Are Long Island’s municipalities prepared for what may be an eastward migration of New York City residents unseen since the days American GIs returned from World War II?
The stunning win of Zohran Mamdani in the city’s Democratic mayoral primary has set off political tremors among city residents who are uneasy with his progressive agenda. Political demographers are reporting that wealthy neighborhoods, such as the Upper East Side in Manhattan, failed to support Mamdani, as did most Staten Islanders. The middle class neighborhoods of Queens and Brooklyn fractured their primary vote along racial, economic, and ethnic lines.
The results suggest those who have an incentive to leave the city may well do so rather than live with Mamdani’s progressive policies should he win in November.
Consider his agenda: He has backed away from his previous rhetoric about defunding the police and now references a new “department of community safety.” He proposes free buses, frozen rents, low-cost city-run grocery stores, and increased income taxes on those earning a million dollars or more. These are the people he has defined as wealthy who can pay for his proposals. He is also advocating a hike in the city’s corporate tax rate, creating one more motive for executives to leave Gotham.
One can also envision Mamdani advocating that a portion of the MTA’s current budget be redirected to the city’s mass transit system. If successful, that could leave the LIRR and Metro North to help make up the shortfall by increasing fares on their suburban ridership.
Given the scope of his proposed agenda, Mamdani could potentially spark an exodus of city residents and businesses seeking the shelter of suburban safety and stability.
Are Long Island’s municipalities prepared for such an opportunity?
In an era when the region’s housing shortage has reached crisis levels, when multifamily housing proposals continue to be stymied by the combined forces of politics and NIMBY, and when regulatory reviews and approvals can take years, are Nassau and Suffolk capable of taking advantage of what could be an unprecedented influx of new residents?
In 1947, World War II veterans living in city tenements put on their uniforms to stand inside Hempstead Town Hall, to advocate for an unprecedented proposal that would be called Levittown. Town officials responded by approving construction of a planned community, initially proposed for 2,000 rental homes. Eventually, more than 17,000 homes for sale would be completed by 1951. With their simple but functional design, preplanned parks, and shopping arcades, modern suburbia was created, and Long Island became the home of thousands of former New York City families.
Ironically, today some of the children and grandchildren of those Levittown veterans confront the very idea of adding residential housing for a new generation. They are not alone. In Huntington Town, a recently concluded primary for supervisor saw the incumbent demonized for supporting the repurposing of empty and aging office buildings. Fortunately, voters saw the intellectual dishonesty of that negative campaign and gave Supervisor Ed Smyth his party’s nomination. Some communities have welcomed transit-oriented residential development adjacent to LIRR branches, suggesting that with the right location, development approvals are possible.
In 2026, a Mamdani mayoralty may provide Long Island with a historic opportunity to become a refuge for New York City businesses and residents wary of a leader who is a member of the Democratic Socialists of America. What is required is the bicounty vision and will to recognize this moment at a time that may well define our region for generations to come.
This guest essay reflects the views of Ed Blumenfeld, president and founder of BDG Ltd., Syosset, and a founding member of the Association for a Better Long Island.