Sporadic rain will fall across San Diego County into Monday, slowing the region’s recovery from the massive New Year’s Day storm that caused widespread flooding and saturated the soil in areas that are prone to rock and mudslides.
The first wave of a weak Pacific system is expected to arrive from the west before dawn Sunday and last into mid-morning, the National Weather Service said. A second wave will arrive will late Sunday night and linger until early Monday.
The storm could produce 0.25 inches to 0.50 inches of precipitation from the coast to roughly Interstate 15. Areas further east could get upwards of 0.75 inches, with some spots getting as much as 1 inch. The heaviest precipitation is expected to occur in North County.
Snow could fall as low as 6,000 feet by Sunday night, but significant accumulation is not expected.
Forecasters say it’s possible that the next round of rain could raise the depth of the Santa Margarita River in the Fallbrook-Camp Pendleton area to 9.70 feet on Monday — close to the level it reached during the New Year’s Day storm.
The San Diego River in the Fashion Valley area of Mission Valley could rise to 6.49 feet by Monday, about half as high as it was during the earlier storm.
The incoming system will mostly produce sporadic showers. But forecasters noted that some larger cells might be embedded in the moisture, resulting in brief but intense rainfall, especially before dawn Sunday. Authorities in places like Torrey Pines State Beach and Encinitas will examine whether the additional rain could help trigger coastal rockslides.
Forecasters say that high astronomical tides Sunday and Monday morning will result in minor tidal overflow at some beaches. Waves in the 4-foot to 7-foot range also will contribute to the overflow.
Embedded cells were responsible for some of the heaviest rainfall on New Year’s Day — a deluge that contributed to 10 rescues across San Diego, and a rescue near Lake Hodges. The system drew lots of moisture from the subtropics, making it stronger and warmer than normal. The new system isn’t as dynamic.
The West Coast has been an experiencing a weak La Niña, a periodic change in the climate that often produces really dry winters. So far, things haven’t turned out that way. Since the rainy season began in October 2025, San Diego International Airport has recorded 6.91 inches of precipitation, which is 3.81 inches above the seasonal average. Ramona has received 6.42 inches, about 2.34 inches above normal.
Inland areas typically receive more rain than the coast. But forecasters say recent storms have hit the county at an angle that was more favorable for downpours at and near the beach.