The Penguins have reached the halfway point of the season, the top part of their leading scorers looks like this via hockeydb.
Let’s look at which players can pick it up, and who will might taper off in the second half. For these purposes, we’re simply looking at the player had in the first half of the season and whether he will provide more or less than that over the second half.
Rickard Rakell – this is borderline cheating, courtesy of the long injury absence in the first half. He easily could and should be scoring more than six goals and 15 points in the team’s next 41 games. Nice little warmup to take the slam dunk when it’s right there.
Ben Kindel – can Kindel keep going or will he hit a rookie wall? With the way he’s played lately (three points in the last two games, four in the last five, eight in the last 12), I think Kindel has the staying power to score 19+ points in the second half of the season. He has been piling up more points as the year has gone on, the Olympic break should help as a natural reset for a young player to get a breather.
Erik Karlsson goals — It’s a wonder Karlsson has only found the back of the net three times, striking the iron from a post or crossbar and staying out just as many times as good goals. Karlsson should end up with at least seven goals this season and end up scoring more in the second half than he did in the first.
Justin Brazeau goals — What would you take on Brazeau scoring 13 goals over the team’s next 41 games? Considering he’s got 12 in 27, it doesn’t sound unreasonable. I’m not so sure the magic of shooting 25.0% keeps going that long, but why not? Whether he remains healthy or not could make or break the outcome for doubling his goals.
Tommy Novak — Novak has two career 40+ point seasons under his belt, he’s certainly not incapable of the 42 points that he’s on pace for with a good second half, he makes this portion because he’s tough to project. Is Novak a center or wing? He’s played with Crosby on the first line, played on the second line and at times been a bit out of the spotlight on a lower line, what’s the role moving forward? I wouldn’t be surprised if Novak keeps having a quiet but good season, but then again he had a slow start and was barely a focal point of the team early. Does he slip back to that now that a new piece like Chinakhov is around?
Ville Koivunen and Rutger McGroarty – One on hand, the output required is so low to hit in this exercise, Koivunen would only need six points over the rest of the season, four for McGroarty to pitch in more. On the other hand, both young players might not get the games and opportunities in the second half with Chinakhov on a forward group that is approaching health. Leaning to the unders for both, but those bars are so low to clear that it gives some pause since that’s basically only a couple of really good games for either to chip in more.
Evgeni Malkin – Malkin was the Pens best player in the first 10 or 20 games this season. Then he hurt his shoulder and missed a while. He put up 29 points before he got hurt, does he have another 29+ in him for the second half of the season? Missing a chunk of games is always a strong possibility for him too, so I’m torn on this one, it’s not difficult to imagine scenarios where he ends up on either side of second half performances.
I don’t want to say lower but probably lower
Sidney Crosby goals – I mean a 38-year old just can’t score 48+ goals in a season, right? That’s not humanly possible (first place all-time for a 38-year old is Brett Hull’s 37. Johnny Bucyk and Alex Ovechkin are tied for second with 31. As a 39-year old buoyed by the record chase, Ovechkin scored 44 goals last season). The head says to bet Crosby doesn’t have 24 more goals in him for the second half of the season, the head also knows by now not to actually believe in limiting what Crosby could be capable of, which could be having the best ‘old guy goal scoring season’ in NHL history if he keeps it up.
Ryan Shea – now that Shea’s down to the third pair he’s not going to get the chance to play as many minutes with top-end forwards. He’ll still be good at stretch passes and in the offensive zone but probably not record 14+ assists in the second half of the season good.
Anthony Mantha – Mantha would need to demolish a career-high of 48 points to have as good of a second half of the season as he did in the first (on pace for 58 points). He’s also a guy that tends to miss some time with injuries over the course of a year and has perfect attendance so far. That spot on the top power play that he’s had for most of Malkin’s injury is going away too. He still is tracking to have a very good season even if it does tail off in the second half.
Kris Letang – maybe having Brett Kulak as a steady and defensively quality partner will help unlock Letang, and his game has been a lot better lately. But do we really think 38-year old Kris Letang is going to end up with 43+ points (last year he ended up with 30 points in 74 games)? That gives some pause, with the concern of injury also very viable to lower the amount of points he produced in the first half.
Anything else stand out for guys who will pitch in more for the Penguins in the second half of the season than they did in the first? Bonus points for going more challenging than Chinakhov. And who might see their first half contributions dwindle over the rest of the year?