If we’re talking about win probability, the Chicago Bears had the deck stacked against them with just under two minutes to play in their NFC North showdown with the Green Bay Packers on Saturday night.

In the parlance of Suzanne Collins, the odds simply were not in the favor of the Bears. Just two weeks after falling to the Packers by a single touchdown, it looked as if history would repeat itself for Chicago. There was 1:59 remaining in regulation, and things had just gone right for the Bears, because they had managed to drive down the field and kick a field goal to narrow a ten-point Packers lead to a 16-9 game. But they only had two timeouts remaining, and still had to kickoff to the Packers. The Bears had a win probability at that point in the game of just 0.5%.

But Bears head coach Ben Johnson and his team weren’t going away without a fight. The Bears dialed up an onside kick, and stunned everyone watching when they pulled off the recovery. That in itself is improbable, given the general success rate on such plays for the kicking team. But the improbabilities were stopping. From there, the Bears proceeded to drive the ball down the field, with quarterback Caleb Williams pulling off a perfect pass on a fourth-down scramble out of the pocket to score the game-tying touchdown with under 30 seconds to play to force overtime.

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Once in the extra period, the Bears got a massive defensive stop before Williams dialed up another big throw and connected on a 46-yard walk-off touchdown pass to D.J. Moore. When the dust settled, the late-game rally from just a half-percent chance to win coming out of the two-minute warning to an overtime victory stands as the fifth-most improbable NFL victory since the 2016 season.

With the win, the Bears move into a 1.5-game lead in the NFC North with just two games to play on their regular season schedule. If they can hold onto the divisional lead, they’ll secure their first NFC North title since the 2018 season and will be guaranteed their first playoff appearance in five seasons.

This article originally appeared on Touchdown Wire: Chicago Bears pull off the near-impossible with comeback win