The expectations for the 2025-26 Pittsburgh Penguins are pretty clear at this point. Nobody expects them to win. There is clearly a rebuild of some degree going on, and every single insider report indicates they are the one team in the NHL that isn’t really making an effort to improve their roster for this season.
Their offseason moves have mostly been a repeat of last year’s where they take on short-term, reclamation projects that they might be able to flip at the deadline for second-and third-round picks.
They did not trade any of their boatload of draft picks this summer for immediate help.
Any (or all) of Rickard Rakell, Bryan Rust and Erik Karlsson could all still get traded at any point, weakning the short-term roster even further.
It’s PROBABLY going to be another tough season, but with a potentially big long-term reward at the end of it thanks to a top-heavy 2026 NHL Draft class that could even result in the big prize of Gavin McKenna.
All of that is the likely path. It is what we should be expecting.
But hockey can sometimes be a weird, random sport, and what if something really weird, random and unexpected happens and the 2025-26 Penguins are not … totally terrible.
What if they end up being kind of good?
As the roster currently sits right now, there is a non-zero chance that could happen.
It might not be a high chance.
It might only be in the single digits.
But it is there.
For one, a lot of the Penguins’ underlying numbers in 2024-25 were respectable, especially as they related to generating offense and scoring chances. They were right around the 50 percent mark (or above) with expected goals shares, scoring chance shares and high-danger scoring chances shares, largely due to their ability to create opportunities.
They also saw a huge power play improvement and were sixth in the NHL in success rate.
The two biggest things that crushed them were an extremely low team shooting percentage at 5-on-5 and terrible goaltending (to go with some bad defense).
But they also still have Sidney Crosby — still a top-10 player in the NHL — and that is going to make it very difficult for the team to truly bottom out. He’s still going to play at an elite level, and he’s still going to shift some games in the Penguins’ favor. He’s still that good and that dominant.
He’s also not the only good player on this team, especially right now as its currently constructed.
Sure, Rust and Rakell have their names on the trade rumor mill. But Kyle Dubas also doesn’t seem like he’s in a hurry to trade one — or both — if he doesn’t get the offer that he wants.
As long as those two guys are on the roster, and along with the Crosby, the forward group of this team isn’t terrible. Especially with a couple of promising young players in Ville Koivunen and Rutger McGroarty in a position to take a step forward.
If one of Rust or Rakell is still on the team — or both — and the two young forwards build off of what they did at the end of the 2024-25 season, this is suddenly a pretty formidable group of forwards in the top-six.
And that does not even get into somebody like Thomas Novak, who the Penguins seem to like an awful lot and we did not get to see much of last season, a veteran like Anthony Mantha and the biggest X-factor of them all — Evgeni Malkin.
Again, this is a team that had decent underlying numbers and a strong power play. It’s not like they were the Chicago Blackhawks or San Jose Sharks. There’s still talent here. They still do some good things. And now they have a new head coach coming in that might bring some fresh ideas, a fresh perspective, and might be able to get something else out of this group that Mike Sullivan was no longer able to get.
If they get anything other than the 28th ranked goaltending in the NHL (by save percentage) that is going to change a lot of one-goal games that they lost. Nobody should trust Tristan Jarry, but he has had moments of success in the NHL. Joel Blomqvist may have been surpassed by Sergei Murashov on the team’s prospect list, but goalies can be unpredictable and guys can randomly emerge at the position when you’re not expecting it. Nothing changes a team (and nothing changes a team quicker) than goaltending.
Granted, all of this is a lot of “ifs” and “best-case scenario” type of stuff. And the more of those things a team has to rely on, the more likely it is not all of them are going to go your way. But it would certainly throw a wrench into the lottery expectations.
The Penguins farm system has improved dramatically over the past year-and-a-half, but they are still lacking a franchise player at the top. The expectation is that they will get it in the 2026 class, and I think that’s what Dubas is probably banking on whether he says it out loud or not.
That’s why it would be fascinating to see what would happen if the season progresses and the Penguins are winning more games than expected.
Does management start selling off players at that point?
Do they get more aggressive in their attempts to trade Rust or Rakell now before it gets to that point?
I used to be a member of “team tank” years ago when it comes to rebuilding teams. But I’ve seen so many of those things fail as teams can’t break the cycle of losing and get into a never-ending run of failed seasons. When losing becomes encouraged, it’s hard for it to ever stop being unacceptable. Losing breeds losers. There’s a reason teams like Chicago, Detroit, Buffalo and Anaheim (among others) are all stuck in their current ruts and still years away from serious contention.
I also know you need franchise players and superstars to really bring a rebuild together and eventually become a championship team. And the only way to really get those is at the top of the draft.
But even the worst record in the league doesn’t guarantee you anything.
It’s a true damned if you do, damned if you don’t sort of situation.
I do not expect the Penguins to make the playoffs or even really contend for a spot. That should not be the expectation.
Even so, this team still has Sidney Crosby. Until it trades Bryan Rust and/or Rickard Rakell it still has a couple of really good top-six wingers. It still has some variables and players that could really develop quickly this season or perform better than expected. All of that could change the math on this season. It is not likely. It is still possible.