With the Miami Dolphins’ firing of head coach Mike McDaniel, the John Harbaugh sweepstakes just got more interesting, as Ed discussed Thursday. The New York Giants and the Dolphins are only two of eight teams searching for a head coach this coming off-season, but as Ed reported, Dolphins owner Stephen Ross has long ties to the Harbaugh family and apparently had been in touch with Harbaugh even before firing McDaniel. That makes Miami probably the most serious competitor for Harbaugh’s services.
Let’s put aside those things and imagine that we’re John Harbaugh, and ask a simple question that Harbaugh may have to ask himself: Personal relationships aside, which is the better job if you’re interested in success? Let’s go through the pros and cons.
Stephen Ross and John Mara chatting before the Giants’ 2021 game in Miami. Getty Images
Ross has some baggage. Most notably, the Dolphins lost their first-round draft pick in 2023 and their third round draft pick in 2024 because the NFL determined that Ross had illegal contact with Tom Brady and Sean Payton while they were employed by other teams, and that he had tried to get former head coach Brian Flores to tank during the 2019 season to improve Miami’s chances of getting the No. 1 pick in the 2020 draft.
Ross is an absentee owner who does not live in the Miami area, which can be a pro or con depending on what you think of the owner. The players seem to like him, having given him an A+ in the 2025 NFLPA Report Card (the Giants’ owners got a C+). Per Nick Korte, the Dolphins were seventh in the league in void year contract spending as of last winter, so Ross is not afraid to spend his money on improving the team.
On the other hand, it’s possible that Miami was the eighth team that was inquiring about Harbaugh the other day when there were only seven teams known to be seeking a new head coach; they then fired Mike McDaniel on Thursday. Would that make an in-demand candidate think twice?
Giants ownership is different in many ways. It’s partly a family-run business, and the only business of one of the two primary owners, who is always around the facility and has numerous family members working in positions of influence in the front office. The Giants players gave ownership a C+ in the 2025 NFLPA voting. The Giants are one of two NFL teams with absolutely no void year costs on the books. GM Joe Schoen made no moves at the trading deadline to shore up any of the Giants’ weaknesses. Would that make Harbaugh suspicious that ownership is willing to do whatever it takes to win?
Bradley Chubb tackles Daniel Jones during the Giants’ 2023 loss in Miami Getty Images
You know how this is going to turn out, right? The Giants have mostly been a disaster since winning their last Super Bowl in the 2011 season. Only two playoff seasons and one playoff win during that time. Six head coaches (plus two interim head coaches) during that time. An overall record of 83-152-1 during that time. If that isn’t evidence of a dysfunctional organization, I don’t know what is. If I’m an in-demand head coach coming from an organization with a tradition of winning almost every season, do I want to risk my reputation by coming into such a situation?
Well, surprise, surprise. The Miami Dolphins haven’t won a Super Bowl since 1973, and they haven’t even been to a Super Bowl since 1984. They haven’t even won a playoff game since the 2000 season, and since Ross bought the team in 2009, the Dolphins have only been to the playoffs three times, losing them all. The Dolphins’ recent futility isn’t as bad as that of the Giants – they’ve been to the playoffs twice in the past four years – but 52 years without a ring can’t be ignored. The Dolphins have only been mediocre the past two seasons, however, not awful like the Giants.
It may be hard to believe, but…
General manager situation
What? I have to report to Harbaugh? Getty Images
The Dolphins’ GM position is currently vacant. They are currently interviewing four candidates, with interim GM Champ Kelly being one of them. The favorite, though, is current Los Angeles Chargers assistant GM Chad Alexander…who not only is working with Harbaugh’s brother Jim but who happened to work in the Ravens organization for 20 years, much of it while John Harbaugh was there. If Alexander is hired, that is a strong incentive for John Harbaugh to sign with Miami.
In contrast, Joe Schoen is something of a lame duck in the Giants organization. He is conducting the interview search, but he will not be choosing the head coach, and it’s not clear how much weight his recommendation will carry. If the Giants want Harbaugh, will they be willing to dismiss Schoen and put someone more acceptable to Harbaugh in place? Will they keep Schoen but make clear to him that his job is to get the players that Harbaugh wants at the positions Harbaugh judges to be in need of strengthening? The Kansas City Chiefs and the Los Angeles Rams are examples of organizations in which the head coach and GM work together well but it is understood that the head coach is really the one in power. That will probably be the case if Harbaugh goes to Miami, but would it work in New York where there is no prior relationship between the new head coach and essentially a figurehead GM?
Tua Tagovailoa, Zach Wilson and Quinn Ewers Getty Images
This is the Giants’ trump card in a competition with the Dolphins. Miami’s quarterback situation is a mess. Tua Tagovailoa is effectively out as Dolphins’ QB, due to a combination of his inability to win big games for them and his unfortunate history of concussions. Tagovailoa is in the middle of a 5-year, $53.1M AAV contract that would create $99.2M of dead money if he were to be released before June 1, 2026, per Over The Cap. The dead money drops to $31.8M in 2027, and the contract does contain 2028 and 2029 void years that may allow the pain to be stretched out over time.
That doesn’t solve the bigger problem, though – who IS going to be Miami’s QB in 2026? The depth chart currently has Quinn Ewers as QB1 and Zach Wilson as QB2. Ewers will only be 24 when the 2026 season begins, and he’s only had three starts to show what he can do. Miami also has eight picks in the coming draft, including the No. 11 pick and three third-round picks, so it’s possible that they could move up to get into position to take, say, Dante Moore if he declares, or they might be able to stick and pick Ty Simpson now that he’s declared for the draft.
The Giants do not offer that type of uncertainty. Jaxson Dart clearly established himself as the Giants’ QB of the future this season. We don’t know yet what his ceiling is, but he appears to have all the high-level mental traits required to become an elite QB plus the leadership skills required for the job. He’s not the runner that Lamar Jackson is, but he’s miles ahead of where Lamar was as a passer as a rookie. The Giants also have Jameis Winston, who impressed in two starts when Dart was hurt. Winston showed Harbaugh what he can do when he hit Cedric Tillman for a 39-yard TD in the final minute to lead the Browns over the Ravens last season.
Jaylen Waddle scoring at MetLife against the Jets Getty Images
Miami was 25th in the NFL in scoring and 26th in offensive yards in 2025 (vs. 17th and 13th, respectively, for the Giants). The Giants finished higher than the Dolphins in both passing and rushing yards, despite the fact that Miami has skill players the level of which the Giants cannot at the moment match (Tyreek Hill, Jayden Waddle, De’Von Achane).
On defense, the Dolphins finished 24th in points allowed and 22nd in yards allowed (vs. 26th and 28th for the Giants). Both teams had 39 sacks, although the Dolphins had 112 missed tackles to the Giants’ 79. The Dolphins have some elite or at least very good players on defense, including Minkah Fitzpatrick, Jordyn Brooks, Jean Phillips, and Rasul Douglas, yet overall they were poor in pass coverage.
Edge: Dolphins (slightly)
We don’t know what John Harbaugh will be looking for in new head coaching position. From the story that came out in The Athletic, it seemed that his fate after a disappointing non-playoff season was sealed by his unwillingness to move on from several of his staff, most notably offensive coordinator Todd Monken, who seemed not to mesh with Lamar Jackson. Jackson has been something of an enigma – clearly one of the most gifted players in the NFL, someone who made himself a great passer as well as a great runner at the NFL level after being one-dimensional as a rookie. Yet Jackson has never come up big in the big game, and has yet to even get to the Super Bowl. Harbaugh’s one ring came with Joe Flacco, a conventional passer, at QB. Is it Harbaugh’s, Jackson’s, or someone else’s fault that the Ravens haven’t been back to the Super Bowl?
Clearly Harbaugh’s resume makes him the most desirable head coaching candidate the Giants will interview. Will the Giants be the most desirable team on Harbaugh’s list? That may depend on the level of control the Giants’ owners are willing to give Harbaugh and the amount of money they will be willing to spend to upgrade all the obvious holes. Will Harbaugh see Dart as giving the Giants a more prosperous future than the Dolphins will be able to?
I’d love to see Harbaugh as the Giants’ next head coach. My guess, though, is that Miami will be a more comfortable fit for him.