Call it a river cities rivalry.
Fort Worth and Austin appear locked in a constant, flowing battle over which city has more residents. Cowtown roped in the title of Texas’ fourth largest city — and the nation’s 11th largest — in May when its population surpassed the 1 million mark, dethroning the state’s capital.
But new 2026 state population estimates show Austin reclaimed its No. 4 ranking with a population that now exceeds Fort Worth by about 34,000 residents.
Data from the Texas Demographic Center shows that Fort Worth’s population reached 1,020,987 in 2025 while Austin pulled ahead slightly with 1,054,007 residents, according to estimates from the center released in January. The state office revised Austin’s 2025 population from the official U.S. census estimate of 993,588 to 1,033,097.
Xiuhong “Helen” You, interim director of the Texas Demographic Center, said Austin officials complained that the city was undercounted in the 2025 census data.
“We’re still showing higher growth for Austin,” she told the Fort Worth Report.
You said the center is examining the discrepancy between the census and state demographic data. Revisions could be made in the center’s next population estimate if that data shows errors.
“We’ll look at the data and determine if we missed something,” she said.
Fort Worth’s milestone last year made it the nation’s 11th largest city — a designation that city leaders capitalized on to attract business growth to North Texas. Some business and government leaders have even referred to Fort Worth as the nation’s 10th largest city since there was a scant 2,000-resident gap between Cowtown and Jacksonville, Florida, the official No. 10 city based on U.S. census data.
Fort Worth keeps attracting millions of visitors to the city, regardless of its official population, said Alex Catterton, director of content and public relations at Visit Fort Worth, the city’s tourism organization.
“Fort Worth’s visitor economy has doubled over the past decade to nearly 12 million visitors a year and more than 30,000 hospitality jobs,” Catterton said in a statement. “The incredible investments in the Stockyards, Fort Worth Zoo, Dickies Arena and hotels means a bright future ahead.”
When it comes to acreage, Fort Worth encompasses more space than its Central Texas rival on the Colorado River.
Fort Worth, linked to Dallas via the winding Trinity River, has about 359 square miles compared to Austin’s 320 square miles, census data shows.
Texas’ demographic data shows that Fort Worth grew faster than Austin — 11.1% compared to 9.6% — from 2020 to 2025.
However, a population forecast for the next 10 years indicates that both cities will grow at about the same pace with Austin in the lead, according to Aterio.io, a predictive data analytics firm that uses AI.
In 2030, Austin is expected to reach 1,089,146 residents while Fort Worth’s population could grow to 1,079,737 residents, Aterio data shows.
By 2035, Austin could have 1,153,296 residents while Fort Worth could reach 1,136,768 people, the forecast shows.
The state’s top three cities — Houston, San Antonio and Dallas — are expected to keep growing but to maintain their respective rankings. Houston could reach 2.6 million residents by 2035, followed by San Antonio with 1.7 million people and Dallas with a population of 1.4 million, Aterio’s forecast shows.
Eric E. Garcia is senior business reporter at the Fort Worth Report. Contact him at eric.garcia@fortworthreport.org.
Disclosure: Mitch Whitten of Visit Fort Worth is on the Fort Worth Report’s board of directors. The Report’s news decisions are made independently of our board members and financial supporters. Read more about our editorial independence policy here.
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