Throughout the season I’ll be breaking down the numbers behind the race for each major player award: the Hart, the Norris, the Calder, the Selke, the Vezina, the Art Ross and the Rocket Richard. Numbers of course aren’t everything, but they add much-needed context to the awards race and can help shine a light on players deserving of more recognition while adding caveats to other players that may have some warts. This post will present the top 10 for each category based on a set criteria of guidelines. There is plenty of room for discussion and debate within (and outside) those guidelines.

Welcome to the second edition of this year’s NHL Awards Watch, conveniently timed at the league’s halfway point. That makes it a great time to check in where each of the awards races currently stand — and boy do we actually have some races this season.

The Hart, Norris, Selke and Vezina all look spicy after the first half and while each race has a clear front-runner, the gap doesn’t seem nearly wide enough in any race to crown a victor just yet.

Everything can still change in the second half, but for now we’ve got a lot of interesting things to watch across the board. Based on my interpretation of the numbers, here’s how each of the key races currently shake out.

Data as of Jan. 4

Hart Trophy

Given to the player judged to be the most valuable to his team.
Criteria: Skaters ranked by Net Rating percentile relative to position.

As almost anyone would’ve expected before the season, this is a two-man race between the two best players in the world. Connor McDavid started slow by his standards, but has picked up some serious heat over the last month, enough to nearly catch Nathan MacKinnon in the scoring race.

As I say often, though, the Hart trophy is not the Art Ross trophy. If this is about total value and not just points, I’m still leaning MacKinnon. The main reason for that is he’s been other-worldly at five-on-five, where the Avalanche have outscored teams an absurd 58-16 with MacKinnon on the ice. That’s a plus-42 differential that already ranks sixth since 2007-08. It helps to play with a superteam, but it’s still MacKinnon driving that bus and it’s the main reason he still holds a 3.7-goal edge over McDavid. That, and personally scoring 10 more goals.

To McDavid’s credit, some of that can be attributed to good fortune. McDavid’s 56.6 percent expected goals rate isn’t far off MacKinnon’s 59.3 percent and is arguably just as impressive given the difference in team strength and McDavid’s relative impact (plus-0.71 xG per 60 vs. MacKinnon’s plus-0.33). The model ranks their xG impacts equally, but the rest points to MacKinnon’s favor.

That duo feels like a slam-dunk top two whereas the race of the rest of the ballot feels a lot tighter. Cale Makar also deserves some recognition for Colorado’s success, but there may be better MVP blue line candidates in Moritz Seider or Zach Werenski. Nikita Kucherov and Leon Draisaitl are around as usual while Matt Boldy narrowly edges out teammate Kirill Kaprizov (plus-10 Net Rating) as the Wild’s current front-runner.

The most intriguing name on the list, though, has to be Macklin Celebrini. The fresh-faced Olympian trails only MacKinnon and McDavid in points, an absurd feat given the quality of the Sharks. Celebrini’s underlying numbers have greatly improved since the last Awards Watch (57 percent xG) as he’s cemented his place among the game’s very best. For the “most valuable to their team” wonks, the gap in Net Rating between Celebrini and the next closest Shark is nine goals, the largest amount in the league by a considerable margin. MacKinnon being the next closest at plus-5.6 when that very teammate is third probably makes that point moot, though.

Norris Trophy

Given to the defenseman who demonstrates throughout the season the greatest all-round ability in the position.
Criteria: Defensemen ranked by Net Rating.

Cale Makar remains the best defenseman in the world and is one of the premier catalysts for the league’s best team. He has been a machine for the Avalanche, dominating tough minutes as usual while pacing for his third straight 90-point season. Makar leads all defensemen in Net Rating and would be an extremely popular and inoffensive choice to win his third Norris trophy.

But while many probably believe this race is already over, I think it’s a lot closer than meets the eye. For all the folks who have ever bemoaned that the Norris trophy is often just the “Art Ross for defensemen,” Moritz Seider has made this year’s Norris race genuinely interesting.

Seider is 16 points behind Makar while playing two fewer games and the same amount of minutes every night. In that realm, it’s not close. But the degree of difficulty Seider faces, combined with his enormous defensive presenc,e turns that gap into a conversation. Seider, despite playing on a significantly worse team, currently has a 57.8 percent xG rate that’s 1.5 percentage points higher than Makar’s. The main thing driving that is Seider allowing 0.4 fewer xGA/60 than Makar. Defensively, he’s been an absolute force, enough to make up ground on Makar’s talents elsewhere.

Seider’s impact is best exemplified by how the Red Wings look without him. The team’s goal differential per 60 increases by 1.27 with Seider on the ice, good for sixth in the league among defensemen. Their xG differential increases by 0.76 per 60, good for third.

It’s not exactly fair to compare Seider to the rest of the Red Wings defensemen vs. Makar compared to the rest of the Avalanche defensemen. It’s like comparing a Big Mac to a steak, and it’s why I’m not big on relTM metrics in isolation. But as a piece of the overall puzzle, it points to Seider’s outsized impact on a Detroit team that’s an utter disaster without him. The fact Seider has a better xG rate than Makar despite the massive supporting cast discrepancy is obviously notable.

The gap between Makar and Seider offensively is probably bigger than the gap between them defensively in Makar’s favor. But it’s close enough to make this an extremely interesting race, especially depending on what a voter values. In terms of how one-of-a-kind Seider’s season has been so far, though, it’s worth noting he’s on pace for a plus-13 Offensive Rating while also earning a plus-12 Defensive Rating. Since 2007-08 there have only been 11 seasons where a defenseman posted a Defensive Rating north of plus-10; none of them had an Offensive Rating higher than plus-10. Seider is having a special, all-around season and if voters want the complete package, he might be the best choice. No one is doing it all like him.

Down the list, Zach Werenski has been awesome again and his 44 points are arguably more impressive than Makar’s 47, considering it’s in four fewer games, features three fewer goals and happened in Columbus. Jakob Chychrun has been a goal-scoring machine, J.J. Moser has been a defensive rock for Tampa Bay, Jake Sanderson is Seider-lite and Lane Hutson has been putting up numbers of late. It’s a great crop that also includes usual stalwarts like Adam Fox, Miro Heiskanen and Josh Morrissey.

Notably absent again is Quinn Hughes, which is entirely a product of his defensive game while with the Canucks. Considering his play with the Wild, where he’s dominating tough minutes, I’d imagine he makes some serious noise on this list for the next edition. Hughes currently ranks third in Offensive Rating among defensemen and in 12 games with the Wild has a plus-4.7 Net Rating. That’s a plus-32 pace that well surpasses Makar’s current level. If he can keep that up, this race will get really spicy.

Selke Trophy

Given to the forward who best excels in the defensive aspects of the game.
Criteria: Forwards who play over 16 minutes per game, receive 15 percent of their team’s short-handed minutes and face top-line forward competition, ranked by their Defensive Rating.

If you’re surprised by Charlie Coyle at the top of this list, that makes two of us. And in my case, I’ve got some serious crow to eat after completely panning the high price Columbus paid to acquire him. Boy, was I wrong: He’s easily been worth it.

“Worth it” and “Selke front-runner” are two different conversations, though, and it’s a serious shock that Coyle is pushing towards the latter — at least according to Defensive Rating. While I would still lean towards Nick Suzuki or Sam Reinhart as the Selke leaders, Coyle is currently checking every box necessary to warrant genuine consideration. He plays extremely tough minutes in line with Suzuki, he soaks up more defensive-zone starts than any other candidate, he kills a lot of penalties, and he makes a major impact at five-on-five.

In terms of usage, no one on this list has it tougher than Coyle. And yet the Blue Jackets allow just 2.36 xGA/60 with Coyle on the ice, 0.42 less than when he’s off. The latter is a top-10 mark among forwards and the best among players taking on matchup minutes. With Columbus also allowing 0.67 fewer goals against per 60, Coyle has the results on the scoresheet to match. We’ll see if this lasts — Coyle’s previous career high for Defensive Rating is plus-3.5 in 2022-23 — but for now it’s a great story.

At the halfway point, the Selke race is remarkably tight — enough that there’s a case to be made for a long list of guys. When it comes to defensive impact, a one-goal difference is enough to pick and choose who the actual best is; it’s not cut-and-dry. And there are nine guys within that range at the moment.

Reinhart is the best incumbent after finishing second to linemate Aleksander Barkov last season. That he’s here again without his more famous linemate might be enough to give him the edge. Over the previous three years, Reinhart’s average Defensive Rating has been plus-7.2. For anyone who thought he was just a product of Barkov, a plus-6.4 pace this year without him is telling.

Suzuki has been the anointed one this season, but his edge since the last Awards Watch has slipped a bit. His xGA/60 has climbed from 2.27 to 2.85. Suzuki is still controlling play while taking on tough minutes, but it’s been with a more offensive slant.

Down the list, Brock Nelson — or anyone else from the best team’s shutdown line — has a strong case as he’s been a major catalyst towards letting Colorado’s top players fly. Mitch Marner is once again in the Selke conversation, though notably faces secondary matchups, something that should be considered against the field. And Mika Zibanejad, despite his team’s poor efforts, has been a lot better than given credit for.

Calder Trophy

Given to the player selected as the most proficient in his first year of competition in the NHL.
Criteria: Rookie skaters ranked by Net Rating percentile relative to position.

There’s no question Matthew Schaefer is still the odds-on favorite to win rookie of the year. For the season, he’s proven he’s already an elite defenseman, an incredible feat given his age. He’s a game-changer all over the ice and has been a noticeable force that’s pushed the New York Islanders into the thick of the playoff hunt.

With that being said, it is fair to say that he’s hit a bit of a wall over the last month. He’s been crushed under the weight of some of the league’s hardest minutes, earning a 42 percent xG rate since December 1. To his immense credit, the Islanders are still outscoring opponents heavily when he’s on the ice and he’s continued his strong production with nine points in 16 games. But the team has been leakier lately with Schaefer on the ice. For the season, he has still been undeniably strong, but if you’re wondering why his Net Rating hasn’t budged over the last month, that’s the reason.

Even with that in mind, the gap between Schaefer and the field remains wide.

Ivan Demidov has been an electric scorer for the Canadiens, producing at a 70-point pace while only playing 15 minutes per night. His impact on the top power play has been especially notable where the top unit scores 12.0 goals per 60 with Demidov and 10.5 without. While his scoring has been excellent for a rookie, it’s not a large enough gap over Schaefer given the positional difference and the defensive role Schaefer plays.

It’s a similar story for Jesper Wallstedt and Alexander Nikishin. Both have been strong enough to warrant a spot on ballots, but neither player has done enough in a smaller role to lead the pack. Wallstedt has played just 17 games and is 19th among goalies in GSAx, a relative difference that matters when comparing skaters and goalies. As for Nikishin, his relative impact is a lot worse than Schaefer’s despite playing mostly sheltered minutes for the Hurricanes.

Down the list, Beckett Sennecke makes the cut this time after being snubbed last time and while he’s third in Offensive Rating behind Demidov, his defensive game remains an issue. Ryan Leonard looks a bit stronger in that regard which gives him the edge, while Noah Ostlund has been a revelation defensively, albeit in a limited role.

Vezina Trophy

Given to the goalkeeper adjudged to be the best at this position.
Criteria: Goaltenders who have played half of their team’s games or more, ranked by goals saved above expected courtesy of Evolving Hockey and MoneyPuck.

With Connor Hellebuyck sidelined for a month and not playing up to his usual standard, the Vezina race looks wide open. It’s a battle between the other five best goalies in the world.

Logan Thompson is the current front-runner of that race and has picked up where he left off from last season. His .914 save percentage is the league’s second-highest mark among starters and made even more impressive by a Washington defense that’s allowing a bit more shot danger than league average.

Thompson’s biggest threat right now is Ilya Sorokin, who had a sensational December posting a .928 save percentage over seven games. Sorokin was second in GSAx among starters since the last Awards Watch, putting him right in the thick of the Vezina hunt. If he’s the efficiency choice (0.65 goals saved per game), Igor Shesterkin is the workhorse choice. He lands in third spot by pure volume, an underrated aspect of goalie value.

Rounding out the top five are Jeremy Swayman and Andrei Vasilevskiy. Swayman has slowed down considerably after leading the Vezina race in December with an .885 save percentage over the last month, while Vasilevskiy has been just average. Spencer Knight also falls in this category after a hot start.

Art Ross Trophy

Given to the player who leads the National Hockey League in scoring points at the end of the regular season.
Criteria: Skaters ranked by their projected end-of-season point total.

Since the last Awards Watch, Nathan MacKinnon has 30 points in 17 games — and still lost ground to Connor McDavid, who put up a mind-boggling 36 points in 16 games. That heat check from McDavid has turned this into a race that should go down to the wire where both MacKinnon and McDavid are projected to finish around 140 points. McDavid is currently expected to finish with a two-point lead. May the best player win.

Rocket Richard Trophy

Given to the NHL’s top goal scorer.
Criteria: Skaters ranked by their projected end-of-season goal total.

Auston Matthews, Connor McDavid and David Pastrnak all have 60-goal seasons to their name. It’s looking promising that Nathan MacKinnon could be the latest to join the club. He’s on pace for 70 through the first half and only needs 25 in the second half to get there — almost exactly what he’s projected to accomplish. With a nine-goal lead over the next closest player, MacKinnon looks like a safe bet to win his first Rocket.

Data via Evolving Hockey, Hockey Stat Cards, Natural Stat Trick and NHL.