David PurdumJan 10, 2026, 10:36 AM ET
- Joined ESPN in 2014
- Journalist covering gambling industry since 2008
Indiana‘s blowout of Oregon on Friday caused sportsbooks to significantly adjust the point spread on the College Football Playoff National Championship against Miami.
The Hoosiers opened as a 7.5-point favorite over Miami for the Jan. 19 championship game that will be played on the Hurricanes’ home field at Hard Rock Stadium. Indiana had been listed as a 5.5-point favorite over Miami in the early point spreads that were available ahead of the semifinals at DraftKings and other sportsbooks. When the line was reposted Friday night, Indiana had grown to over a touchdown favorite.
The 2-point adjustment, through the key number of 7, is reflective of how impressive Indiana was in its 56-22 rout of Oregon on Friday in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl. Over the past 10 seasons, teams favored by 7.5 points have won 75% of games straight up, according to ESPN Research.
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Miami advanced to the championship game with a thrilling 31-27 win over Ole Miss in Thursday’s Vrbo Fiesta Bowl. The Hurricanes were installed as a +260 underdog to beat Indiana outright.
The early betting at DraftKings had been balanced as of Saturday morning.
It’s one of the most improbable championship game matchups of the BCS/CFP era. Indiana entered the season as around a 150-1 long shot to win the national championship and drew little interest from the betting public. The Hurricanes began the season at 40-1 to win the title and attracted four times as much money from bettors than was wagered on Indiana at BetMGM sportsbooks.
Since 2014, only two teams with preseason title odds of 40-1 or longer have reached the championship game (Ohio State in 2014, Washington in 2023), according to SportsOddsHistory.com.