Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 14’s game between the Los Angeles Chargers and the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football.

SoFi gets two 8-4 teams tonight, but they are headed in different directions. Philadelphia opened the season as a bully, then spent the last month stuck under 21 points in every game. Los Angeles looked disjointed early, then quietly stacked a 3-1 stretch with only one clunker in Jacksonville. The Eagles bring the bigger brand and the cleaner turnover résumé, but the Chargers walk in with the better defense and the hotter quarterback. This feels less like a Philly showcase and more like a referendum on whether Jim Harbaugh’s group is actually the sharper team right now. Both teams, however, carry scars into it: Herbert plays through a fractured left hand, while Jalen Carter and Lane Johnson are already ruled out. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 14’s game between the Los Angeles Chargers and the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

The raw yardage already tilts toward Los Angeles. The Chargers gain 346.8 yards per game to the Eagles’ 304.8, and they allow only 275.3 yards per game while Philly gives up 347.2. Defensive EPA sharpens that picture: Los Angeles sits at -0.062 EPA per play allowed, Philadelphia at -0.046, so the Chargers are forcing more truly negative snaps. The Eagles hold the slight offensive EPA edge at +0.017 per play to the Chargers’ -0.005, but that gap has shrunk as their scoring slid to 15.5 points per game over the last four. On a play-for-play basis, this profiles like Chargers defense versus Eagles offense as the real mismatch, not the other way around. Taking Carter out of the middle strips Philadelphia of its most disruptive interior piece just as Los Angeles gets rookie Omarion Hampton back to lean on a compromised front. That combination tilts the trench math even further toward the Chargers, especially if they lean into last week’s downhill rushing template.

Quarterback play is where the game stretches. Jalen Hurts has the pristine season line: 66.1 percent completions, 2,514 yards at 7.4 yards per attempt, a 19-to-2 touchdown-interception line and +0.098 EPA per dropback, plus 329 rushing yards and eight rushing scores. Justin Herbert counters with 66.9 percent completions, 2,842 yards at 7.2 yards per attempt, 21 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, +0.040 EPA per dropback and 353 rushing yards on scrambles. He is doing that while managing a fractured left, non-throwing hand, fresh off surgery, which pushes his already high-variance profile into even choppier water. Over the last four games, though, Hurts has slipped to 59.1 percent, 209.3 yards per game and -0.009 EPA per play while Herbert has climbed to +0.086 EPA, even while absorbing a brutal 56.0 percent pressure rate. Hurts is the safer steward; Herbert is the live-wire, high-variance engine, and as a home underdog that volatility actually leans in Los Angeles’ favor.

Both passing games have real teeth. The Eagles concentrate volume through A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert, a trio that has combined for 229 targets. Brown and Smith sit at 699 and 802 yards with nine touchdowns between them; Goedert owns seven scores and a ridiculous +0.442 EPA per target as a red-zone hammer. The Chargers answer with depth instead of one alpha: Ladd McConkey, Keenan Allen and Oronde Gadsden have 232 combined targets, all over 600 yards or tracking there, each carrying positive EPA per target. When Herbert spreads the ball from moving pockets, he is not hunting a single mismatch; he is picking at whichever of those three lands on a leverage corner or linebacker. That kind of distribution matters against a Philadelphia defense that has been leaky to multiple receiver types rather than one archetype.

Eagles vs. Chargers pick, best bet

The biggest counterargument is simple: Hurts takes care of the ball and Herbert does not. Two interceptions versus 10 is a meaningful gap, and turnovers have blown up plenty of otherwise sharp bets this season. But the Chargers defense amplifies their own chaos in a way Philadelphia’s does not: 34 sacks and 11 interceptions versus 24 and eight. Herbert is a high-variance quarterback; he can hand the Eagles short fields, but he also stretches the game with explosive answers that Hurts’ current version has not matched. With the defenses this far apart in yardage allowed and EPA, I am willing to embrace that volatility when the plus money sits on the better stop unit.

The market hanging Eagles -2.5 and Chargers +110 on the moneyline still treats Philadelphia like the clearly superior roster instead of acknowledging how even this matchup has become. On my card this feels closer to Chargers -1 than Eagles -2.5 once you factor in home field, defensive efficiency and recent quarterback form. I expect Los Angeles to make this a trench and third-down game, squeezing Hurts into more long fields while Herbert leans on McConkey and Allen against soft spots in coverage. One or two of those high-variance Herbert plays go our way instead of Philly’s, and the better defense does the rest. Missing Carter inside and Johnson on the edge, the Eagles no longer have their full trench backbone to punish that risk, while Hampton’s return gives Los Angeles another fresh, physical runner to press that advantage.

Chargers ML. Let’s bolt up.

Final score: Chargers 23, Eagles 20.

Best bet: Chargers (+110) vs Eagles

Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!

For a prop lean, Oronde Gadsden under 38.5 receiving yards at -115 is where I want to be. On the season he has 38 catches for 534 yards and 2 touchdowns on 51 targets, a strong 14.1 yards per reception, but the recent trend is quietly cooling: over the last four games he has 11 receptions for 149 yards on 18 targets, a 37.3-yard average that includes one 50-plus spike and three games at 35 or fewer. The matchup leans even harder to the under; Philadelphia is giving up only 35.0 receiving yards and 4.1 catches per game to tight ends, one of the stingiest stat lines in the league, while they’ve been far more generous to outside receivers. Our Chargers script has Justin Herbert leaning on Ladd McConkey and Keenan Allen against the corners and letting Omarion Hampton test a Jalen Carter–less front rather than forcing throws into bracketed tight end windows. Gadsden is still a high-variance talent who can beat this on one seam if coverage busts, but with his target share drifting down into the teens and the Eagles’ TE numbers this suffocating, I’m comfortable playing the under at 38.5 and would ride it to the mid-30s.

Best prop lean: Oronde Gadsden u38.5 total receiving yards (-115)

Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!