Chicago Public Schools students graduate at record rates

Chicago Public Schools students are graduating from high school at near record-high rates, but only half who enroll in college will complete their credential within a decade, a new report says.

The overall college completion rate for CPS alumni is 48% — below the national average of 64%, according to an annual study from the University of Chicago Consortium on School Research and the To&Through Project.

“Getting students into college is a great first step, but starting college and not completing is not a good outcome, for the most part,” said Alex Usher, director of data and research at the To&Through Project. “There’s definitely work to be done ahead.”

Each year, researchers calculate a measure called the postsecondary attainment index: If 100 students started ninth grade in CPS today, 84 would graduate from high school, 58 would enroll in college immediately, and 30 would complete a college credential in 10 years. Those numbers are almost identical to last year’s report.

Researchers didn’t directly address why completion rates remain low. But experts cite a range of barriers to earning a degree — including soaring costs, complex program requirements and limited support systems.

The study notes that the predictions are just “a starting place.” As the district continues to improve, future student outcomes will follow suit, according to researchers.

“To me, the real value of the (attainment index) is almost like a rallying point, or a motivating point,” Usher said. “The system can, and has changed, and this doesn’t have to be a prediction or destiny.”

The disparities are even wider across race and gender. In the graduating class of 2018, Asian and white women were most likely to complete college, each with completion rates of 81%. Meanwhile, Black men had the lowest completion rates at 27%, followed by Black women and Latino men, at 40%.

A July study found that Illinois students from the lowest-income families are three times more likely than their wealthier peers to drop out. Some of it is tied to the types of postsecondary institutions low-income students attend, researchers said. For-profit colleges, which tend to lead to greater debt, disproportionately recruit Black and Latino students. Those students are also overrepresented at community colleges, where they often face complex transfer processes.

Usher said it puts the onus on colleges and universities to increase their student support, alongside CPS. “The student body at a lot of colleges and universities is changing. It’s not what it was 30 or 40 years ago,” she said. “They need to change in response if we’re going to move these completion rates.”

The class of 2024, which is central to the data, also started high school during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. The sudden shift to remote learning widened achievement gaps and contributed to high chronic absenteeism rates across the district. Researchers noted that the pandemic’s residual impacts are likely reflected in student outcomes.

Those students faced other challenges as well. A delayed Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) release date last year led to corresponding delays in financial aid packages. The cohort was also the first to apply to college after the U.S. Supreme Court ended affirmative action, which may have affected some students’ sense of belonging in higher education, the report noted.

Still, there’s some good news from the data. Among the CPS class of 2024, 66% enrolled in a two-year or four-year college in the first summer or fall after graduation. That outpaces the national average of 61%.

A record number of CPS alumni also graduated from a college with a degree or certificate this year: 7,368 students from the class of 2018.

“I think it’s just such a testament to the work that the district, and the wider ecosystem in Chicago has been doing around college enrollment,” Usher said.

In fact, CPS has shown significant growth over the past decade, across multiple metrics. A decade ago, researchers predicted that just 73% of then-ninth graders would graduate, and 40% would enroll in a four-year college (compared with 84% and 43% this year).

And while graduation rates are slightly down, they’re still hovering above the post-COVID low of 82% in 2021.

“I don’t think most Chicagoans know how much progress we’ve made in the last 20 years, and even in the last 10 years,” Usher said.