The 2025 offseason teased excitement in a growing cap world. But for all the hype and attention focused on this summer, most are keeping an eye on next year’s class of free agents. 

The 2026 free agent class is stacked. It’s hard to carve out space when Connor McDavid, Kirill Kaprizov and Jack Eichel headline the UFA class. But 2026 RFAs can’t be overlooked, either. 

A number of general managers got to work on restricted free agent extensions early this offseason. Maybe it was to have a better handle on their financial flexibility ahead of July 1. Maybe the threat of offer sheets forced general managers to handle business early. Or maybe it was an effort to avoid extra rising costs that could have been recalibrated by UFAs on July 1. 

In any case, it could inspire teams to get a jump on the 2026 class before the market recalibrates for next year’s salary cap growth. Here’s an early look at what some of next year’s top restricted free agent contracts could be worth. 

Jason Robertson, Dallas Stars

Robertson’s name has generated early buzz this summer, but not solely for extension purposes. His name was floated around the rumor mill after the Stars were eliminated in the Western Conference final for the third straight year. 

The Stars are in a salary bind this year. It helps that Robertson’s next deal (and Thomas Harley’s) won’t kick in until 2026-27, but those extensions, plus any other roster moves, will quickly fill up their projected $28 million in cap space. 

Robertson is in the final year of a four-year deal carrying a $7.75 million cap hit. Evolving-Hockey’s model points to an eight-year extension worth a $10.9 million AAV. If the Stars want to go the distance with their franchise winger, that contract will have to be signed sooner rather than later since the new CBA will limit extensions to seven-year terms. That could be influential in a number of these RFA dealings over the next few months. If not, maybe Dallas will take note of Nikolaj Ehlers’ six-year term and push the cap hit below the $10 million mark. 

Players who can score 40-plus goals don’t grow on trees, and he brings more to the table than just his shot. Robertson’s passing and defensive growth make him a well-rounded threat. What holds him back is his playoff pedigree. While he gave his team a spark this spring after returning from injury, he doesn’t have a strong track record in years past. Neither does Mitch Marner, who just signed for a $12 million AAV. 

That, paired with the Stars’ cap situation (and yes, the tax advantage), could motivate him to sign a hometown discount to help management build the most competitive team possible around him.  

Thomas Harley, Dallas Stars

Like Robertson, the Harley situation will be tricky for the Stars to navigate. This was the risk of signing him to a bridge deal two years ago. His value exploded as he emerged as a true top-pair defenseman in Dallas. 

Since he is a couple of years younger than Robertson, maybe there isn’t that same urgency to sign him to a mega-deal right now to buy more cap flexibility. But that would bring him closer to unrestricted free agency and create another problem. The best course of action is to lock him up sooner rather than later, before his value spikes any higher. 

Harley may be the number two to Miro Heiskanen in Dallas, but he stepped up in Heiskanen’s absence to showcase what his ceiling is. The question is whether Heiskanen’s contract serves as an internal cap of sorts at $8.45 million a year. That was worth 10.4 percent of the cap back in 2021, which equates to $10.8 million in a projected $104 million salary cap in 2026-27. Evolving-Hockey’s model suggests something in between: a $9.53 million cap hit on an eight-year deal, which would be team-friendly with his ability and trajectory in mind. 

What makes the situation a little more challenging is that there aren’t a ton of comps for Harley to point to his long-term direction, outside of Alex Pietrangelo and Kevin Shattenkirk. So the Stars have to pave their own way here in gauging his value.

Lane Hutson, Montreal Canadiens

The Harley situation is exactly why Montreal may want to go big on Hutson’s deal right after his entry-level contract expires. The difference here is that Hutson made more of an instant impact in the NHL, which earned him the Calder Trophy this year. So unless the player chooses to bet on himself with something short-term first, there may not be any question of how to proceed here. 

A long-term deal would be in line with how the Canadiens acted with other core players. While the Nick Suzuki extension was a part of the Marc Bergevin era, Kent Hughes signed Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky to eight-year contracts right after their ELCs. Caufield signed his contract a few weeks before his ELC expired, while Slafkovsky’s was done a year early. 

Hutson has game-breaking offensive potential from the back end. And while his defense isn’t perfect just yet, it improved a ton down the stretch. So, how much will that be worth? Evolving-Hockey suggests an $8 million cap hit over the next seven years. But the bar may be a bit higher here. 

Like Harley, Hutson doesn’t have a ton of close comps. But his best match, Cale Makar, could be the best model to follow. Makar signed a six-year deal with a $9 million cap hit after his ELC. That translates to an $11.5 million cap hit in a $104 million cap world, which may be too drastic of a jump off an entry-level deal — especially when the star players aren’t the ones benefiting the most from the rising cap (the middle class is). So something in between Makar’s AAV and that number could be the sweet spot for Hutson. A six-year term, like Makar, would click for Hutson’s sake; it would open the door to another big contract at 28 years old. 

Connor Bedard, Chicago Blackhawks

Players drafted first overall in their draft class 1) are thought to have the highest ceiling and 2) are expected to hit that ceiling sooner. That can create a high-pressure situation for a player early in their career, and sometimes it’s a burden they have to carry alone. Most lottery-winning teams are in a rebuilding phase, so that top pick usually isn’t joining a roster flush with high-end talent. Instead, they’re dropped into a situation and expected to be the difference. That can weigh on their game and create some wrinkles in their long-term outlook. 

The Blackhawks haven’t done the best job supporting Bedard in Chicago, which has amplified some of his shortcomings. Bedard’s defense is a weakness that has been exposed in tough minutes over the last couple of years. That could explain why his offensive impact got a little stagnant this past season. 

Evolving-Hockey points to a $10.6 million AAV over the next eight years, which is true superstar money for someone his age. It’s above what Bedard is projected to be worth over that span, but that could easily change if he starts hitting his stride more consistently.

Bedard’s top comps both suggest it’s possible — from Eichel, who thrived despite his surroundings, and Clayton Keller, whose skill took a little more time to translate at this level consistently. But there aren’t a ton of close matches to base decisions on in Bedard’s case, which adds another element of uncertainty to the situation. 

Even with those question marks, the most likely outcome is a long-term deal with management chalking up any shortcomings to his surroundings, based on how most teams manage franchise players.

Logan Cooley, Utah Mammoth

Over the last year or so, Utah has distinguished itself from the Arizona era with a willingness to spend. Will Cooley benefit from that?

Dylan Guenther got the bag months before his ELC expired, which could provide a blueprint for Cooley. Guenther had only played 45 games at the NHL level before management extended him for eight years with a $7.14 million AAV. So the fact that Cooley hasn’t fully blossomed into a true first-line-caliber center may not sway management from jumping into the $8 million range. While Cooley isn’t an $8-9 million center just yet, he can grow into the deal.  

Some of Cooley’s top comps support that idea, with Keller, Nathan MacKinnon and Elias Pettersson in mind. But there’s also a complementary player track he could follow, like Trevor Zegras and Anthony Duclair. Sam Gagner and Alex Galchenyuk paint a more concerning picture. 

The latter two paths are especially concerning for a team that isn’t very deep at center. Add in the fact that Barrett Hayton is also an RFA next summer after his bridge deal expires, and it’s possible management opts for a more patient approach. 

But with a handful of contracts coming off the books over the next couple of seasons, and a lot of cap space to work with, the Mammoth may want a solidified core before their window of contention even starts. 

Adam Fantilli, Columbus Blue Jackets

Most of the Blue Jackets’ up-and-coming forwards are playing through bridge deals. Kent Johnson, Cole Sillinger and Dmitri Voronkov all signed two-year deals after their ELCs expired. Kirill Marchenko is in the middle of a three-year second contract. So there is a precedent in Columbus for a short-term deal for Fantilli next summer. 

A two-year deal is projected to carry a $4.63 million cap hit, which would be a cautious path to take. It would be a chance for management to ensure that he isn’t going to be the next Dawson Mercer or Filip Zadina. 

But Fantilli showed a lot of promise, especially when he jumped up to the top line in Sean Monahan’s absence last year, which could convince management that he is on a Dylan Larkin path. And that could be a reason to go big sooner than later — maybe to that same $8 million range as Cooley. 

Two things work in Fantilli’s favor: The Blue Jackets have a ton of space to work with, and management expects to work on his contract this summer. The latter may be the best indication that a long-term deal is the goal; it wouldn’t make sense for the player to sign anything short-term before playing out this next season. By working on an extension sooner, the Blue Jackets have a better chance of keeping the cap hit team-friendly before he grows any more this year. 

Whoever signs first of Fantilli, Cooley or Bedard could set the bar for the others.

Dustin Wolf, Calgary Flames

Wolf was the brightest spot in Calgary this year. Not only did he earn Calder Trophy hype, he also put himself up there with some of the top goalies in the league. His 26.4 goals saved above expected ranked seventh in the league, across 53 games. If that’s an indication of what is to come, he is going to carve out a career as a bona fide starter. 

For goalies, that doesn’t always mean an immediate long-term deal post-ELC. Most goalies play through a shorter-term deal first. Jake Oettinger and Andrei Vasilevskiy signed three-year second contracts, while Igor Shesterkin’s had a four-year term. Jeremy Swayman was somewhat of an exception, with a one-year post-ELC contract before an eight-year extension. 

So with past precedent in mind, Wolf could be in for a two- or three-year deal in the $4 million range, per Evolving-Hockey. That would buy the Flames time to build the team up around him and line up his next contract with their playoff window. It would also give the team more time to study Wolf at this level, considering how volatile the goaltending position can be. 

In theory, if the team wanted to go longer-term now, it could keep costs down (maybe around the $6 million mark). Then again, the Swayman deal recalibrated the market for goalies with a shorter track record, which could help him push closer to the $8 million echelon. 

Pavel Dorofeyev, Vegas Golden Knights

Vegas’ winger depth has been depleted over the years, as management built up the center position and defense. Dorofeyev’s emergence was exactly what the Golden Knights needed this year, between his team-leading 35 goals, volume shooting and power play production. And most importantly for a team with a ton of pricey contracts to balance, he did it on a budget, with a $1.84 million cap hit. 

But in a year, he’s going to be in for a raise — especially if he can repeat this year’s production. That question mark is what could give the Golden Knights pause on an early extension, especially when there are bigger contracts to deal with, like Eichel’s. Is Dorofeyev the next Patric Hornqvist, a reliable part of the supporting cast, or is he more like Andrew Mangiapane and a flash in the pan in the goal column?

Since that isn’t clear, Evolving-Hockey’s three-year projection would make a lot of sense for Vegas. Right now, that carries a $4.96 million cap hit. In a year, that number will go up if he can put up another 30-plus goals in a rising cap world. 

The challenge of waiting is that Dorofeyev could prove the former and raise his worth. If Vegas lets this drag out into next summer, he could be a prime offer sheet target, too. That middle-tier of the RFA class can be the best to target — it doesn’t cost as much as the big names, and can be the best way to squeeze a cap-crunched team like Vegas. The Golden Knights are a team most competitors would be willing to slight. 

Data via Evolving-Hockey, HockeyViz, HockeyStatCards, All Three Zones, Dom Luszczyszyn, TheStanleyCap and Natural Stat Trick. This story relies on shot-based metrics; here is a primer on these numbers.

(Top photo of Thomas Harley and Jason Robertson: Sam Hodde / Getty Images)