Few modern models of labor flows have incorporated the assumption of sticky wages, which is less meaningful when inflation is low. But introducing an unexpected increase in inflation into the researchers’ model produced effects similar to those seen in the US economy after 2021.
The model predicts that higher prices reduce the value of workers’ wages. Some workers may respond by renegotiating their contracts, and others may find better-paying positions, leading to higher turnover.
At the same time, because wages don’t rise as fast as inflation, labor effectively becomes cheaper for companies. This leads them to post more job openings, and because most people filling those roles are switching from an existing job, the unemployment rate holds steady. What looks like a hot market is not actually drawing in new workers. Rather, “it’s like a game of musical chairs,” Hurst says.
To validate the model’s predictions, the researchers looked at historical data and observed that the vacancy-to-unemployment rate went up during inflationary periods between 1950 and 2019. The same was true during Argentina’s skyrocketing inflation of the early 2000s.
This was the main reason that workers across all income levels experienced a large decline in welfare over this COVID period, note Afrouzi, Blanco, Drenik, and Hurst. Specifically, when inflation is accounted for, welfare losses amounted to about 75 percent of monthly real income for the bottom 10 percent of workers and 110 percent for those in the top 10 percent. On average, the researchers calculate, the typical worker lost a month’s worth of wages. “Imagine you just take one-twelfth of your yearly salary and throw it away—you could see why workers were upset,” says Hurst.
On the bright side, because inflation made labor cheaper, companies were less likely to lay off workers. Cheaper labor also helped create record corporate profits.
During periods of inflation, policymakers and other experts should be cautious about assuming that a high number of vacancies relative to job seekers signals a hot market, says Hurst. Instead, he advises, treat that metric as one among many and remember that inflation could be causing the labor market to only appear tight.