Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 18’s game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Tennessee Titans.
Jacksonville is 12–4, Tennessee is 3–13, and this is the kind of Week 18 that feels like a verdict. The Jaguars have won seven straight, and one more win can stamp the AFC South, with higher seeding still breathing if the rest of Sunday cooperates. EverBank should sound like a playoff gate, because the league’s bracket changes shape off one clean afternoon. Tennessee shows up with nothing banked, and every snap reads like an audition tape for whoever holds the clipboard next fall. And with Patrick Mekari ruled out, Jacksonville has to solve protection early, or the whole day turns into unnecessary knife-fights. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 18’s game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Tennessee Titans.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
The numbers explain why the market sees a mismatch, even before the storyline heat. Jacksonville sits at +0.018 offensive EPA/play and -0.096 defensive EPA/play allowed for the season, then spikes to +0.117 and -0.139 over the last five weeks. Tennessee lives at -0.151 on offense and +0.075 on defense, then crawls to -0.023 and +0.064 lately. That is still Jacksonville winning both sides. Early downs tell the whole shape. Jacksonville’s offense sits at +0.011 EPA/play on early downs, while Tennessee’s offense sits at -0.092. Jacksonville’s early-down defense is -0.071 EPA allowed, while Tennessee’s is +0.066. That’s how one team stays on schedule while the other keeps asking third down for mercy.
Trevor Lawrence (QB) has been the separator inside those margins at +0.043 EPA/dropback, and he eats blitz answers for breakfast at +22.76 EPA versus pressure looks. Cam Ward (QB) sits at -0.199 EPA/dropback and bleeds points against blitz, posting -75.28 EPA in that split. Jacksonville’s explosive layer isn’t abstract, because Parker Washington (WR) has 26 targets with 13.04 yards per route and +0.952 EPA/target, plus a 50% explosive rate on his catches. Brian Thomas (WR) has been the vertical knife with 26 targets, a 20.0% explosive rate, and +0.555 EPA/target. Jakobi Meyers (WR) is the steady chain fuel with 40 targets and +0.144 EPA/target, while Brenton Strange (TE) has 25 targets with +0.285 EPA/target as the middle-of-field hinge. Travis Etienne (RB) has been a negative runner at -0.253 EPA/rush, but he’s been a scoring cheat code as a receiver with four TDs and +0.796 EPA/target on 14 targets. Tennessee can counter with real run teeth, because Tony Pollard (RB) is ripping 5.8 a carry with 3.9 yards after contact per attempt and +0.126 EPA/rush, and Tyjae Spears (RB) has stayed efficient as a receiver with 19 targets and +0.120 EPA/target. The issue is the pass-game ceiling behind that run game, because the Titans’ most-targeted pieces have lived closer to neutral than explosive, and Jacksonville’s defense has tightened in ways that show up on the scoreboard, not just the spreadsheet.
That’s where the defensive personnel and finish matter for the lean. Jacksonville has improved while blitzing less, cutting to a 20.1% blitz rate lately while still posting -0.223 defensive EPA/play allowed over the last six. Tennessee has generated pressure lately at 48.9%, but the takeaway layer stays thin, with a 0.6% interception rate in recent games. And when Jacksonville does get a lead, it squeezes red-zone oxygen, because the Jaguars have hit 66.7% touchdowns on their own red-zone drives over the last six, while Tennessee has allowed touchdowns on 73.3% of opponent red-zone trips. All of the skill players named above are not listed on the Week 18 injury report, so the matchup reads like a clean “best unit wins” setup, not a late-week availability roulette.
Titans vs. Jaguars pick, best bet
That said, the Tennessee cover case is not imaginary, and it starts with trench disruption plus clock control. The Titans have generated pressure at a 48.9% clip over the last six, and Mekari being out makes that stress feel immediate. A big spread always invites one ugly quarter, especially if Jacksonville loses one protection call early. If Tony Pollard (RB) and Tyjae Spears (RB) can keep the chains moving, the back door stays wide open. Tennessee can also steal cheap yards with Chigoziem Okonkwo (TE) and Van Jefferson (WR) on zone beaters, then hope for one busted tackle. I still keep landing on Jacksonville’s defensive profile as the eraser. The Jaguars have tightened to -0.223 EPA/play allowed over the last six, and they’ve turned discipline into takeaways. Their interception rate rises to 3.9% recently, while Tennessee’s has drifted to 0.6%. Jacksonville also guards the scoring zone like a veteran unit. It allows touchdowns on only 50.0% of opponent red-zone trips over the last six, while Tennessee’s defense allows 73.3%. When the field shortens, Jacksonville keeps forcing threes, and Tennessee keeps giving up six.
The script should feel like Jacksonville playing grown-up football with a few body blows mixed in. Jacksonville should live in 11 personnel and spread the picture, because Tennessee has leaned into Cover 3 and Cover 4 and wants the quarterback to get impatient. Lawrence should answer with quick game and screens early, then take his shots when the safeties get nosy. Jakobi Meyers and Brenton Strange should own the middle spacing, and Parker Washington should keep threatening explosives when Tennessee over-rotates to the first read. Tennessee should respond by feeding Pollard behind its improving run blocking, because it has generated +0.032 rush EPA/play over the last six and can shorten the game. Ward should protect himself with defined reads for Okonkwo, plus a couple deep attempts to Elic Ayomanor when Jacksonville squats. In the fourth quarter, the AFC machine always shows itself. Jacksonville should stay aggressive, because the division title is the prize and the league doesn’t forgive sleepy finishes.
So I’m betting Titans +13.5 (-115). The line asks Jacksonville to win by two touchdowns, and I see a game that stays physical longer than that. Jacksonville’s offense is humming, but the run game has been inefficient lately. Travis Etienne (RB) sits at 3.4 a carry with -0.253 EPA/rush over the last six, and the team-wide rush EPA drops to -0.157. That makes Jacksonville more pass-dependent, and that invites pressure variance and a couple stalled drives. It also raises the “earned points” path for Tennessee. A few long drives ending in field goals keeps the margin alive. Jacksonville still owns hidden edges where ugly games get decided. It’s at 58.6% on fourth-down tries with 87.5% field-goal kicking, which is why I still expect a Jaguars win. I just expect the win to cash the division, not necessarily to bury a desperate opponent.
My projected final is Jaguars 27, Titans 17.
Best bet: Titans +13.5 (-115) at Jaguars
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I’m playing Parker Washington (WR) 60+ receiving yards (+160). I’d rather ride his chunk profile than ask for five catches. Over the last six, he’s caught 18 for 339, which is 18.8 per catch with a 13.04 YPRR and +0.952 EPA/target. That’s a receiver who can clear 60 on three or four touches. Tennessee’s 48.9% recent pressure rate should force Trevor Lawrence (QB) into quick answers and defined throws. Jacksonville’s rushing efficiency has dipped lately, so the pass volume should stay honest. If the price is still +160, I’m good down to +140.
Best prop lean: Parker Washington 60+ receiving yards (+160)
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