The Seattle Seahawks entered Week 16 in second place in the NFC West and as the No. 5 seed and exited with the division lead and control of the coveted No. 1 seed. While the easiest way for the Seahawks to confirm their home-field advantage throughout the playoffs is to win their remaining two games, the Monday Night Football matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Indianapolis Colts did affect what’s on the line for Week 17.

Current NFC playoff picture

49ers win: Seahawks can clinch NFC West in Week 17, but not No. 1 seed

The bad news is the Seahawks will almost certainly have to play their starters in Week 18 if they want the No. 1 seed. The good news is that Seattle still can wrap up the NFC West if the following results happen:

That would be enough for Seattle to win the NFC West for the first time since 2020, but Week 18 would be exclusively about fending off the Bears for the No. 1 seed. Chicago would hold a conference record tiebreaker on the Seahawks should the teams finish with identical records at the end of the season.

It should be noted that if SEA over CAR, CHI tie SF, and ATL over/tie LAR all happen, Seattle clinches the top seed, but only a tie in the Bears-49ers game will suffice. This is extremely unlikely given the rarity of ties, so be realistic here.

Had 49ers lost: Seahawks could’ve clinched NFC West, No. 1 seed in Week 17

San Francisco’s loss was step one for Seattle’s unlikely but not impossible path to securing the division and a first-round bye for the playoffs with a week to spare. One wrinkle? The Seahawks would’ve preferred the 49ers not lose in Week 17.

The NFC West/No. 1 seed double clinch scenario consisted only of the following:

Of course, if the Seahawks lose to Carolina then the Falcons vs. Rams game holds all of the importance for Seattle in terms of the division. A Rams win just about locks up the NFC West given their final game is at home to the 3-12 Arizona Cardinals, whereas a Rams loss or tie still keeps Seattle in first place entering Week 18.

Philip Rivers tried his hardest but dadgummit, the Colts defense was atrocious and the 49ers prevailed 48-27. So mentally prepare yourself for Seattle’s seeding to come down to the final week.