Holiday moviegoing is still happening, especially with 76% colleges on break through Friday. With that, the majors are programming toward an older-dude demographic with two new releases: the Lionsgate-STX-Anton co-production Greenland 2: Migration and Paramount/18Hz’s monkey horror movie Primate.
20th Century Studios’ Avatar: Fire and Ash will prevail in its fourth frame with $20M+, with Greenland 2 and Primate both looking at $8M-$10M. Avatar: Fire and Ash, already past $1 billion around the world, currently counts a running cume of $311.8M in North America. The James Cameron-directed threequel holds onto its Imax, full 3D suite and 4D/Screen-X/D-box premium auditoriums.
Don’t discount the overindexing of Greenland 2 at 2,700 theaters: It’s Gerard Butler. He has a solid older-male fan base. A year ago at this time, his Lionsgate sequel Den of Thieves: Pantera opened to a solid $15M, just $200K shy of its pre-Covid first installment in 2018. Also, the first Greenland movie is currently in the top ranks of the HBO Max streaming menu. Greenland 2 cost $12M and has a reported $20M stateside P&A. Lionsgate just has domestic rights on the Ric Roman Waugh-directed sequel.
Morena Baccarin and Gerard Butler in ‘Greenland 2: Migration’
Lionsgate/Everett Collection
In Greenland 2, the surviving Garrity family must leave the safety of the Greenland bunker and embark on a perilous journey across the decimated frozen wasteland of Europe to find a new home. The PG-13 sci-fi title’s previews start at 2 p.m. Thursday. First choice is best with guys over 25 but is pacing behind Den of Thieves 2. The original movie was released in late-summer 2020, when theaters stateside were still locked down because of the pandemic. The movie did a great $53.2M abroad and sold pay TV and streaming to HBO Max for around $25M — a price that any indie film looking for acquisition would crave in this day and age where it’s hard for indies to get a pay-one deal. No Rotten Tomatoes critic or audience scores yet.
Johnny Sequoyah in ‘Primate’
Paramount Pictures
Primate, which is the first theatrical release from Walter Hamada’s genre label 18Hz at Paramount, is directed and co-written by Johannes Roberts and follows a group of friends’ tropical vacation that goes sideways when their chimp loses it. The pic’s buzz lit the wick at Fantastic Fest back in September, and currently carries a 90% fresh critics score on Rotten Tomatoes. It’s playing at 2,900 sites. Previews start at 7 p.m. Thursday. Men over 25 are the best demo in first choice, though behind Neon’s The Monkey ($14M opening), another horror film from last year involving banana-eating animals. Internationally, Primate will open this week in 26 markets including Mexico. Thirty-four markets will bow later, including France on Jan. 21, Australia on Jan. 22, Germany, Italy and Brazil on Jan. 29, the United Kingdom on Jan. 30 and Spain on February 6.
Going wide this weekend at 1,200 is the Bradley Cooper-directed dramedy Is This Thing On? Will Arnett stars as a guy going through a divorce who finds solace in stand-up comedy. Also starring Laura Dern and Cooper, the pic is 86% with critics and 88% fresh with audience on Rotten Tomatoes. Is This Thing On? has made $1M in 18 days at the box office in 33 theaters. Single digits expected this weekend.
In 1,400 sites is Angel Studios’ Omar Sy-Jay Abdo Arabic drama I Was a Stranger.
‘Dead Man’s Wire’
Venice Film Festival
In limited release is the Row K debut thriller Dead Man’s Wire from Gus Van Sant at 14 theaters in New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Boston, Dallas, Washington D.C., Seattle and Austin. At 97% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, the pic stars Bill Skarsgård, Dacre Montgomery, Cary Elwes, Myha’la, Coleman Domingo and Al Pacino in a story inspired by the 1977 hostage standoff that turned aspiring entrepreneur Tony Kiritsis into an eccentric outlaw folk hero. Row K picked up the movie in the mid-seven-figure range.