As July begins, the stock market continues to defy expectations. The NASDAQ and the S&P 500, reached record closing highs on June 30th. Despite multiple wars, political turmoil, tariffs, a stock market correction and surprisingly sticky interest rates, the stock market continues to chug along. At this point, a rising stock market is beginning to feel as predictable as the massive inflow of tourists invading Tahoe for the Fourth of July.

Underneath it all, there are reasons to be wary. There is still a ton of uncertainty regarding tariffs, inflation and interest rates. Many investors are concerned of the high price of stocks right now. Nobody really knows exactly how tariffs, once they are finalized, are going to impact businesses and their profits (and similarly, consumer spending).

If you are among the growing number of investors who are concerned about the markets, I would like to give you a couple of things to consider before you tear apart your investment portfolio.

First, J.P. Morgan Asset Management shares that from January 1, 1988 through December 31, 2023, the S&P 500 averaged a 1-year gain of 13.4% following a new market high. This beats the average return of 11.9% during that same period. Of course, past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

Second, even though the market has been on fire for the past 3 months with (per Reuters) the S&P 500 rising over 10% and the NASDAQ up nearly 18%, stocks have not been impressive overall in 2025. In fact, both indices had their weakest performances for the first half of the year since 2022, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ both up a bit over 5% year-to-date. Fine performance, but not the sort of thing that one would brag about.

I’m not saying that you can expect great investment returns for the rest of this year—I leave predictions to the fine folks who get paid for article clicks online. I have no idea what the market will do tomorrow. What I am saying is that one of the most certain ways to make less money on your investments is to try to predict which direction the market is about to go and for how long. Believing you can outsmart the market takes a great deal of hubris. Professionals, spend every day researching with cutting-edge tools—and they still don’t get it right all the time.

Per Morningstar, if you were invested in the S&P 500 for the past 30 years and missed out on the 10 best days, your returns would be cut in less than half. Ten days in 30 years! Further complicating the idea of market timing is the fact that many of the best days happen just before or after many of the worst days. You can try to miss a bad day on the market, but you are just as likely (if not more) to miss a good day.

Just as Tahoe weathers the annual July flood of visitors, your portfolio should be built to endure the market’s seasonal storms. The best answer for all of this is to have a resilient, diversified

portfolio that matches your risk tolerance. Be in it for the long run if you are looking for good returns, because you never want to be forced to sell when prices are down.

The market is resilient over the long haul. We should be resilient, too.

As we gear up to celebrate the Fourth of July, invest smart and invest well!

Larry Sidney is a Zephyr Cove-based Investment Advisor Representative. Information is found at https://palisadeinvestments.com/ or by calling 775-299-4600 x702. This is not a solicitation to buy or sell securities. Clients may hold positions mentioned in this article. Returns are not guaranteed and past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult your financial advisor before purchasing any security.