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Shane van Gisbergen
Sonoma Fantasy Outlook – Look for Shane van Gisbergen to show up with a fast #88 and be the driver to beat at Sonoma in the Toyota / Save Mart 350. SVG is always fast at road courses and going back to last year, SVG has the best Track Type Total Speed Ranking, having ranked # 1 for speed in 4 of the last 6 races. This year at road courses, SVG has won 2 of the 3 races, has the best Track Type Total Speed Ranking, the best average finish (2.7), the best average running position (3.3) and the best Driver Rating by a wide margin. Last summer at Sonoma, SVG took the Xfinity series competition to the woodshed en route to victory lane, so there’s no doubt he’s plenty capable here in what will be his first Cup start in wine country.
Sonoma Track History – Last year at Sonoma in the Xfinity series, SVG smoked the field from the pole. In the race, SVG finished 1st, had a 2.7 average running position and led 40.5% of the laps.

Kyle Larson
Sonoma Fantasy Outlook – Kyle Larson is a super-elite performer at Sonoma and on Sunday, he’ll be a top threat to SVG. At Sonoma, Larson is the defending winner, he’s won 2 of the last 4 races but in terms of “Performance”, he probably should’ve won 3 of the last 4. Over the last four Sonoma races, Larson has the best Driver Rating, the 2nd best average running position and his 6.3 average finish which underrates him is tied for being the 2nd best. Since 2024 at road courses, Larson ranks 6th in terms of Track Type Total Speed Rankings. On Sunday, look for Larson to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Sonoma Track History –  In the #5 at Sonoma, Kyle Larson has been elite and in 3 of the 4 races he could’ve easily been the winner. In the results column in the #5, he’s 2 for 4 at reaching victory lane. In the Next Gen over the last three, Larson has the 3rd best Driver Rating, the 4th best Next Gen Speed Ranking and ranks 5th in terms of average finish (8.0). Last year, Larson was the class of the field and raced his way to victory lane with relative ease, having to make late passes on McDowell, Buescher and Truex. In the race, Larson started 5th, had the best average running position (5.5), earned the best Driver Rating, led 19 laps and of course raced his way to victory lane. In terms of speed stats, Larson ranked #1 across the board for Total Speed Rankings, Green Flag Speed and Speed Late In A Run. In 2023, Larson was solid but also sort of a letdown given the high expectations. In the race, Larson started 16th, had an 11.1 average running position and then finished 8th. In terms of speed stats, Larson ranked 2nd for Speed Late In A Run and ranked 11th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In 2022, Larson likely had the best car but the #5 team beat themselves with bad pit strategy and then losing a wheel. In the race, Larson started on the pole and led the opening 26 laps winning Stage #1, but then that pit strategy shuffled him deep in the field. When Stage #2 ended, Larson had driven up thru the field to 13th. Then in the final Stage on lap 82 while running in 8th, Larson lost a wheel bringing out the caution which doomed him to a 15th. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Larson ranked 10th but take note his speed over the segments were 1st, 12th, 15th and then 17th. In 2021, Larson started on the pole, won Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 57 laps, earned a near perfect driver rating, was the Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had the best Total Speed Ranking.

Chase Elliott
Sonoma Fantasy Outlook – Chase Elliott is an elite performer at road courses who’ll be tough to beat at Sonoma. Elliott’s a 7-time winner on this track type, but Victory Lane has long eluded him at Sonoma. That said, Elliott hasn’t lacked when it comes to performance and since 2017 minus a 2019 engine failure his average finish is 5.2. This year at road courses, Elliott ranks 10th in terms of Track Type Total Speed Rankings and has a 7.7 average finish (3rd best). At Sonoma, look for Elliott to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Sonoma Track History – Chase Elliott has performed at an elite level at Sonoma and in 6 of the last 7 races, he’s finished between 2nd to 8th, with an engine failure being the lone outlier. In the Next Gen over the last three, Elliott has the 3rd best average finish (5.7), the 3rd best Next Gen Speed Ranking and his Driver Rating ranks as the 4th best. Last year, Elliott finished 4th, had the 2nd best average running position (8.3) and earned the 3rd best Driver Rating. In terms of speed stats, Elliott ranked 2nd for Total Speed Rankings and 5th for Speed Late In A Run. In 2023, Elliott was a factor. In the race, Elliott finished 5th, had an 8.2 average running position, led 7 laps and earned the 8th best Driver Rating. In terms of speed stats, Elliott ranked 5th for Speed Late In A Run and then 9th for Total Speed Rankings. In 2022, Elliott had a great chance to notch his first “W”, but his race wasn’t incident free. In the race, Elliott led 26 laps but then late in Stage #2 while leading, Elliott had problems during a pit stop and was then penalized for pitting outside his pit box. That dropped him back to 33rd to start the final Stage which makes his 8th pretty impressive. In terms of speed stats, Elliott ranked 3rd for Speed Late In A Run and 5th for Total Speed Rankings. In the four races prior to that, Elliott had results of 2nd, 37th (engine blew up while running in 3rd), 4th and 8th.

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