Which teams will make
it through the league phase of the 2025-26 UEFA
Champions League and into the knockouts? Well, you can find the
Opta supercomputer’s Champions League predictions and points
projections on this page.
The UEFA Champions League is back after a six-week break, with
plenty still to be decided across the final two matchdays of the
2025-26 league phase.
Finishing in the top eight ensures immediate qualification for
the last 16, while teams between ninth and 24th will contest the
Champions League play-off round for the right to join the leading
sides in the knockout stage.
Just like last season, there is no more Europa League safety net
either – the bottom 12 from the 36 and the eight teams who lose in
the play-off round will all be immediately eliminated from
continental football for this season.
The Opta
supercomputer can simulate the remainder of the 2025-26 UCL league
phase 10,000 times to work out the projected points tallies of
every team and their likelihood of making it through to the
knockouts. Here are the latest results.
Top 8 – Automatic Qualification to the
Knockouts
Arsenal
sit pretty at the top of the league phase table, winning every
point available from their first six games. With a maximum 18
points, they are now two games away from becoming the first side to
win every league phase match in a season within the new format,
after Liverpool fell just short last season, losing on Matchday 8
to PSV after winning their first seven games.
The Gunners have enjoyed an exceptional 2025-26 campaign,
topping the Premier League table by seven points after 22 games to
go along with their 100% success rate in the UCL.
Should they overcome Inter on MD7, Mikel Arteta will be
massively confident of finishing top of the league phase with eight
wins from eight, as they host Kazakh minnows Kairat in their final
game. The Opta supercomputer is bullish on their chance of
finishing top of the league too, giving the London club a 93.9%
chance of doing so.
While it’s not mathematically impossible for them to fall out of
the top eight if they suffer disastrous heavy defeats to both Inter
and Kairat, the supercomputer didn’t see it happen in any of its
most recent 10,000 simulations, with Arsenal progressing to the
round of 16 in 100% of sims.
The battle to be among the seven teams to join them in the last
16 is far more intriguing, with Bayern
Munich in pole position to progress alongside Arsenal.
The reigning Bundesliga champions have 15 points from their six
games so far, giving them a two-point cushion over the chasing pack
of Paris
Saint-Germain, Manchester
City and Atalanta.
All four sides are guaranteed more European football after January,
as they are assured of at least a spot in the play-offs, but they
will all be hoping for automatic qualification to the round of
16.
While PSG (83.0%), Bayern (99.1%) and Man City (89.9%) are all
given a greater-than 80% chance of finishing inside the top eight,
Atalanta are less fancied (59.9%). Although the Serie A club have
two opponents both currently outside the top 24 in Athletic Club
and Union Saint-Gilloise, their opposition will be looking to sneak
into the play-offs and could prove tricky.
Despite entering MD7 outside of the top eight places, Liverpool
are the fifth-most likely side to finish between first and eighth
according to the Opta supercomputer (63.4%). They face Marseille
away on Wednesday before hosting Qarabağ on 28 January.
Barcelona are currently two points outside the top eight as
things stand and will need to win at least one of their remaining
matches – both very winnable games against Slavia Prague (A) and
Copenhagen (H) – to stand a chance of finishing in the automatic
last-16 qualification spots.
Record winners Real Madrid are currently seventh in the table
but will be hoping to win their final two games – against Monaco
(H) and Benfica (A) – to fend off a chasing pack of eight teams
that are within two points of them.
Madrid currently have a 58.3% chance of making the top eight,
while Barcelona failed to do so more often (51.3%) than they were
successful (48.7%) in the Opta supercomputer sims.
9th to 24th – Qualification to the Knockout
Play-Offs
Sixteen points was enough to secure a top-eight finish in the
UCL league phase last season, but there is every chance that might
not be the case this time around.
Teams as far down as Barcelona in 15th can still hit the
16-point mark with two matches left to play, and that points tally
might only secure a play-off place in 2025-26.
The most likely teams to reach the play-off round are the five
sides currently on nine points from six games: Marseille, Juventus,
Galatasaray, Monaco and Bayer Leverkusen. Reaching the top eight
now feels extremely unlikely, but so does failing to pick up enough
points to finish inside the bottom 12 spots and therefore be
eliminated.
Last season’s losing finalists Inter may still have to navigate
the play-offs too, despite currently sitting in sixth place with
two matchdays remaining. Their issue is that they face the current
best team in the world (according to the
Opta Power Rankings, at least), Arsenal, before a difficult
away trip to Borussia Dortmund on MD8. That fixture could
potentially be a winner-takes-all clash in the battle for the top
eight.
25th to 36th –
Elimination
It’s going to take a miracle for Kairat or Villarreal to
continue their Champions League journey past the league phase in
2025-26.
Both sides have won just a single point from their six games so
far. They’ll need to win both their final two matches and hope that
a host of results go their way for that to happen.
The Opta supercomputer didn’t see Kairat finish in the play-off
spots across any of its most recent 10,000 simulations.
Villarreal achieved an extremely unlikely play-off berth in 10
of the 10,000 sims, but they’ll have to beat both Ajax (H) and
Bayer Leverkusen (A) and hope that the 13 teams above them
in the table have disastrous finishes to the league phase campaign
to stand any chance of performing one of the most extraordinary
turnarounds in UCL history.
There is also little chance we’ll see Bodø/Glimt (1.5%), Ajax
(2.4%) or Slavia Prague (2.6%) progress past the league phase,
while Eintracht Frankfurt (17.9%) and Athletic Club (19.2%) are the
other two teams with a less than 20% chance of progressing out of
the league phase to the play-offs.
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