In case sweeping the “Big Four” didn’t already make it clear, the Critics’ Choice Awards confirmed that One Battle After Another remains the No. 1 Best Picture frontrunner. While Paul Thomas Anderson‘s sprawling neo-Western wasn’t the evening’s dominant winner on the film side — that honor was shared by Ryan Coolger‘s Sinners and Guillermo del Toro‘s Frankenstein with four statuettes apiece — it locked down three crucial wins: Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Adapted Screenplay.
From here, it’s just a hop, skip and a jump next week’s Golden Globe Awards, where One Battle is once again expected to repeat in those three categories — especially since it won’t be competing with Sinners. (Warner Bros. opted to split the spoils by sending Anderson’s film to the Best Comedy/Musical categories, while Coogler’s vampire barnburner sticks with Drama.) The film also hopes to add some acting wins to its shelf… although the CCA results suggest that may be a more challenging prospect than anticipated.
Here’s Gold Derby’s breakdown of how tonight’s wins will be felt in the first full awards cycle week of 2026.
Battle hardened
DiCaprio and Benicio Del Toro in ‘One Battle After Another’Warner Bros.
CCA voters made Anderson and friends (and us) wait a little bit before they could deliver any acceptance speeches. Entering the evening with 14 nominations — the second-most nominated film behind Sinners at 17 nods — One Battle was blanked in the acting categories, as well as the below the line races where it was eligible. Perhaps not coincidentally, that reflected how things went down at last month’s Gotham Awards, where the six-time nominated film went winless until it was named Best Feature. That points to One Battle consistently being the consensus choice for the top prize — but the various voting bodies are looking to spread the wealth down the ballot.
Best Picture
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
That trend makes One Battle the odds-on favorite in the Best Picture race, as reflected in its rock-solid No. 1 placement among Gold Derby experts and editors. (On our combined leaderboard, though, the film is sitting at No. 6, brought down by apparent skepticism among users.) Anderson is also the narrow favorite to win Best Director, leading Coogler by 88.26 percent to 88.04 percent. Notable: Jafar Panahi was absent from the CCA ballot for his Cannes-winning, It Was Just an Accident, but he’ll be back in the mix for the Golden Globes. The Iranian auteur previously bested Anderson at the Gothams and the New York Film Critics Circle and could repeat at the Globes and the Oscars if the international voters that comprise a sizable block of those two bodies break his way.
Best Director
1.
Paul Thomas Anderson
One Battle After Another
2.
3.
4.
Jafar Panahi
It Was Just an Accident
5.
Joachim Trier
Sentimental Value
Supreme on the Scene
Chalamet in ‘Marty Supreme’A24
When CCA nominations were initially unveiled in early December, there was still a question mark affixed to Marty Supreme since the Josh Safdie-directed film hadn’t played for general audiences. But that question mark was replaced by an exclamation point following a supremely successful holiday run that put the film on track to becoming A24’s first-ever $100 million earner domestically. And now that it’s clear that Chalamet’s box-office bona fides extends beyond I.P.-derived fare like Dune and Wonka, he kicks off the new year armed with new firepower in the awards race. Indeed, those commercial returns (and viral videos that made them possible) may have provided the extra boost to push him past mentor Leonardo DiCaprio and into the winners circle with CCA voters.
The two will go head-to-head again at the Globes next Sunday in the Best Film/Comedy Musical Actor race, where Chalamet currently leads DiCaprio by a healthy margin, 60.9 percent to 22.9 percent. But the Oscar odds currently favor the One Battle star by 86.8 percent to 84.7 percent. DiCaprio is hoping to add a second Best Actor statuette to his shelf exactly a decade after he scored his first win for The Revenant, while Chalamet is hoping for a first-time victory after watching The Brutalist’s Adrien Brody receive his second statue at the 2025 Oscars. If Marty Supreme does in fact shatter the $100 million ceiling, that’s gonna put Chalemet within a ping-pong paddle’s length of victory.
Best Actor
1.
Leonardo DiCaprio
One Battle After Another
2.
Timothée Chalamet
Marty Supreme
3.
Michael B. Jordan
Sinners
4.
Wagner Moura
The Secret Agent
5.
Creature feature
Jacob Elordi should be feeling pretty euphoric right about now. The Euphoria star has earned career-best notices from critics for his supporting turn as Frankenstein’s loquacious monster in Guillermo del Toro‘s version of the pioneering Mary Shelley novel, and those reviews translated into an upset Best Supporting Actor win over more heavily favored contenders like One Battle After Another’s Benicio Del Toro and Sean Penn, not to mention Sentimental Value’s Stellan Skarsgård. After steadily rising through the leaderboard rankings throughout the fall, Elordi is currently hanging out in the No. 5 spot behind all three of the aforementioned gentleman, as well as Hamnet’s Paul Mescal. This CCA victory, coupled with Elordi’s Golden Globe nomination, would seem to solidify his Top 5 standing. He also has history on his side, as every CCA pick for Best Supporting Actor over the past three decades has gone on to qualify for the same category at the Oscars. And not only that, the CCA winner has also won the Oscar for the past nine years running. Elordi could make it an even 10, especially if Del Toro and Penn are stuck in a dead-head battle for Academy votes.
Frankenstein had a good night beyond Elordi’s win, picking up three additional craft statuettes for Best Production Design, Best Costume Design and Best Hair and Makeup. That below-the-line strength was apparent in its showing on the initial Oscar shortlists, where the film received six mentions. That’s exactly the kind of support that will propel it into the 10 finalists for Best Picture on Jan. 22.
Best Supporting Actor
1.
Stellan Skarsgård
Sentimental Value
2.
3.
Sean Penn
One Battle After Another
4.
Benicio Del Toro
One Battle After Another
5.
Jacob Elordi
Frankenstein
Buckley and Madigan Reloaded
Jessie Buckley in ‘Hamnet’Focus Features
The odds are fun, but the win’s the thing. Days after a Best Actress leaderboard shake-up that saw Hamnet’s Jessie Buckley fall behind If I Had Legs I’d Kick You’s Rose Byrne for the first time this awards season, the Irish thespian scored a crucial CCA victory for Best Actress. And Buckley is set to triumph again at the Golden Globes, especially since Byrne will be competing in the Best Comedy/Musical category for a movie that’s just barely a comedy — and definitely not a musical. Rest assured that Buckley is in no danger of missing out on a Best Actress nomination, and these back-to-back statuettes will likely return her to No. 1 status by the time Oscar nods are announced. Still, Hamnet’s status as a category-slayer has definitely been challenged and while that can’t be fun for Focus Features, it does inject some Shakespearean-level drama into what had been a snoozy race.
Best Actress
1.
Rose Byrne
If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
2.
3.
Renate Reinsve
Sentimental Value
4.
5.
Chase Infiniti
One Battle After Another
Meanwhile, Amy Madigan‘s long-shot Weapons campaign definitely ain’t long-shot anymore, as the Hollywood veteran nabbed the CCA’s Best Actress statuette over One Battle’s Teyana Taylor and Wicked’s Ariana Grande. And Madigan will be accepting another award on Tuesday when the New York Film Critics Circle hands her their Best Supporting Actress honor. A win at the Golden Globes next Sunday would complete the trifecta and bump her into the No. 1 spot on our Oscar leaderboard over Taylor, who is currently ahead by a mere 87.3 percent to 86.4 percent. Madigan would be the second performer in Hollywood history to be named Best Supporting Actress for a horror movie; the first was Ruth Gordon, who won for Rosemary’s Baby back in 1969. After tonight, she has her eyes… on the prize.
Best Supporting Actress
1.
Teyana Taylor
One Battle After Another
2.
3.
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas
Sentimental Value
4.
Elle Fanning
Sentimental Value
5.
Ariana Grande
Wicked: For Good
Note: Golden Globes producer Dick Clark Productions is owned by Penske Media Eldridge, a joint venture between Eldridge and Penske Media Corporation, which owns Gold Derby.