My straight-up picks went 11-5 in Week 18, improving my regular season record to 184-87-1. That win total is the fourth-highest this season among the 185 experts tracked by NFL Pickwatch. I’m aiming to carry that momentum over into the postseason!

I’m giving two picks for each game: One is which team I predict to win outright, the other is which team I predict will cover the point spread. Each pick has a confidence level of 1-10, with 10 being the most confident. For more information on the pick methodology, check out the Week 1 edition of this series.

Keep in mind that since the idea here is to make high-percentage plays, my picks tend to lean chalk-heavy. I am also very judicious in giving out higher confidence level scores.

If you want to see my confidence picks ranked 1-6 (pick to win), scroll to the table at the bottom.

Here is how my Week 18 picks fared, along with my current season record.

  • Overall picks to win: 11-5 in Week 18 (184-87-1 for the season)
    Picks to win with 1-5 confidence: 6-4 (109-68-1)
    Picks to win with 6-10 confidence: 5-1 (75-19)
  • Overall to cover the spread: 7-9 (137-126-9)
    Cover-the-spread picks with 1-5 confidence: 4-7 (111-100-8)
    Cover-the-spread picks with 6-10 confidence: 3-2 (26-25-1)

Now let’s get into the wild-card selections.

All odds referenced are courtesy of BetMGM as of publish time.

Los Angeles Rams (-10.5) at Carolina Panthers

The 10.5-point spread suggests the sports-betting public is forgetting that Carolina defeated the Rams in Charlotte in Week 13. The Panthers go toe-to-toe with Los Angeles in many metric areas and have an edge in special teams. The Rams’ offensive firepower is enough for me to select Los Angeles to win, but Carolina gets the spread pick.

  • Pick to win: Los Angeles (Confidence level: 4)
  • Pick to cover the spread: Carolina (Confidence level: 2)

Green Bay Packers (-1) at Chicago Bears

My metric analysis in this game yielded some surprising results. Chicago rates ahead of Green Bay in multiple areas. The Packers did not show a notable advantage in any of the areas I track. Green Bay used to dominate this series, but the Bears have won two of the last three. That statistical edge, combined with being at home, should lead to Chicago winning and covering this week.

  • Pick to win: Chicago (CL: 6)
  • Pick to cover the spread: Chicago (CL: 6)

Buffalo Bills (-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars

It’s somewhat surprising that Buffalo is a slight road favorite in this one. My stat review showed that the Jaguars have much better passing offense numbers. Jacksonville also rates better on special teams and is the healthier squad. The Jaguars also have momentum with an eight-game winning streak and may have played their best game of the season in Week 18. It’s a recipe for a home win for Jacksonville.

  • Pick to win: Jacksonville (CL: 5)
  • Pick to cover the spread: Jacksonville (CL: 5)

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5)

These teams rate even in many areas. Where one team rates better in my stat review, that rating is much better rather than a marginal advantage. San Francisco has a big edge in passing offense, special teams and injuries. Philadelphia rates better in pass coverage and pass rush. This is close enough to use the home-field tiebreaker to give the Eagles the pick to win, but San Francisco gets the spread selection.

  • Pick to win: Philadelphia (CL: 2)
  • Pick to cover the spread: San Francisco (CL: 2)

Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots (-3.5)

The Chargers’ path to victory here goes through their ability to stop the run and win on special teams. The Patriots’ avenue to win is their offensive advantage. Those metrics nullify each other on my review chart. That leaves home-field advantage as the tiebreaker. With a 3.5-point spread, it means I’ll pick New England for the win and Los Angeles for the cover.

  • Pick to win: New England (CL: 2)
  • Pick to cover the spread: Los Angeles (CL: 2)

Houston Texans (-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers

This may be the most evenly matched game on the board by my metrics. Pittsburgh has an edge in rushing offense and is the healthier team. Houston has a gargantuan advantage on special teams. Those metrics cancel each other out, so once again, home field leads me to this split: Houston gets the pick to win, but Pittsburgh gets the cover.

  • Pick to win: Houston (CL: 2)
  • Pick to cover the spread: Pittsburgh (CL: 2)