Paul Laurence Dunbar High School teacher Edriana Cofer’s biggest fear as Texas takes control of Fort Worth ISD is losing her autonomy to help students.
The unknown of what’s next had Dolores Huerta Elementary teacher Angela Andrews thinking about jobs outside FWISD.
Both educators shared their angst about the takeover during a Texas Education Agency-hosted November town hall that was punctuated by residents repeatedly bringing up the state’s intervention in Houston ISD.
But Houston is not destiny for Fort Worth, according to three University of Houston professors researching the impact Texas taking control of schools has had on enrollment and teachers in the state’s largest city. Who leads can determine whether a takeover triggers an exodus of students and teachers or stabilizes a system under pressure, they said.
Houston’s intervention differs from Fort Worth’s, research scientist Toni Templeton said. The takeover in Houston was prolonged over four years, delayed by lawsuits trying to stop the intervention. Fort Worth’s path has been swift, as the takeover launched in October and the appointment of a superintendent and board of managers is expected in the spring.
“The takeover could be very different in Fort Worth than it is in HISD,” Templeton said.
The researchers’ conclusions are based on a new report examining how Houston ISD’s enrollment and teacher workforce declined during the first two years of state control under Superintendent Mike Miles — a period they say offers early but important signals for districts like Fort Worth that may soon face state oversight.
“ A different leader with a different kind of philosophy within the administration might lead to a very different outcome in Fort Worth,” said Blake Heller, a public policy professor.
Enrollment declines — but how steep?
Houston ISD was already losing students before the state takeover began in 2023, a result of the same factors at play in FWISD such as declining birth rates, people waiting longer to have kids and the affordability of homes.
But the report found those losses accelerated after the state installed a board of managers and appointed Miles as superintendent, increasing from a loss of about 2% annually before the takeover to roughly 3.5% per year afterward.
In two years, the district lost more than 13,000 students — about 7% of its enrollment.
The steepest declines occurred at key transition points, including early elementary grades and ninth grade, when families are most likely to reassess their schooling options. Yet, the researchers said families began exercising that choice across a wider range of grades following the takeover.
“I also think that what we saw post-takeover — or before the takeover — is most of those people who were leaving were choosing to leave in the early grades,” economics professor Willa Friedman said. “After the takeover, you see a lot more people exercising that decision-making in the upper grades as well.”
Another trend researchers noticed was among schools part of Houston’s New Education System that feature scripted lesson plans and materials. Less autonomous schools saw sharper declines than campuses with greater freedoms, the report shows.
“There are some schools that might really benefit from a heavy hand in turning around a school culture and changing practices that were not driving results for students,” Heller said. “But there are other schools where this type of intervention amounts to kind of messing with a good thing. We don’t want to mess with success.”
Enrollment losses carry financial consequences. Texas funds public schools based on student attendance, meaning sustained declines can quickly strain district budgets — especially in large districts like Houston and Fort Worth with significant fixed costs.
Fort Worth ISD has experienced its own enrollment declines in recent years, driven by a combination of demographic shifts, competition from nearby districts and charter schools, and broader statewide trends. District leaders have acknowledged the challenge publicly, warning that fewer students translate into less funding while many costs remain difficult to scale back quickly.
In response, officials have pointed to a mix of cost controls and longer-term strategies aimed at stabilizing enrollment, including campus consolidations, program redesigns and efforts to strengthen early literacy and student support services.
Those changes are intended to improve academic outcomes and retain families in a competitive education market, district leaders have said.
Teacher workforce shifts
Teacher Marissa Banks speaks with students Kevin Hernandez and Aidyn Green about pharmacy supplies at Fort Worth ISD’s Texas Academy of Biomedical Sciences on Nov. 19, 2025. (Maria Crane | Fort Worth Report/CatchLight Local/Report for America)
The report also documents major changes to Houston ISD’s teacher workforce following the takeover.
Before state control, the district typically employed fewer than 100 uncertified teachers in a given year. Since then, that number has risen into the thousands, reflecting a shift toward a less experienced and less credentialed workforce, the researchers said.
“If you’re an optimist, you’ll say, ‘Oh, this is a reflection of an innovative approach to staffing and tapping new pools of talent,’” Heller said.
Supporters of Houston ISD’s approach argue that centralized lesson plans and coaching models reduce reliance on teacher experience, the researchers said. But they also noted that decades of education research link teacher certification and experience to student outcomes, particularly in high-need schools.
”If you’re a pessimist, you point at prior research that suggests least certified, least experienced teachers also have the worst results when it comes to student performance,” Heller said.
Houston’s teacher workforce could be a warning sign for Fort Worth, Friedman said.
“One of the things we’re seeing here is that it is possible to effectively run out of certified teachers,” Friedman said. “An intervention that keeps teachers interested in continuing to be part of the district is going to have a very different effect than one that maybe encourages teachers to decide they want a different profession or work in a different place.”
In large urban districts, partnerships with universities, nonprofits and teacher preparation programs often play a role in recruiting educators, supporting new teachers and expanding student services.
Fort Worth ISD has already begun pursuing that approach. Earlier this year, the district announced a partnership with Tarleton State University aimed at recruiting district employees into teaching through a “grow your own” apprenticeship program, an effort designed to expand the local teacher pipeline and support retention in high-need schools.
Fort Worth ISD could avoid Houston’s fate by further embracing these partnerships and associated state dollars, Templeton said.
“You’re solving lots of different problems in one go,” she said. “You don’t necessarily have to go out and look for new teachers every year if you’ve got this really well-designed pipeline.”
For now, FWISD remains under local control with oversight from a conservator. The appointments of managers and superintendent are expected in the coming months. Then the takeover will be in full swing.
Whether the intervention succeeds depends on something state officials and new FWISD leaders have to earn from the community, according to the researchers.
Trust.
Matthew Sgroi is an education reporter for the Fort Worth Report. Contact him at matthew.sgroi@fortworthreport.org or @matthewsgroi1.
Jacob Sanchez is education editor for the Fort Worth Report. Contact him at jacob.sanchez@fortworthreport.org or @_jacob_sanchez.
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