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For the second week running, the NASCAR Cup Series forgoes a traditional oval track for road course racing. This week, the series heads to Sonoma Raceway in Northern California. Defending race winner Kyle Larson and last week’s winner Shane Van Gisbergen lead the list of race favorites, but several other big-name drivers fill out a loaded list of favorites.
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Kyle Larson led just 19 of the 110 laps at Sonoma in 2024, but he delivered when it mattered and held on for a win. This time around, Larson will undoubtedly face a tough test from some of the series’ best drivers.
In this list, we’re counting down the top 10 betting favorites to win the Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma.
10) AJ Allmendinger – +1800
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Some, Allmendinger has never won in wine country. But it hasn’t been for a lack of speed. He’s qualified on the front row at Sonoma three times in his career and inside the top five six times.
Last year, Allmendinger started 11th before bringing home a sixth-place finish for the second consecutive year.
While he may not be the biggest favorite to win, an Allmendinger top 10 bet at -150 (via DraftKings) seems like solid value, and nobody would be shocked if he were standing in victory lane come Sunday evening.
T6) Chris Buescher – +1400
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Nobody in the entirety of the NASCAR Cup Series has been as consistent as Christ Buescher on road courses in recent years.
The RFK Racing star has 15 top-10 finishes in his last 20 road course starts and picked up his first victory on a road course last year at Watkins Glen.
Buescher led 32 laps last year at Sonoma and won the second stage before bringing home a third-place finish. If you’re looking for good value to win, this might just be your best bet.
T6) Tyler Reddick – +1400
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Who was the only driver to lead more laps than Buescher last year in Sonoma? That would be Tyler Reddick, who started on the front row, led a race-high 35 laps, and won the first stage.
Ultimately, Reddick faded late and brought home a solid, albeit disappointing, eighth-place finish.
He’s coming off a third-place finish a week ago in Chicago, however, and appears to be trending toward what would be his first win of the 2025 season.
T6) Christopher Bell – +1400
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Bell has finished ninth in each of the last two races at Sonoma, but don’t discount his chances to win this time around.
The Joe Gibbs Racing star has finished in the top two in three of the last four Cup Series road course races and was on track for a top-10 finish a week ago in Chicago before getting caught up in a late wreck with Austin Hill.
T6) Chase Elliott – +1400 
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Chase Elliott checked in at No. 5 on our recent list of the 10 greatest road course racers in NASCAR Cup Series history. So it’s no surprise to see him on this list.
Surprisingly, none of his seven road course victories in the Cup Series have come at Sonoma, but that doesn’t mean he hasn’t been strong at the track. Elliott has six top-10 finishes in eight starts at Sonoma, including four top-five finishes and a runner-up finish in 2021.
Last year, he both started and finished fourth while running up front for the entirety of the race.
5) William Byron – +1200
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Seeing Byron so high on this list came as a bit of a surprise to me. His otherwise remarkable season has hit a bit of a wall of late, including a last-place finish a week ago in Chicago after a mechanical failure took him out on lap 1.
Byron also wasn’t much of a factor in last year’s race, starting sixth but finishing 30th without any stage points. In fact, he has just one top-10 finish (9th in 2022) in six career Sonoma starts.
But Hendrick Motorsports always seems to bring speed to Sonoma, and Byron finished 9th, 2nd, and 3rd in the three road courses preceding Chicago, so maybe this presents an opportunity to get back on track in a big way.
T3) Ty Gibbs – +1100
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Somehow, Ty Gibbs still has not picked up his first victory in the NASCAR Cup Series. But it sure feels like a matter of time.
Gibbs finished as the runner-up to Van Gisbergen a week ago in Chicago and led 27 laps in Mexico City. He’s established himself as one of the series’ better road racers and seems to be trending in the right direction.
Unfortunately for Gibbs, he finished 35th at Sonoma a year ago after an early crash ruined a 10th-place qualifying performance.
T3) Michael McDowell – +1100
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Like Gibbs, McDowell is one of the best road course racers the NASCAR Cup Series has to offer.
He’s finished in the top 10 at Sonoma in each of the last three races there, including a runner-up finish a year ago and a third-place finish in 2022. McDowell led 31 laps and won the first stage in Chicago a week ago before a mid-race issue caused him to finish 22 laps down and outside the top 30.
Sonoma presents a bounce-back opportunity for McDowell, and it would be surprising if he weren’t a contender for the victory.
2) Kyle Larson – +550
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Last year’s race winner is good on just about every road course, but especially at Sonoma. He has two victories on his home state’s road course, both since joining Hendrick Motorsports, and he’s only finished outside of the top 10 once in those four races.
In fact, Larson has always had speed at Sonoma. In 10 qualifying sessions at the track, he’s sat on the pole five times and qualified in the top five all but once.
Safe to say, Larson won’t be short on speed this weekend, and if he stays out of trouble, he’ll be a serious threat for the win.
1) Shane Van Gisbergen – +130
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At +130, Shane Van Gisbergen is potentially the biggest favorite to win a NASCAR Cup Series race in modern history, and it’s hard to argue with the odds.
Van Gisbergen has nine road course starts in the Cup Series, and he’s won three times, including the last two times out. Van Gisbergen was dominant in victories in both Mexico City and Chicago and is looking to make it three in a row at road courses this weekend.
However, if there’s any reason for skepticism, it’s that Van Gisbergen has never raced at Sonoma in the Cup Series, although he did win the NASCAR Xfinity Series race at the track a year ago.