It’s a fun time in the big leagues right now. So many young starters are getting their first chances. Jacob Misiorowski, Chase Burns, Mick Abel and more exciting young arms will debut on these rankings. Each has a chance to change fortunes for their teams (and your fantasy teams). I wrote more in-depth on many of them recently, but this ranking provides us a visual representation of who I’d rather have.
The rookies are tantalizing. But you also have enough sample that you can take a look around and see which pitchers have made some changes and are pitching differently — pitchers, more than hitters, can change their potential upside as a pitcher on a dime if they find the right new pitch or the right mechanical adjustment. And an easy way to capture changes like this is simply to compare the pitchers’ recent Stuff+ to their early season numbers.
Here are the biggest Stuff+ gainers, April to June, minimum 10 innings pitched in both buckets.
Biggest Stuff+ surgers among starters
MIL
110
99
10
CIN
110
100
10
BOS
103
93
10
BAL
104
95
9
STL
97
89
9
NYM
107
101
7
LAA
99
93
7
TEX
112
106
6
CLE
109
103
6
PHI
116
111
6
• Chad Patrick is just throwing harder, up from 93.4 to 95 mph on the four-seamer in June, but he also leaned into his sweeper shape on his slider and increased its sideways movement and decreased its drop — he may finally have a great breaking ball to go with his very fastball-heavy approach.
• Nick Lodolo is also throwing harder, but only about a half-tick above where he was in April. His release point has changed subtly, too, which would change his stuff in ways that are not immediately obvious.
• Brayan Bello has a completely new pitch, a cutter that rates better than any of his non-sinker pitches. If he can get his changeup back, there’s still really good potential here.
• Charlie Morton is back, it seems. His velocity is much better recently.
• After a late dip in April, Andre Pallante‘s velocity has stabilized around 95 mph, with his slider now a complete tick harder than it was in April. He’s also getting a lot more sweep on his curve and settling in with that pitch.
• Clay Holmes is throwing his cutter and four-seamer a little less than he did early on, and though those pitches have been key for his success, the model says he should throw them sparingly.
• After discovering that his mechanics had changed a little without knowing it, Yusei Kikuchi raised his arm angle slightly a few starts into the season. That’s helped him recover some stuff on the secondaries, plus he’s throwing his curve a little more than his changeup recently.
• Jacob deGrom has upped his arm angle a little and is throwing harder. It seems like he’s feeling healthy after a bump in the road early on.
• Tanner Bibee told me that he was fiddling around with his arm angle last year, trying to find a place that felt good but also gave him the movement he wanted on the slider. Now his arm angle is back up to closer to where it was in 2023, and he’s found a new breaking ball he’s in love with.
• Zack Wheeler … just a menace out there on the mound. Always trying to get better. This time, he’s throwing the sinker more, which the model likes.
The flip side of the list isn’t as much fun — it’s littered with pitchers that turned up injured (Tylor Megill, Justin Verlander and Hunter Greene) and had rough patches (David Festa, Logan Evans and Jonathan Cannon), though in some cases the changes have resulted in possibly better pitch mixes (Shane Baz and his new cutter, Festa’s new spot on the rubber).
Figuring in how to factor these ups and downs is, at first at least, the job of the projections, so the OOPSY projections and their stuff-driven strikeout and ERA numbers are included within. But then I’ve included my own analysis on top of the models, and I play in 15-team leagues with limited injury lists for the most part. That’s why you’ll find some good pitchers dinged — they’re either hurt or I think they might be a higher risk to be hurt going forward. You’ll also find the hurt pitchers together in little mini-tiers, as I find that helps me include them but also separate them from the healthy pitchers.
Lastly, I’ll put my rankings here on the Google doc, where I also drop some minor-league Stuff+ numbers, and other goodies from time to time. (For the minor leaguers in the rankings, their listed Stuff+ is from the Triple-A model, which has to approximate arm angle but is otherwise comparable to the major league model.)
Good luck!
Team ARI ATH ATL BAL BOS CHC CHW CIN CLE CWS DET HOU KCR LAA LAD MIA MIL MIN NYM NYY PHI PIT SDP SEA SFG STL TBR TEX TOR WSN
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It’s a little weird that a power pitcher like Tarik Skubal is throwing his changeup nearly 40 percent of the time like he is, but it’s working. Batters are “hitting” .152 and slugging .172 off the pitch right now. And if they find any success, the best pitcher in the league will just find a different pitch to feature. They’re all so good.
It’s a little weird that a power pitcher like Tarik Skubal is throwing his changeup nearly 40 percent of the time like he is, but it’s working. Batters are “hitting” .152 and slugging .172 off the pitch right now. And if they find any success, the best pitcher in the league will just find a different pitch to feature. They’re all so good.
It’s a little weird that a power pitcher like Tarik Skubal is throwing his changeup nearly 40 percent of the time like he is, but it’s working. Batters are “hitting” .152 and slugging .172 off the pitch right now. And if they find any success, the best pitcher in the league will just find a different pitch to feature. They’re all so good.
The best keep working at it, trying to get better when it seems there’s no growth left. In the case of Zack Wheeler, he’s throwing his model-pleasing sinker as the season moves on, at the cost of his cutter for now. But the models tell you the same thing that the eyes do: he has pitches he can command, and each is either above-average or elite by stuff. Could this be the year he finally wins the Cy?
The best keep working at it, trying to get better when it seems there’s no growth left. In the case of Zack Wheeler, he’s throwing his model-pleasing sinker as the season moves on, at the cost of his cutter for now. But the models tell you the same thing that the eyes do: he has pitches he can command, and each is either above-average or elite by stuff. Could this be the year he finally wins the Cy?
The best keep working at it, trying to get better when it seems there’s no growth left. In the case of Zack Wheeler, he’s throwing his model-pleasing sinker as the season moves on, at the cost of his cutter for now. But the models tell you the same thing that the eyes do: he has pitches he can command, and each is either above-average or elite by stuff. Could this be the year he finally wins the Cy?
A recent bump in the road was notable for a couple reasons. For one, it was due to a little regression in the stuff on his four-seamer, which, combined with a reluctance to go high in the zone, led to a couple of mediocre games in a row. However! He didn’t give up a Barrel in either game. Mostly, he got singled to death. Skenes has the stuff to suppress homers and balls in play, so he has probably the highest floor in the game. But every once in a while, a team will string together some soft hits and get to him.
A recent bump in the road was notable for a couple reasons. For one, it was due to a little regression in the stuff on his four-seamer, which, combined with a reluctance to go high in the zone, led to a couple of mediocre games in a row. However! He didn’t give up a Barrel in either game. Mostly, he got singled to death. Skenes has the stuff to suppress homers and balls in play, so he has probably the highest floor in the game. But every once in a while, a team will string together some soft hits and get to him.
A recent bump in the road was notable for a couple reasons. For one, it was due to a little regression in the stuff on his four-seamer, which, combined with a reluctance to go high in the zone, led to a couple of mediocre games in a row. However! He didn’t give up a Barrel in either game. Mostly, he got singled to death. Skenes has the stuff to suppress homers and balls in play, so he has probably the highest floor in the game. But every once in a while, a team will string together some soft hits and get to him.
Garret Crochet is rounding into Cy-type form. He started with two dominant pitches in his four-seam and cutter, but now he’s got the sinker going (.304 slugging allowed) and he’s even throwing back-door sweepers to righties (.111 batting average, .136 slugging allowed overall). He did lose a tick since last year, but he’s making up for it by expanding the arsenal and showing surprising touch for a power pitcher.
Garret Crochet is rounding into Cy-type form. He started with two dominant pitches in his four-seam and cutter, but now he’s got the sinker going (.304 slugging allowed) and he’s even throwing back-door sweepers to righties (.111 batting average, .136 slugging allowed overall). He did lose a tick since last year, but he’s making up for it by expanding the arsenal and showing surprising touch for a power pitcher.
Garret Crochet is rounding into Cy-type form. He started with two dominant pitches in his four-seam and cutter, but now he’s got the sinker going (.304 slugging allowed) and he’s even throwing back-door sweepers to righties (.111 batting average, .136 slugging allowed overall). He did lose a tick since last year, but he’s making up for it by expanding the arsenal and showing surprising touch for a power pitcher.
One bad game against the Dodgers. That’s it for low points for Max Fried this year. It might have convinced him to throw his sinker less, as he’s about halved the use of that pitch recently, but that doesn’t matter much. He still has three fastballs that are elite by Stuff+ (him and Wheeler, and that’s the end of the list), and three secondaries that are the same over the course of the season. Maybe the changeup comes and goes a little, but he just made big improvements to that this year, so it’s to be expected. Excellent, large-arsenal pitcher with stuff and command.
One bad game against the Dodgers. That’s it for low points for Max Fried this year. It might have convinced him to throw his sinker less, as he’s about halved the use of that pitch recently, but that doesn’t matter much. He still has three fastballs that are elite by Stuff+ (him and Wheeler, and that’s the end of the list), and three secondaries that are the same over the course of the season. Maybe the changeup comes and goes a little, but he just made big improvements to that this year, so it’s to be expected. Excellent, large-arsenal pitcher with stuff and command.
One bad game against the Dodgers. That’s it for low points for Max Fried this year. It might have convinced him to throw his sinker less, as he’s about halved the use of that pitch recently, but that doesn’t matter much. He still has three fastballs that are elite by Stuff+ (him and Wheeler, and that’s the end of the list), and three secondaries that are the same over the course of the season. Maybe the changeup comes and goes a little, but he just made big improvements to that this year, so it’s to be expected. Excellent, large-arsenal pitcher with stuff and command.
The cutter that Logan Webb is throwing more isn’t a model-pleaser by itself. Cutters are supposed to have glove-side movement and his still moves towards his arm side. But it moves 10 inches less to the arm side than his sinker, and provides a bridge pitch in the middle that Webb can lean on if hitters are sitting on either of his more east-to-west pitches. Webb is striking out more lefties than ever, and showing his best strikeout rate — and that was all that stood between him and elite fantasy production.
The cutter that Logan Webb is throwing more isn’t a model-pleaser by itself. Cutters are supposed to have glove-side movement and his still moves towards his arm side. But it moves 10 inches less to the arm side than his sinker, and provides a bridge pitch in the middle that Webb can lean on if hitters are sitting on either of his more east-to-west pitches. Webb is striking out more lefties than ever, and showing his best strikeout rate — and that was all that stood between him and elite fantasy production.
The cutter that Logan Webb is throwing more isn’t a model-pleaser by itself. Cutters are supposed to have glove-side movement and his still moves towards his arm side. But it moves 10 inches less to the arm side than his sinker, and provides a bridge pitch in the middle that Webb can lean on if hitters are sitting on either of his more east-to-west pitches. Webb is striking out more lefties than ever, and showing his best strikeout rate — and that was all that stood between him and elite fantasy production.
The stuff is not quite as elite recently as it was early in the season for Hunter Brown. His curve has lost a little velocity and drop recently, and that’s his best secondary by far. His command has been faltering a little since mid-May, too. All of these things have been true for the last six starts and he has an ERA near 1.00 with a nearly four-to-one strikeout-to-walk ratio. Hmm… Guess he’s just elite now.
The stuff is not quite as elite recently as it was early in the season for Hunter Brown. His curve has lost a little velocity and drop recently, and that’s his best secondary by far. His command has been faltering a little since mid-May, too. All of these things have been true for the last six starts and he has an ERA near 1.00 with a nearly four-to-one strikeout-to-walk ratio. Hmm… Guess he’s just elite now.
The stuff is not quite as elite recently as it was early in the season for Hunter Brown. His curve has lost a little velocity and drop recently, and that’s his best secondary by far. His command has been faltering a little since mid-May, too. All of these things have been true for the last six starts and he has an ERA near 1.00 with a nearly four-to-one strikeout-to-walk ratio. Hmm… Guess he’s just elite now.
His fastball velocity bounces around a little. His slider is a little erractic when it comes to speed and shape. Stuff+ really likes his splitter as clearly the best pitch he throws. How much does that stuff matter when you’ve got a pristine strikeout to walk ratio and three bad games out of 16? There’s at least anecdotal evidence that an elite splitter can help a pitcher be worth more than the sum of his parts.
His fastball velocity bounces around a little. His slider is a little erractic when it comes to speed and shape. Stuff+ really likes his splitter as clearly the best pitch he throws. How much does that stuff matter when you’ve got a pristine strikeout to walk ratio and three bad games out of 16? There’s at least anecdotal evidence that an elite splitter can help a pitcher be worth more than the sum of his parts.
His fastball velocity bounces around a little. His slider is a little erractic when it comes to speed and shape. Stuff+ really likes his splitter as clearly the best pitch he throws. How much does that stuff matter when you’ve got a pristine strikeout to walk ratio and three bad games out of 16? There’s at least anecdotal evidence that an elite splitter can help a pitcher be worth more than the sum of his parts.
The story was that Jacob deGrom would dial it back, not throw as hard, stay healthy, and still dominate. That’s … not quite how it worked out. He did come into the season with slightly lower velocity, and his numbers (other than strikeout rate) have been nearly vintage, but after a game in which he failed to strike out a single batter for the first time in his career, it looks like deGrom chucked the plan. Since that game, his velocity on the fastball has gone up a little with every consecutive outing. Now he’s sitting 98+, which he hasn’t done since 2023. That’s good for the results. The health … we’ll see.
The story was that Jacob deGrom would dial it back, not throw as hard, stay healthy, and still dominate. That’s … not quite how it worked out. He did come into the season with slightly lower velocity, and his numbers (other than strikeout rate) have been nearly vintage, but after a game in which he failed to strike out a single batter for the first time in his career, it looks like deGrom chucked the plan. Since that game, his velocity on the fastball has gone up a little with every consecutive outing. Now he’s sitting 98+, which he hasn’t done since 2023. That’s good for the results. The health … we’ll see.
The story was that Jacob deGrom would dial it back, not throw as hard, stay healthy, and still dominate. That’s … not quite how it worked out. He did come into the season with slightly lower velocity, and his numbers (other than strikeout rate) have been nearly vintage, but after a game in which he failed to strike out a single batter for the first time in his career, it looks like deGrom chucked the plan. Since that game, his velocity on the fastball has gone up a little with every consecutive outing. Now he’s sitting 98+, which he hasn’t done since 2023. That’s good for the results. The health … we’ll see.
The results in terms of earned runs on the field have not been stellar since Logan Gilbert came back from his forearm injury. But he’s struck out 23 batters against two walks, which doesn’t normally produce an ERA near six. His velocity has been fine, his league-leading extension better than ever, his pitch mix largely unchanged — he should slot right back in where he used to rank, shouldn’t he?
The results in terms of earned runs on the field have not been stellar since Logan Gilbert came back from his forearm injury. But he’s struck out 23 batters against two walks, which doesn’t normally produce an ERA near six. His velocity has been fine, his league-leading extension better than ever, his pitch mix largely unchanged — he should slot right back in where he used to rank, shouldn’t he?
The results in terms of earned runs on the field have not been stellar since Logan Gilbert came back from his forearm injury. But he’s struck out 23 batters against two walks, which doesn’t normally produce an ERA near six. His velocity has been fine, his league-leading extension better than ever, his pitch mix largely unchanged — he should slot right back in where he used to rank, shouldn’t he?
George Kirby burst back onto the scene with great velocity, seemingly determined to show us all that the stuff was still there. But he located poorly and had two bad starts in a row. Let’s all reset to that third start. Since then, he’s been the Kirby we knew and loved. Around average stuff for a starter, but with excellent locations, a 25 percent strikeout rate, and a 5 percent walk rate. He’ll be fine — the only question with him (and Bryan Woo, really), is if we can just assume they’ll pitch every start from now till the end of the season.
George Kirby burst back onto the scene with great velocity, seemingly determined to show us all that the stuff was still there. But he located poorly and had two bad starts in a row. Let’s all reset to that third start. Since then, he’s been the Kirby we knew and loved. Around average stuff for a starter, but with excellent locations, a 25 percent strikeout rate, and a 5 percent walk rate. He’ll be fine — the only question with him (and Bryan Woo, really), is if we can just assume they’ll pitch every start from now till the end of the season.
George Kirby burst back onto the scene with great velocity, seemingly determined to show us all that the stuff was still there. But he located poorly and had two bad starts in a row. Let’s all reset to that third start. Since then, he’s been the Kirby we knew and loved. Around average stuff for a starter, but with excellent locations, a 25 percent strikeout rate, and a 5 percent walk rate. He’ll be fine — the only question with him (and Bryan Woo, really), is if we can just assume they’ll pitch every start from now till the end of the season.
Nearly three-quarters of the pitches Bryan Woo throws are fastballs, the most in baseball. He’ll alternate gyro-sliders and sweepers against righties, but it’s mostly playing the two (excellent) fastballs off of each other, a little like a low slot Hunter Brown. Against lefties, it gets a little tougher because he can’t use the sinker as much — it’s not an ideal pitch for opposite hands. So he has to mix in the meh changeup, and that’s why lefties slug 150 points higher against him than righties. But when righties are slugging .286 … that’s how you sneak into the top 15 without an above-average secondary offering. Now, the worry is mostly that he’ll hit his career high in innings sometime at the end of this month.
Nearly three-quarters of the pitches Bryan Woo throws are fastballs, the most in baseball. He’ll alternate gyro-sliders and sweepers against righties, but it’s mostly playing the two (excellent) fastballs off of each other, a little like a low slot Hunter Brown. Against lefties, it gets a little tougher because he can’t use the sinker as much — it’s not an ideal pitch for opposite hands. So he has to mix in the meh changeup, and that’s why lefties slug 150 points higher against him than righties. But when righties are slugging .286 … that’s how you sneak into the top 15 without an above-average secondary offering. Now, the worry is mostly that he’ll hit his career high in innings sometime at the end of this month.
Nearly three-quarters of the pitches Bryan Woo throws are fastballs, the most in baseball. He’ll alternate gyro-sliders and sweepers against righties, but it’s mostly playing the two (excellent) fastballs off of each other, a little like a low slot Hunter Brown. Against lefties, it gets a little tougher because he can’t use the sinker as much — it’s not an ideal pitch for opposite hands. So he has to mix in the meh changeup, and that’s why lefties slug 150 points higher against him than righties. But when righties are slugging .286 … that’s how you sneak into the top 15 without an above-average secondary offering. Now, the worry is mostly that he’ll hit his career high in innings sometime at the end of this month.
Joe Ryan is pretty much dialed right now. With a top-10 strikeout rate and a four-pitch mix (five maybe? He’s been throwing the curve again), he looks like he has it all figured out. His projections are solid, his schedule is good, and his team may have some issues but should help him deliver enough wins. So, why isn’t he higher? It’s that projected innings total. He’s never passed the 162-inning threshold and he ended last year with an injury.
Joe Ryan is pretty much dialed right now. With a top-10 strikeout rate and a four-pitch mix (five maybe? He’s been throwing the curve again), he looks like he has it all figured out. His projections are solid, his schedule is good, and his team may have some issues but should help him deliver enough wins. So, why isn’t he higher? It’s that projected innings total. He’s never passed the 162-inning threshold and he ended last year with an injury.
Joe Ryan is pretty much dialed right now. With a top-10 strikeout rate and a four-pitch mix (five maybe? He’s been throwing the curve again), he looks like he has it all figured out. His projections are solid, his schedule is good, and his team may have some issues but should help him deliver enough wins. So, why isn’t he higher? It’s that projected innings total. He’s never passed the 162-inning threshold and he ended last year with an injury.
For the last three seasons in a row, Freddy Peralta’s first half ERA has been a run-plus higher than his second half ERA. That sort of thing is not predictive, of course, and in 2021, it was the other way around. But it does tell the tale of a really good pitcher that sometimes loses his mechanics and goes into a funk. He’s been the 24th-best pitcher so far this season, so if one of those stretches comes, this ranking will prove too high.
For the last three seasons in a row, Freddy Peralta’s first half ERA has been a run-plus higher than his second half ERA. That sort of thing is not predictive, of course, and in 2021, it was the other way around. But it does tell the tale of a really good pitcher that sometimes loses his mechanics and goes into a funk. He’s been the 24th-best pitcher so far this season, so if one of those stretches comes, this ranking will prove too high.
For the last three seasons in a row, Freddy Peralta’s first half ERA has been a run-plus higher than his second half ERA. That sort of thing is not predictive, of course, and in 2021, it was the other way around. But it does tell the tale of a really good pitcher that sometimes loses his mechanics and goes into a funk. He’s been the 24th-best pitcher so far this season, so if one of those stretches comes, this ranking will prove too high.
Framber Valdez just keeps on ticking. The strikeout rate — and the occasional lapses in command that can keep his WHIP up a bit — keep him from the top 15 usually, but he’s just about the most consistent and best fantasy No. 2 starter in baseball. That curveball and sinker combo is just so good.
Framber Valdez just keeps on ticking. The strikeout rate — and the occasional lapses in command that can keep his WHIP up a bit — keep him from the top 15 usually, but he’s just about the most consistent and best fantasy No. 2 starter in baseball. That curveball and sinker combo is just so good.
Framber Valdez just keeps on ticking. The strikeout rate — and the occasional lapses in command that can keep his WHIP up a bit — keep him from the top 15 usually, but he’s just about the most consistent and best fantasy No. 2 starter in baseball. That curveball and sinker combo is just so good.
No cutter, no problem for Cristopher Sánchez, who has dominated opponents and improved his strikeout rate on pure velocity alone this year. Every projection system is calling for regression in that strikeout rate, though — this one less than most. Statistically, he looks like a Framber Valdez clone from here, even if Sánchez throws a changeup instead of a curve and doesn’t quite get as many balls on the ground.
No cutter, no problem for Cristopher Sánchez, who has dominated opponents and improved his strikeout rate on pure velocity alone this year. Every projection system is calling for regression in that strikeout rate, though — this one less than most. Statistically, he looks like a Framber Valdez clone from here, even if Sánchez throws a changeup instead of a curve and doesn’t quite get as many balls on the ground.
No cutter, no problem for Cristopher Sánchez, who has dominated opponents and improved his strikeout rate on pure velocity alone this year. Every projection system is calling for regression in that strikeout rate, though — this one less than most. Statistically, he looks like a Framber Valdez clone from here, even if Sánchez throws a changeup instead of a curve and doesn’t quite get as many balls on the ground.
The stuff models say that Robbie Ray is a one-pitch guy, a lefty with an elite fastball despite average velocity, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. Between adding five inches of drop to his curveball and completely altering his changeup (it’s Tarik Skubal’s grip now), he’s pushed his secondaries to the point where he has his choice of three average-ish options when he’s not throwing the fastball. That’s why the slugging on his fastball is lower than it’s been in a decade, and why he looks a lot more like that 2021 Cy Young version than he’s looked in a while.
The stuff models say that Robbie Ray is a one-pitch guy, a lefty with an elite fastball despite average velocity, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. Between adding five inches of drop to his curveball and completely altering his changeup (it’s Tarik Skubal’s grip now), he’s pushed his secondaries to the point where he has his choice of three average-ish options when he’s not throwing the fastball. That’s why the slugging on his fastball is lower than it’s been in a decade, and why he looks a lot more like that 2021 Cy Young version than he’s looked in a while.
The stuff models say that Robbie Ray is a one-pitch guy, a lefty with an elite fastball despite average velocity, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. Between adding five inches of drop to his curveball and completely altering his changeup (it’s Tarik Skubal’s grip now), he’s pushed his secondaries to the point where he has his choice of three average-ish options when he’s not throwing the fastball. That’s why the slugging on his fastball is lower than it’s been in a decade, and why he looks a lot more like that 2021 Cy Young version than he’s looked in a while.
His curve has four inches more drop this year, and his sinker a whopping 12 inches more drop, and he’s throwing a more balanced mix this year, but just as important is that Carlos Rodón is feeling good health-wise, and commanding the fastball better than he has since he was pitching for the Giants. That’s helped him reduce the home run rate while keeping his always-excellent strikeout and walk totals in place. Other than some ball in play regression (he’s allowed a .230 batting average on balls in play against a .288 career number), and the ubiquitous health concerns, there’s not really a reason to doubt the lefty.
His curve has four inches more drop this year, and his sinker a whopping 12 inches more drop, and he’s throwing a more balanced mix this year, but just as important is that Carlos Rodón is feeling good health-wise, and commanding the fastball better than he has since he was pitching for the Giants. That’s helped him reduce the home run rate while keeping his always-excellent strikeout and walk totals in place. Other than some ball in play regression (he’s allowed a .230 batting average on balls in play against a .288 career number), and the ubiquitous health concerns, there’s not really a reason to doubt the lefty.
His curve has four inches more drop this year, and his sinker a whopping 12 inches more drop, and he’s throwing a more balanced mix this year, but just as important is that Carlos Rodón is feeling good health-wise, and commanding the fastball better than he has since he was pitching for the Giants. That’s helped him reduce the home run rate while keeping his always-excellent strikeout and walk totals in place. Other than some ball in play regression (he’s allowed a .230 batting average on balls in play against a .288 career number), and the ubiquitous health concerns, there’s not really a reason to doubt the lefty.
Dylan Cease’s rankings have caused some consternation in the comments. Makes sense, because his two-pitch mix with shaky command seems to produce a bad inning in every start, and he hasn’t even been a top 100 pitcher so far this year. But ERA is not predictive, and pitchers with his level of strikeouts minus walks last year put up a 3.42 ERA. He’s 12th among qualified arms in that stat this year. I’m still siding with the projections here. If it matters, he did tell me recently that he’s figured something out with his mechanics and feels like he’s going to go on a dominant stretch soon.
Dylan Cease’s rankings have caused some consternation in the comments. Makes sense, because his two-pitch mix with shaky command seems to produce a bad inning in every start, and he hasn’t even been a top 100 pitcher so far this year. But ERA is not predictive, and pitchers with his level of strikeouts minus walks last year put up a 3.42 ERA. He’s 12th among qualified arms in that stat this year. I’m still siding with the projections here. If it matters, he did tell me recently that he’s figured something out with his mechanics and feels like he’s going to go on a dominant stretch soon.
Dylan Cease’s rankings have caused some consternation in the comments. Makes sense, because his two-pitch mix with shaky command seems to produce a bad inning in every start, and he hasn’t even been a top 100 pitcher so far this year. But ERA is not predictive, and pitchers with his level of strikeouts minus walks last year put up a 3.42 ERA. He’s 12th among qualified arms in that stat this year. I’m still siding with the projections here. If it matters, he did tell me recently that he’s figured something out with his mechanics and feels like he’s going to go on a dominant stretch soon.
Usually with Tommy John surgery, the stuff comes back first and the command second. See: Sandy Alcantara and Eury Pérez as examples this year. With Spencer Strider this year, the models say both the stuff and command aren’t back, and you can easily see why — his vertical movement velocity on the fastball and slider are nowhere near his peak numbers, and even if the velocity is climbing some, the shapes aren’t improving. Still, the strikeouts and walks are pretty good, and that’s keeping his projections afloat. We might just get an inconsistent but overall pretty good Strider this year, which is a weird outcome.
Usually with Tommy John surgery, the stuff comes back first and the command second. See: Sandy Alcantara and Eury Pérez as examples this year. With Spencer Strider this year, the models say both the stuff and command aren’t back, and you can easily see why — his vertical movement velocity on the fastball and slider are nowhere near his peak numbers, and even if the velocity is climbing some, the shapes aren’t improving. Still, the strikeouts and walks are pretty good, and that’s keeping his projections afloat. We might just get an inconsistent but overall pretty good Strider this year, which is a weird outcome.
Usually with Tommy John surgery, the stuff comes back first and the command second. See: Sandy Alcantara and Eury Pérez as examples this year. With Spencer Strider this year, the models say both the stuff and command aren’t back, and you can easily see why — his vertical movement velocity on the fastball and slider are nowhere near his peak numbers, and even if the velocity is climbing some, the shapes aren’t improving. Still, the strikeouts and walks are pretty good, and that’s keeping his projections afloat. We might just get an inconsistent but overall pretty good Strider this year, which is a weird outcome.
Maybe it’s hard to sit 100 mph on the fastball as a starter and stay healthy all year? Because otherwise Hunter Greene is so nasty he could be ranked ten spots higher. He’s throwing bullpens again, and it hasn’t really been an arm problem (yet?) so it’s time to start moving him up the ranks again. But anyone this this much stuff seems to be perpetually standing at the precipice.
Maybe it’s hard to sit 100 mph on the fastball as a starter and stay healthy all year? Because otherwise Hunter Greene is so nasty he could be ranked ten spots higher. He’s throwing bullpens again, and it hasn’t really been an arm problem (yet?) so it’s time to start moving him up the ranks again. But anyone this this much stuff seems to be perpetually standing at the precipice.
Maybe it’s hard to sit 100 mph on the fastball as a starter and stay healthy all year? Because otherwise Hunter Greene is so nasty he could be ranked ten spots higher. He’s throwing bullpens again, and it hasn’t really been an arm problem (yet?) so it’s time to start moving him up the ranks again. But anyone this this much stuff seems to be perpetually standing at the precipice.
The strikeout rate isn’t great, and Luis Castillo may not have the ceiling of many of the names around him on this list, but man does he have floor. Floor in spades. Floor coming out of his pockets. Since he left the Reds, he’s mostly had a low-to-mid threes ERA with strikeout rates (and velocity) that climb as the weather warms. Same old story — Castillo likes the summer.
The strikeout rate isn’t great, and Luis Castillo may not have the ceiling of many of the names around him on this list, but man does he have floor. Floor in spades. Floor coming out of his pockets. Since he left the Reds, he’s mostly had a low-to-mid threes ERA with strikeout rates (and velocity) that climb as the weather warms. Same old story — Castillo likes the summer.
The strikeout rate isn’t great, and Luis Castillo may not have the ceiling of many of the names around him on this list, but man does he have floor. Floor in spades. Floor coming out of his pockets. Since he left the Reds, he’s mostly had a low-to-mid threes ERA with strikeout rates (and velocity) that climb as the weather warms. Same old story — Castillo likes the summer.
It’s a little worrisome that Drew Rasmussen is only striking out 22 percent of the batters he sees (which is below average), and that his fastball velocity matches the worst of his career. Stuff+ says he’s all the way back, though, and he had this same strikeout rate (and fastball velocity) in 2022, when he put up nearly 150 innings of a 2.84 ERA and a pristine WHIP. Seems like he’s headed in the same direction this year. As for the short outings recently, he’s got a hard cap of 150 innings and was ahead of pace, so it’s a temporary slowing around the All Star break, not a permanent change in role.
It’s a little worrisome that Drew Rasmussen is only striking out 22 percent of the batters he sees (which is below average), and that his fastball velocity matches the worst of his career. Stuff+ says he’s all the way back, though, and he had this same strikeout rate (and fastball velocity) in 2022, when he put up nearly 150 innings of a 2.84 ERA and a pristine WHIP. Seems like he’s headed in the same direction this year. As for the short outings recently, he’s got a hard cap of 150 innings and was ahead of pace, so it’s a temporary slowing around the All Star break, not a permanent change in role.
It’s a little worrisome that Drew Rasmussen is only striking out 22 percent of the batters he sees (which is below average), and that his fastball velocity matches the worst of his career. Stuff+ says he’s all the way back, though, and he had this same strikeout rate (and fastball velocity) in 2022, when he put up nearly 150 innings of a 2.84 ERA and a pristine WHIP. Seems like he’s headed in the same direction this year. As for the short outings recently, he’s got a hard cap of 150 innings and was ahead of pace, so it’s a temporary slowing around the All Star break, not a permanent change in role.
With league-leading tantalizing stuff and league-bottom command, Jacob Misiorowski may end up testing our patience from start to start. But when the projections and the stuff metrics are this good, damn the torpedoes, you gotta join in. Sitting around 100 on the fastball with great shape? A mid-90s slider? A 90-mph curveball? Metrics that scream “young Jacob deGrom without command”? I’m in. I’ve always been in.
With league-leading tantalizing stuff and league-bottom command, Jacob Misiorowski may end up testing our patience from start to start. But when the projections and the stuff metrics are this good, damn the torpedoes, you gotta join in. Sitting around 100 on the fastball with great shape? A mid-90s slider? A 90-mph curveball? Metrics that scream “young Jacob deGrom without command”? I’m in. I’ve always been in.
With league-leading tantalizing stuff and league-bottom command, Jacob Misiorowski may end up testing our patience from start to start. But when the projections and the stuff metrics are this good, damn the torpedoes, you gotta join in. Sitting around 100 on the fastball with great shape? A mid-90s slider? A 90-mph curveball? Metrics that scream “young Jacob deGrom without command”? I’m in. I’ve always been in.
Like Spencer Strider, Tyler Glasnow has seen his stuff and command affected by injury this year, but he has also managed to at least strike out batters at a near-usual rate. Unlike Strider, Glasnow’s injuries this year have seemed unconventional, and in the context of the Dodger righty’s career, that’s nerve-wracking. And yet, here he is, on the cusp of being back, fresh off a rehab stint … with poor numbers. He’s ranked this high based on his upside and proximity, but the floor is much lower than the next 10 or even 20 pitchers on the list.
Like Spencer Strider, Tyler Glasnow has seen his stuff and command affected by injury this year, but he has also managed to at least strike out batters at a near-usual rate. Unlike Strider, Glasnow’s injuries this year have seemed unconventional, and in the context of the Dodger righty’s career, that’s nerve-wracking. And yet, here he is, on the cusp of being back, fresh off a rehab stint … with poor numbers. He’s ranked this high based on his upside and proximity, but the floor is much lower than the next 10 or even 20 pitchers on the list.
Like Spencer Strider, Tyler Glasnow has seen his stuff and command affected by injury this year, but he has also managed to at least strike out batters at a near-usual rate. Unlike Strider, Glasnow’s injuries this year have seemed unconventional, and in the context of the Dodger righty’s career, that’s nerve-wracking. And yet, here he is, on the cusp of being back, fresh off a rehab stint … with poor numbers. He’s ranked this high based on his upside and proximity, but the floor is much lower than the next 10 or even 20 pitchers on the list.
(Photo illustration: Demetrius Robinson / The Athletic; Top photos of Carlos Rodón, Jacob Misiorowski and Shane Baz: Patrick McDermott, Mike Stobe, Julio Aguilar / Getty Images)