens Next

The Department of Labor has confirmed it will not be releasing a full jobs report for October, citing data collection issues caused the government shutdown. Payroll data will be included alongside November’s report on December 16, but this will not include an unemployment rate for October.