Halfway through the NHL season, it’s time to look at how the playoff race is shaping up — and boy, is it a doozy.

After each night’s slate of games is finished, our playoff projections page is updated, taking into account the results from those games and fresh new data to feed into the model. Every night, everything changes, and those changes can add up — especially if a team goes on a heater (or cooler). Those changes can also be difficult to view at a glance and it’s good practice to take stock regularly of what’s been happening.

This is the Playoff Report, a monthly check-in of each team’s chances of making the playoffs, the trends within the race, and why the biggest movers are on the rise or declining.

Here’s how the race currently shapes up. As you can see, it’s a beautiful mess.

The East

Tampa Bay and Carolina? Extremely safe. Pencil them in. Boston? Probably out, especially without Hampus Lindholm for an extended stretch. Pencil them out. Everyone else? Good luck figuring that out.

At the moment, only one team that made the playoffs last year, Montreal, occupies a playoff spot. The Capitals are close and have the second-best goal differential in the conference, while the Panthers aren’t far off from the top eight with Matthew Tkachuk’s return seemingly imminent. None of the three are locks, but they’re the safest for those reasons; they’re varying levels of actually good with some points banked.

The Capitals and Panthers also have the benefit of a weaker schedule going forward compared to many of their competitors. Schedule strength is a potentially huge factor in such a tight race and it helps explain why Detroit (hardest), Pittsburgh (fourth hardest), Philadelphia (sixth) and Buffalo (seventh) are further down than expected given each team’s current record. It also helps explain why Ottawa (third) and Toronto (fifth) are in tougher spots than their track records might indicate.

There’s also divisional strength at play, where there is a growing chance that the sixth-best team in the Atlantic misses the playoffs with a better record than third in the Metro. On top of upcoming schedule strength, it also stems from some skepticism around the Penguins, Islanders and Flyers — three teams expected to finish last in the East this year. The model probably underrates the Islanders, but it should be noted they rank 27th in xG this season.

Basically, it’s a cluster of chaos that’s difficult to untangle. At the moment, there are 10 teams expected to finish between 89 and 93 points. Against all odds, almost every team still has a chance at the halfway point and it’s why only five teams have chances north of 50 percent: the 16 teams add up to 800 percent, 100 percent for each slot.

Essentially, the answer to “Is my favorite team making the playoffs?” is “Maybe, but …”

The West

There’s a different problem out West: the complete collapse of the wild-card race. Colorado, Dallas and Minnesota are locks — especially when the playoff cutline has drastically shifted down to just 84 points. Ditto for Vegas and Edmonton, two teams with strong track records who are far enough above that line to feel confident. You can probably pencil the Kings in, too, for that reason; they also have the league’s easiest schedule in the second half.

As for the rest, it’s looking like it’s going to be a “who’s the least bad” contest with two likely winners. There are a lot of contenders for the job.

Some might be surprised by Utah’s lofty chances. We’ll get to the Mammoth in a second, but believe it or not, they’re one of four teams in the West with a positive goal differential. They look likely.

For the final spot, the Ducks, Jets, Sharks and Predators all have a claim. The Ducks are buoyed by a strong start, the Jets are greatly underachieving but have the track record, the Sharks are being willed into the mix by Macklin Celebrini’s star power, and the Predators have reinvented their game back to competitiveness. The Sharks currently have the best record of the four and the easiest upcoming schedule, but they’re also the leakiest five-on-five team of the bunch.

That’s one reason the Kraken are noticeably absent from that group despite currently sitting at a 94-point pace. Seattle is, without question, the league’s worst five-on-five team with a 42.7 percent xG rate, two percentage points back of the 31st Blackhawks. That’s the 10th-worst mark in the analytics era and would be the lowest ever for a playoff team. Seattle making it is not impossible, but the Kraken also have the league’s second-hardest schedule coming up, which will add another challenge on top of their weak five-on-five play.

On the riseMinnesota Wild

Did anything interesting happen to the Wild over the last month? Oh yeah, they got the second-best defenseman in the world. Yeah, that’ll help.

While the Wild had to give up some value off their roster to do so (Marco Rossi in particular), the impact of adding Quinn Hughes was still huge, and the team has been rolling ever since with an 8-2-3 record, a plus-16 goal differential, and some elite numbers at five-on-five. Hughes has been sensational, picking up where he left off over the last two years, where he’s challenged Cale Makar for the best in the world crown. Away from the doldrums of the Canucks franchise that limited him through the first two months, Hughes could get there with the Wild.

Hughes’ presence has made the Wild a playoff lock, with their odds jumping from 78 to 99 percent. How far they go when they get there is the question, though, given who they share a division with. The Wild are on the rise, but still have a lot of work to do to prove they can hang with the Avalanche.

Detroit Red Wings

When respect is earned, respect is given, and the Red Wings are finally making meaningful headway by the model. Detroit is now up to a 93-point projection and a 49 percent chance at making the playoffs. It may not be above 50 percent yet, but that’s due to the competition in the East where the Red Wings currently project to finish sixth. Things are looking up.

So what changed? The big thing is that the Red Wings are finally making due on their territorial advantage thanks to a return to form from John Gibson. In each of the first three months, the Red Wings were an average expected goals team; over the last month, they were finally an average actual goals team. Gibson’s .922 save percentage and his sixth-ranked GSAx were a big part of that, leading to a 12-4-2 record. I’m not completely sure he can sustain that, given his recent resume, but it’s a great start toward improving Detroit’s expected standing between the pipes. The Red Wings entered the season with low expectations on that front, but have climbed over the last month.

An average five-on-five team with elite special teams can be a real recipe for success for Detroit, but the true test starts in the second half when the schedule ramps up. If the Red Wings can keep up this current level against the league’s best, they’ll keep earning respect and should have no trouble earning a playoff berth.

Until they prove it, though, some caution is warranted.

Edmonton Oilers

The Oilers are back, baby! Zach Hyman has returned, Connor McDavid is on fire, the power play is unstoppable and the team is controlling play again at five-on-five. All of that led to a 10-6-1 record where the Oilers improved their playoff odds by 19.6 percentage points. After seeing their Net Rating free-fall in November, the Oilers jumped right back up by 19 goals over the last month, the highest mark in the league.

Almost all of that is on offense, where McDavid got his groove back, scoring 17 goals and 39 points over the last 17 games while dominating at five-on-five. He’s been a monster during this stretch, but it also helps that Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins look closer to their 2023-24 selves rather than last year’s lackluster versions.

There’s still a lot of room to grow to get back to last year’s strength, and after yet another slow start, the Oilers look like they’re right on track to get there.

San Jose Sharks

Are the San Jose Sharks actually good? Probably not, but they’re getting better. Can the San Jose Sharks actually make the playoffs? Maybe, and their chances continue to grow with each improbable win.

Since Dec. 2, the Sharks’ point projection has jumped from 75 to 82, giving them a very real playoff shot at 26 percent. And that’s not just from going 8-7-0 while the wild-card race collapsed either — the team’s Net Rating has jumped 18.7 goals, second to only the Oilers. That’s the result of across-the-board improvement in terms of scoring chances from the first two months.

October/November
xGF%: 43.2%
PP xGF/60: 8.3
PK xGA/60: 10.2

December
xGF%: 47.8%
PP xGF/60: 11.1
PK xGA/60: 9.2

The headline for the Sharks over the last month might be that Celebrini is keeping up his torrid pace with 24 points in 15 games and willing this team to relevance, but it goes beyond his scoring. Celebrini’s own xG rate is up to 56.3 percent and there are a slew of others on the right side of the puck. Dmitry Orlov and John Klingberg have controlled the game well on the back end, Alexander Wennberg is playing great in tough minutes, and the emergence of Collin Graf has been notable.

The biggest change, though, might be the promotion of Igor Chernyshov to the big leagues. Chernyshov has eight points in his first nine games and an outstanding enough xG rate to believe he’s arrived as a genuine top-six forward right out of the gate. Add that to the mix, and San Jose’s top six does look legitimately dangerous.

It may not ultimately be enough for a playoff berth, but the Sharks sure are making it interesting.

Honorable mentions

Colorado Avalanche

The certainty that the Avalanche are miles better than basically every other team continues to climb as their Stanley Cup chances shot up from 20 percent to over 30. Colorado has not taken its foot off the gas for a second and was once again the league’s best team over the last month, going 13-3-1 with the best five-on-five numbers in the league. Is anybody going to stop these guys?

Utah Mammoth

The Mammoth went 8-8-0, yet somehow improved their playoff chances 20.6 percentage points, third-most in the league. Huh? Well, in the West, it helps that the biggest threats from a month ago went 2-9-5 (Winnipeg), 5-10-2 (Anaheim) and 6-8-2 (Los Angeles). That opened the door greatly in the West, as did the Hughes trade that pushed the Canucks out of the picture. On top of that, Utah also managed a 57.1 percent xG during that time frame, the second-best mark in the league.

Falling offNew Jersey Devils

The Devils were already at the top of this list after a dismal month. A 9-0 loss to the Islanders cemented it. No team’s playoff stock has fallen further than the Devils, who have dropped from 77 percent to 35 percent. After starting 13-4-1, the Devils are now 9-15-1 in their last 25 games.

Some of that is the absence of Jack Hughes (and his poor play since returning). Some of it is poor roster construction coming to light in his absence. Some of it is goaltending. All of it is a problem that’s pushed the Devils’ projected rating to a shade below average at minus-0.8. A team that many viewed as a potential contender going into the season suddenly just doesn’t look that good at all.

Since Dec. 2, the numbers for New Jersey are appalling. The Devils have a 46.7 percent xG rate (26th) and 35.6 percent goal rate (32nd). They also have the league’s worst power play and worst penalty kill on top of that. In 17 games, they’ve been outscored 54-30, meaning they’ve averaged less than two goals per game.

If there’s any solace for the Devils, it’s that the worst part of the season is probably over. Hughes should get healthier with each passing game, the return of Johnathan Kovacevic is on the horizon and most importantly, the schedule is about to turn. No team has had a more difficult schedule to date than the Devils; they have the third-easiest schedule going forward.

Whether that’s enough to turn things around after the gigantic hole the team built over the last month remains to be seen. The Devils simply might not be good enough.

Winnipeg Jets

Connor Hellebuyck came back to the lineup on Dec. 13, pushing Winnipeg’s playoff odds back up to 62 percent thanks to his return and a win over the Capitals. That’s Hellebuyck’s only win since, and the Jets’ chances have sunk like a stone as a result, dropping all the way to 30 percent. The 15-21-5 Jets currently sit last in the West and are projected to finish with 82.6 points. They started the year with an expectation of 99.7 points.

While the Western playoff race doesn’t look all that competitive with a projected cutoff of 84 points, the Jets have put themselves in a massive hole over the last month with a league-worst 2-9-5 record.

The question now is whether it’s over for last year’s Presidents’ Trophy winners. I’m not there yet, but it really does all depend on Hellebuyck. The Jets were never much of a puck possession team and would only go as far as their star goalie could take them. Since his return, Hellebuyck has an .886 save percentage and the Jets are living within the consequences of that.

Time is ticking for Hellebuyck to carry them, and the team’s drop in projected Offensive Rating over the last month is telling towards the ever-growing importance of Hellebuyck’s excellence. Winnipeg’s drop to an Offensive Rating of minus-12.0 pushes the Jets to 22nd in that regard. That’s less than ideal for a team with Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor and Josh Morrissey on it that finished third in goals for last season.

Anaheim Ducks

I really wanted to believe this time was different for the Anaheim Ducks. A new coach plus an emerging young core backed by a budding elite goalie felt like a recipe for success, one we saw cooked to perfection over the first month. There were some red flags, sure, but this didn’t feel like past Ducks hot streaks that went nowhere — this one felt like the one that would get Anaheim back to the playoffs.

The Ducks are still in the driver’s seat, ranking eighth in the West in projected points, but they’ve fallen considerably from their once-comfortable heights. Since peaking at 81 percent on Dec. 10, the Ducks have gone 2-9-2 and have seen their playoff odds drop to 34 percent during that stretch.

During that time, the team’s core has really let them down. Leo Carlsson has just one goal and four points in 12 games, while Cutter Gauthier, Mason McTavish and Beckett Sennecke are all scoring less than 0.5 points per game. Most egregious, though, is Lukáš Dostál, who has a grisly .853 save percentage during that time, the worst mark of any starter.

If there’s any positive to be taken from this dry spell, though, it’s that the Ducks are finally controlling play with 54.7 percent of the expected goals — the third-best mark in the league. Once the team’s players start executing like many expect them to, Anaheim should get back on track. For now, they need to find a way out of this tailspin.

Dallas Stars

Heading into the holiday break, the Stars were 25-7-6 and seemingly one of the league’s top contenders. But there were some cracks under the surface, including a below-average scoring chance rate, that were exacerbated with a season-ending injury to Tyler Seguin. On Dec. 2, Seguin’s last game, Dallas’ projected Net Rating was plus-50. One month later, it’s dropped all the way to plus-21, the largest drop of any team, which suggests some caution to Dallas’ contender status. The team’s current six-game losing streak adds a stamp to that point.

A lot of that drop is related to Seguin’s absence, where the difference between a top-six forward and a replacement-level one is vast. But it goes further than that, with declines from Jamie Benn and Matt Duchene adding to the problem. Depth up front is becoming an issue for the Stars with one of the league’s weakest bottom-six groups. It’s the big four, and then the rest — and the rest are far from good enough. Add the usual issues on the back end, made worse by a sudden and strange decline from Thomas Harley and the Stars suddenly have a lot of holes to fill.

The Stars get by with star power and strong goaltending, but the team’s weak depth is starting to catch up with them. Dallas has a lot of holes to fill, and doing so could push the Stars back up the contender ladder. As they currently stand, though, they’re moving away from that tier.

Honorable mentions

Vancouver Canucks

Even before trading Quinn Hughes, things were already heading in the wrong direction for the Canucks, who had lost six of seven. A four-game win streak immediately after did nothing to dispel that, as the Canucks then went on to again lose six of seven. Few teams saw their playoff chances and projected rating drop more than the Canucks over the last month and while much of that is Hughes-related, the writing was already on the wall.

Columbus Blue Jackets

The model is disturbingly high on the Blue Jackets, even after a 6-8-2 stretch that’s pushed the team to last in the East. The Blue Jackets’ playoff odds dropped 21.7 percentage points, but somehow their Net Rating stayed steady despite middling xG marks in all strength states. The main reason: a whole lot of faith in Jet Greaves, who currently ranks eighth in GSAx. Thanks in part to his strong work last year, Greaves currently grades out as a top-10 goaltender.

We’ll see if that faith pays off in the second half, but it’s worth noting that a similar thing happened to the Sabres in the last Playoff Report: a steady rating despite a hefty drop in playoff odds. They roared back with an 11-4-0 stretch right after. For what it’s worth, this also applies to the Ottawa Senators.

Here’s how the league’s landscape has changed over the last month.