Leftover Thanksgiving turkey sandwiches on Friday are the best. They’re still pretty good on Saturday, too. By Sunday and Monday, the turkey starts to get a little funky, and people actually make a stop gesture and a queasy face when you suggest another sandwich or turkey hash.
It’s the same face people make when Taysom Hill comes into a game for the New Orleans Saints these days. At one point, many years ago, Hill was a cute gimmick — hey, look at the quarterback/tight end who runs over people. He was Tim Tebow Lite.
And credit to him for coming back from a gruesome knee injury. But the Saints were already a bad “best bet” pick by me, and the 35-year-old Hill trudging onto the field in the red zone made it much worse.
In the first quarter, he got stuffed. In the third, he threw incomplete on fourth-and-goal from the 1-yard line. Later, the Saints were driving, down only 16-7, and Hill came in on third-and-goal from the 1. He failed to secure a high shotgun snap, retreated to recover it and threw a pass to no one in the end zone for an intentional grounding penalty. Stealing reps from rookie Tyler Shough like The Grinch on Christmas, Hill finished 0-for-2 passing and ran the ball 10 times for 17 yards.
Did we mention that he’s 35 and the Saints are 2-9? It’s worse than Pete Carroll and the 2-9 Las Vegas Raiders playing his bingo buddy, Tyler Lockett, over all those receivers they drafted.
Sorry for the rant. Still sore.
The Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots were both covering for us in the fourth quarter before taking naps, and those two losses ATS turned a winning week into a losing one — both overall and in best bets. Maybe we’ll pick some teams that are angry, like us …
Last week’s record: 6-8 against the spread, 1-4 on best bets
Season record: 84-88-6 against the spread, 29-31 on best bets
All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made. Click here for live odds.
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-2.5) | 1 p.m. ET Thursday, Fox
Jahmyr Gibbs leads all NFL players in scrimmage yards (582), explosive plays (10) and first downs (25) over the past three weeks. But the Packers have allowed explosive plays (runs of 12-plus yards and passes of 16-plus) on less than 8 percent of snaps, the second-best rate in the NFL. The Lions got blown out by the Packers in the opener (a garbage-time TD made the score a more respectable 27-13), and there’s no reason Green Bay can’t take advantage of a suspect Detroit offensive line again.
The pick: Packers
Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Dallas Cowboys | 4:30 p.m. ET Thursday, CBS
Everybody’s building the Cowboys up just so they can tear them down. As for all the talk of Patrick Mahomes slipping, he ranks second in the league in explosive pass rate on throws outside the pocket (21 percent), with seven touchdowns and just one interception. The Cowboys’ defense ranks 23rd in defensive success rate on dropbacks outside the pocket (53 percent), with four touchdowns and one interception.
The Chiefs got their first one-score victory of the season last week — they had 11 last year — and roll here, as road favorites on Thanksgiving will improve to 21-6 ATS since 2004.
The pick: Chiefs
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-7) | 8:20 p.m. ET Thursday, NBC
Of course Joe Burrow made it back for this game. Last season, he became only the third QB this century to throw for nine touchdowns against an opponent — the Ravens. Plus, the Bengals have found their run game since he left.
The Ravens didn’t cover the spread the past two weeks against the lowly Browns and Jets, and I wonder if they are really any good despite winning five consecutive games. Lamar Jackson isn’t running like he used to, and now he is on a short week.
The pick: Bengals
Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-7) | 3 p.m. ET Friday, Amazon Prime
The Bears are the third team in history to have eight or more wins with a negative point differential (-3) through 11 games. Their schedule gets tougher (Packers next week), and it’s hard to see Caleb “Houdini” Williams pulling off another fourth-quarter magic trick.
The Eagles have held opposing QBs to the second-lowest fourth-quarter passer rating and the worst fourth-quarter completion percentage. Maybe they can get to 9-3 and actually crack a smile.
The pick: Eagles
San Francisco 49ers (-5) at Cleveland Browns | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
Kyle Shanahan is 5-0 ATS in the game after a victory on “Monday Night Football,” but the 49ers have lost their past four games in Cleveland, which appears likely to be snowy or rainy, and the Browns are 4-1 ATS at home this year. Tough one …
The Raiders didn’t blitz Shedeur Sanders last week for some reason, but the 49ers will — and cover the spread.
The pick: 49ers
New Orleans Saints at Miami Dolphins (-6) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
The Dolphins won three of four games before taking a week off, and they return to face a Saints team that gave mouth-to-mouth to Kirk Cousins’ career last week. Teams around the league are converting 56 percent of their fourth-down chances, but the Saints are only 9 of 25 (36 percent), and giving away points will come in handy here.
The pick: Dolphins
Arizona Cardinals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
Teddy Bridgewater might step in for an injured Baker Mayfield, and though he is no Jacoby Brissett, the Buccaneers are starting to get some of their other injured players back. They also have the coaching edge in a game they have to have after losing three straight.
The pick: Buccaneers
Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5) at Tennessee Titans | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
Trevor Lawrence was terrible last week, turning the ball over four times and missing open receivers, and the Jaguars still won and covered over the Cardinals. That’s called playing with house money. The Titans fall to 0-4 on a rare four-game stretch of home games.
The pick: Jaguars
Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) at New York Jets | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
Cousins had a nice, deep touchdown throw last week, but that road win had everything to do with the Saints and little to do with the Falcons. Breece Hall, meanwhile, has not pouted that the Chiefs got cold feet on trading for him, and the Jets RB has 135 yards after the catch in the past three games. With his help, Tyrod Taylor makes it two in a row ATS.
The pick: Jets
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-4.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
If the Chiefs make a playoff run, they can thank the Colts, who handed Jonathan Taylor the ball once in their final three possessions and took only 3:15 off the clock. The Colts are angry and returning home for the first time in a month against a team with no offense.
The pick: Colts
Jonathan Taylor should get much more work against the Texans than he did against the Chiefs. (Michael Hickey / Getty Images)
Los Angeles Rams (-10.5) at Carolina Panthers | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
The lights were way too bright for Bryce Young on Monday night, and the Rams’ pass rush and secondary are a lot better than the 49ers’. The Panthers also have to face the hottest QB in the league with half of their secondary either injured or suspended. Yeah, it’s a lot of points to lay on the road, but the Rams have won six straight games by an average of 19 points.
The pick: Rams
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks (-11.5) | 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
Revenge week for Sam Darnold, whose new teammates seem to care about him and can recognize the importance of this game for him. The Vikings should know better than to throw a bunch of blitzes at their old QB, who leads the NFL in yards per attempt against the blitz (10.8). The cherry on top is that the Vikings are starting a rookie QB in a very tough place to play.
The pick: Seahawks
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-10) | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
Geno Smith was sacked 10 times last week, and he couldn’t flip off his 300-pound offensive linemen, so he gave the home crowd the bird instead. The Raiders fired offensive coordinator Chip Kelly after the game. They usually have a lot of their fans show up in Los Angeles. which might be bad for Geno. The Chargers are coming off a 29-point loss to the Jaguars and a bye week, so they will be locked in on Smith as well.
The pick: Chargers
Buffalo Bills (-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
Another mad team. The Bills have been ripped to shreds after losing to the meanest defense in the league (Texans) … on the road … on a short week … by four points. They should lean on James Cook against a Steelers team that can’t stop the run. The Bills also can’t stop the run, but that’s when you look at the QB matchup and smile.
The pick: Bills
Denver Broncos (-5.5) at Washington Commanders | 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC
It would be malpractice for the Commanders to play Jayden Daniels again this season. Which begs the question: Is Dan Quinn coaching for his job? Both teams are coming off a bye, but maybe an angry Commanders team — remember, they are one of the oldest teams in the league — that likes Quinn can keep it close against a Broncos team that has been patted on the back for two weeks for beating the Chiefs. We’re gonna need some heavy rain and for Bad Bo Nix to show up.
The pick: Commanders
New York Giants at New England Patriots (-7.5) | 8:15 p.m. ET Monday, ABC/ESPN
The Giants lost last week despite gaining more than 500 yards, and they’ve done that twice this season. But they covered the spread for us, and they’ll do it again here against a Patriots team that has won nine games in a row and has a bye week before a rematch with the Bills on deck. New England has red zone issues, not to mention some big injuries on the offensive line.
The pick: Giants
Best bets: We get our fill of the Packers and Chiefs on Thanksgiving, take a couple of angry teams in the Bills and Colts, and then the Giants‘ improved offense paves a path for another cover on Monday night.
Upset special (spread of at least 3 points): I believe in Santa Claus, the Easter Bunny and Joe Burrow +260. Bengals.
— TruMedia research courtesy of Jason Starrett.