As we’ve done in the past, below are the keys and my prediction of the Pittsburgh Steelers winning (or losing) today’s game. Three things that need to happen for the Steelers to end up on the right side of the score and vice versa in their Wild Card game against the Houston Texans.
My Steelers prediction is at the bottom.
The Steelers Will Win If…
1. Aaron Rodgers’ Experience Fools Texans’ Young Secondary
Houston’s strength rests in its defense. In its pass rush, the area getting most attention, but also its secondary. These two facets go hand-in-hand, but even still, a defensive back core of All-Pro Derek Stingley Jr., Kamari Lassiter (healthy and available Monday night), Jalen Pitre and Callen Bullock is formidable.
It’s also a young group. Pitre is the “elder” at 26 years old with Bullock, Stingley and Lassier no older than 24. While they have a fair amount of starting experience, their combined 171 starts are still fewer than Aaron Rodgers’ career 257. Can Rodgers use that to his advantage? Houston also plays a static defense that doesn’t rely on overly complex schemes or wrinkles, instead trusting talent to win out. Rodgers needs to be able to fool this comparatively young crew. If he does, it could be a big day.
Another key point worth squeezing in. A faster start or put another way, avoiding a big early deficit. Pittsburgh’s been outscored an incredible 73-0 in the first quarter of its last six playoff games – all losses. The defense must step up but Rodgers needs to get this offense on the board in a hurry.
2. Texans’ Offense Becomes One-Dimensional And Folds
Houston’s rushing attack pales in comparison to Baltimore’s. Woody Marks has made plays but not a ton of them, and the ground game isn’t the Texans’ strength. Pittsburgh’s run defense has improved the last month and could shut down one dimension of Houston’s offense. Even knowing the Texans can move the ball through the air, it’s tough sledding for any team to solely rely on the pass game, especially on the road in a hostile place like Acrisure.
3. Defense Stops Switch Routes
Houston’s pass game has natural talent but combines it with sound scheme. On third down, the Texans love using bunch sets and switch routes that force defenses to adjust and match on the fly. Pittsburgh’s defense has communicated better this year than last but had its issues in Week 18 and has generally struggled against motion and these sorts of post-snap changes.
Pittsburgh must win in these moments. Either with banjo calls to pass it off, matching routes, or having appropriate spacing to avoid running into each other.
The Steelers Will Lose If…
1. Houston Doesn’t Only Score On Offense
Houston doesn’t have an elite offense, but it’s scoring doesn’t come just from the offense. The Texans’ defense has a pick-six and three fumbles returned for a touchdown. That’s one of the NFL’s top numbers.
While rookie receiver Jaylin Noel hasn’t scored in the return game, he’s a threat. He sports healthy averages in the kick and punt return game with 50-plus returns in both. That can flip field position in a hurry.
Though this is on offense, kicker Ka’imi’ Fairbairn is tied-fourth in the NFL with nine boots from 50-plus yards this year. Doing so in Pittsburgh will be harder but there’s a lot of ways this group can put up points or at least put themselves int position to score. That can be the difference in the postseason.
2. Pittsburgh’s ‘Chip Plan’ Limits Offense
Pittsburgh didn’t have to worry about a top pass rush threat against Baltimore, making it no coincidence that RB Kenneth Gainwell had a prolific day in the passing game. That task will be tougher against a Houston rush boasting fierce talent at defensive end in Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson. Officially, two All-Pros.
That means dedicated more chip and help. That could dredge back up the issues of Week 17 against Cleveland, limiting route trees for tight ends and backs. Even with DK Metcalf back, undoubtedly a big boost, it’s still going to be a tough challenge if Rodgers can’t spread the ball around like he prefers.
3. Secondary Can’t Stop Houston’s Size
Pittsburgh has faced talented receivers, but hasn’t dealt with the size Houston’s wide receivers have in a while. Nico Collins is 6’4. So is Jayden Higgins. Collins is Tee Higgins-like and will be a handful. Higgins is ascending and tight end Dalton Schultz finished third at his position in receptions.
The Steelers can match with size at cornerback but there’s little defense for a jump ball where a receive just goes up and makes a play. Houston is certainly capable of producing them.
Prediction
Steelers: 24
Texans: 16
Season Prediction Record
4-13
I know you are all very disappointed in my prediction. I started the week feeling like I was going to pick Houston. The more I thought about it and the more I studied the Texans, the more confident I became in the Steelers. On Monday night, Pittsburgh will have to defeat Houston and the Kozora Curse. Just imagine if they do. Talk about a team of destiny.