Races for two open San Diego City Council seats each feature several strong candidates with no clear frontrunner, but the possible entry into the District 2 race of former Coronado Mayor Richard Bailey could shake things up.
With fundraising in high gear and key endorsements expected in coming weeks, the races appear to still be wide open in District 8 in the South Bay and in District 2, which stretches from Clairemont to Point Loma.
Two other races on the June 2 primary ballot feature incumbents who are expected to comfortably win re-election: Kent Lee in central inland District 6 and Henry Foster in southeastern District 4.
Leading candidates in the District 2 race are Deputy City Attorney Nicole Crosby, former City Hall staffer Josh Coyne and Point Loma neighborhood leader Mandy Havlik.
All three are Democrats seeking to replace termed-out Jennifer Campbell on the all-Democrat council. But Bailey, a former Republican who has long made local headlines with his staunchly conservative positions, is expected by many to enter the race.
Coronado Mayor Richard Bailey speaks at Coronado Beach on Friday, Sept. 1, 2023, during a rally to demand an emergency declaration from Gov. Gavin Newsom and Congress in response to impacts from Tijuana sewage. (Kristian Carreon / For The San Diego Union-Tribune)
Bailey has moved from Coronado to the Fleet Ridge area of Point Loma. His political action committee, Common Good SD, spent about $50,000 on two recent mailers harshly criticizing San Diego leaders. And he has said he plans to launch citizens’ initiatives to repeal the city’s new trash fee and parking fee increases.
Bailey has not committed to a potential run. He said by text this week from Antarctica that he would make a decision after he returns from his trip.
Crosby, Coyne and Havlik are expected to battle this spring for the two spots in a November runoff. But that could change if Bailey runs.
While Bailey is considered a long shot to win in a district where Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly two to one, he could lock up the Republican vote and have a strong chance to finish first or second in a relatively low-turnout primary.
That could force Democrats to rally around one candidate, which some observers say is more likely to be Crosby than Coyne or Havlik.
Nicole Crosby, president of the Clairemont Town Council, opens the March 4, 2025, conference on fire safety and preparedness in Point Loma. (Tyler Faurot)
Coyne, who now works for a merchant organization called the Downtown Partnership, is considered possibly too centrist by some party leaders. And Havlik, who ran unsuccessfully for the seat in 2022, is considered too narrowly focused on housing issues.
Some party leaders prefer Crosby over Coyne, who works for a merchant organization called the Downtown San Diego Partnership and could be considered too moderate. The challenge for Havlik, who has been a vocal critic of dense housing development on the coast, could be the perception she is too narrowly focused on such issues.
But recent public backlash against City Hall over the trash fee, parking fees and other complaints could work against Crosby, who would typically be expected to tout her role as a deputy city attorney.
Josh Coyne with the Downtown San Diego Partnership led Assemblymember Matt Haney on a brief tour of City Center in downtown San Diego on Nov. 13, 2024. (Nelvin C. Cepeda / The San Diego Union-Tribune)
Backlash against City Hall could also play a key role in the District 8 race, where two chiefs of staff for City Council members are facing longtime San Ysidro school board member Antonio Martinez.
While the race is considered wide open, Martinez has more name recognition than Gerardo Ramirez, chief of staff to Councilmember Vivian Moreno, or Venus Molina, chief of staff to Councilmember Campbell.
That’s because of his role on the school board and because he twice made runoffs for the District 8 seat, losing to Moreno in both 2018 and 2022.
While Ramirez is considered a strong candidate, he has no track record as a fundraiser or campaigner.
Antonio Martinez, candidate for San Ysidro School Board (Courtesy photo)
Molina comes with the same challenges. But a political action committee supported primarily by Airbnb recently established a fund to support her campaign.
Both races are expected to soon kick into high gear.
Fundraising disclosures for the final six months of 2025 are due Jan. 31. And key endorsements are expected to be announced shortly after candidate filing closes March 5.
The county Democratic Party chose not to endorse in the District 8 primary, declaring four candidates qualified — Martinez, Ramirez, Molina and real estate agent Rafael Perez, all of them Democrats. But the party’s central committee is expected to meet in February to discuss a potential District 2 endorsement.
The city’s police union and its largest labor union, the Municipal Employees Association, have not yet endorsed in either race.
The union representing the city’s blue-collar workers — Local 127 of the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees — split its endorsement in both races. In District 8, the union co-endorsed Ramirez and Molina, and in District 2, it co-endorsed Crosby and Coyne.
The campaign will be somewhat affected by an increase in the city’s donation limits for this election cycle. The maximum donation has risen from $750 to $800, and the maximum donation from a political party has increased from $13,450 to $14,600.
In District 8, additional candidates include Miguel Ochoa, Francisco Mayoral Munoz and Kenia Peraza.
Six additional candidates have entered the District 2 race. They are Sandra Kay, Jacob Mitchell, Nicole Quillin, Michael Rickey, Daniel Smiechowski and Linda Lukacs.
Lukacs lost in a runoff for the seat in 2022 but has indicated she doesn’t plan to do any fundraising this year.
In District 6, Lee is being challenged by Jane Glasson, Mark Powell and Isaiah Cruz. In District 4, Foster is being challenged by Johnny Lee Dang, Martha Abraham, Mykel Gadson and Tylisa Suseberry.